It's over

[starfro]

From within the Government the figures they are seeing suggest that the virus is receding far far quicker than their experts predicted.

Christ Whitty has come out and said that we'll never see a lockdown again.

We could release everything now, like Israel did when they were at a similar vaccination level, and see no uptick in cases. I'm sure they are going to continue to follow the very conservative roadmap, but really there is no need, as immunity levels from both vaccination and infection are sufficient.

Great news!

I'm seeing lots of headlines regarding Chris Witty saying no more lockdowns, but can't find any actual quotes or video footage. Can anyone point me to any?

I have everything crossed that we're coming to the end of this.

It's a strong start but because this is a global situation it's not really over until it's over for everyone, globally.

Why are people so bothered about cases rising, the point is hospitalisations and deaths are NOT! Cases are irrelevant when mild, as we know!

Hospitalisations and deaths follow infections by several weeks so deaths now reflects infections many weeks ago.

Since infections can and do (and have 3 times in the last year) grow exponentially to very high levels, obviously we still need restrictions. The scientists all say far higher numbers need to be vaccinated to get to any level of herd immunity (and Manaus, Brazil shows that even 70% population with antibodies wasn't enough to stop a second wave).

We ARE getting there the absolute worst thing that could happen would be for people to give up with the restrictions. Lots of countries have shown they can manage covid WITHOUT lockdowns (and hence without the economic and social damage we've had) but they do take restrictions seriously.

We are getting there, but are some way off the levels of vaccinated population required to say it's all over. Chris Whitty may well have said no more lockdowns - but that is assuming a level of restrictions remain and reasonable levels of adherence to these, I have no doubt (like in Korea).

@IloveJKRowling it’s not just vaccinated people. The majority of people who have recovered from infection are immune too. The latest report from the ONS showed around 50% of people had antibodies in the U.K. either from vaccination or previous infection. They also pointed out that many more people could have T cell immunity even if antibody levels had reduced so we could be at much higher levels of immunity.

@DumplingsAndStew there's a video of what he said here.

metro.co.uk/2021/04/02/no-more-uk-lockdowns-as-covid-will-be-treated-like-flu-14346326/

the pandemic - in the UK - is as good as over

but I suspect the restrictions imposed upon us will continue for a long time

Don't get carried away. This is just the beginning of the end.

@starfro

From within the Government the figures they are seeing suggest that the virus is receding far far quicker than their experts predicted.

Christ Whitty has come out and said that we'll never see a lockdown again.

We could release everything now, like Israel did when they were at a similar vaccination level, and see no uptick in cases. I'm sure they are going to continue to follow the very conservative roadmap, but really there is no need, as immunity levels from both vaccination and infection are sufficient.

Great news!

Don't hold your breath Whitty like Fauci flip flops all over the place when it suits.

Whitty around April last year..."the chances of dying from corona are low"

twitter.com/BlackDahlia____/status/1260510744635990017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1260510744635990017%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dosbods.co.uk%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FBlackDahlia____%2Fstatus%2F1260510744635990017%3Fs%3D20

At 40, I have my second dose of vaccine booked in just before the June 21st release date, and will already have significant immunity by the time my children return to school after Easter. By June 21st the vast majority of vulnerable and 50+ will have had their second vaccine and the majority of the lower risk, younger population have significant protection from their first dose. Cases don't rise substantially in the summer and all demographics will have been vaccinated and offered both rounds by the higher-risk season of autumn.

For better or for worse, the roadmap has been accepted and organisations are planning to that timescale. I don't see justification for any restrictions beyond that point, or introducing any new restrictions such as vaccine passports.

If we want to save the NHS for winters to come, it needs funding by a fully functional economy.

I hope you're right OP. Optimists are a good thing.

@bishbashbosh99

Why are people so bothered about cases rising, the point is hospitalisations and deaths are NOT! Cases are irrelevant when mild, as we know!

To be fair its how the Goverment and media have reported this.

The report death rates when they are high, then when they drop they focus on cases, then when they drop they focus on hospitalisations then it repeats to whatever has the best headlines

I’m a GP and a natural pessimist but I do share OP’s optimism at present for the UK. The signs are definitely good and I agree it is one thing the government have done right. The main worry now for me is variants that have developed or are developing in other countries where it is spreading like wildfire, and which escape our vaccination cover. That literally could send us right back to square one of the whole thing. And we can’t practically isolate ourselves from the rest of the world, especially for prolonged periods.

Lockdowns worked but they are a blunt tool born of desperation and should never have been needed in the first place if we hadn’t done everything else wrong. Maybe the first lockdown was needed as the situation was so new (although I still think we could have done more to prevent getting into the dire situation we found ourselves in in March 2020). The second and third should not have been needed and would not have been if other measures had been implemented and adhered to properly.

However successful we are in our vaccination programme etc, it does not cancel out for me the unforgivable errors made by this government over much of the past year.

People keep saying about the cases 'but very few deaths' and it's true, but remember the deaths come quite a long while after the cases.

If one person catches Coronavirus at the start of April, and get very unwell, it might be 2 weeks in before they end up going to hospital, and if they get seriously ill there, they're unlikely to die before mid May, or even later. So while I'm cautiously happy that the numbers are going down, we really can't tell about hospital intakes and death rates quite yet. The deaths happening now are of people who caught it in January/February.

Saying that, I am relieved at the rates going down. I do wonder, though, how many are being caught, as the lateral flow tests aren't very accurate, and because of not enough support, people with symptoms aren't reporting it. But at least the vaccine rollout is getting better and better each day.

The case/hospitalisation/death rate all tie in together. You can’t interpret the situation fully with any one figure alone.

We expect the hospitalisation/death rate to fall with vaccinations but to actually prove this we need to be aware of case rates. Other countries are good indicators but they don’t have our specific set of factors including, but not limited to, variants and which vaccination has been used.

We have sound predictions and models but we still need to gather evidence through monitoring and be alert for unexpected outcomes for some time yet.

On lockdowns, the biggest lesson seems to have been to lock right down on foreign travel, to do lots of testing at airports and customs, and to focus all the money and effort on stopping variants coming in.

Yes, it'll slow things down, even more because of Brexit slowing things down too, but if we can get to a stage where we have a pretty healthy population who don't need lockdowns, and really well-tested borders, then it'll be far better for people's wellbeing and for the economy. These half-hearted measures, rather than quick, strict lockdown in the beginning, have strung this out and cost lots of lives in the process.

I think it's all over too, but not in the way you meant it Op.

Whilst it’s good news we need to follow the road map. Cases are going up again in my area. I am hoping the two week break will have an effect in stopping further cases

[quote rizzo23]@DumplingsAndStew there's a video of what he said here.

metro.co.uk/2021/04/02/no-more-uk-lockdowns-as-covid-will-be-treated-like-flu-14346326/
[/quote]
Am I looking at the right video? He only mentioned variants etc in that video - i didn't hear anything about lockdowns.

@dementedma

Can you ask Nicola Sturgeon to release her death grip on Scotland then? Vague mutterings about office workers "maybe" starting a phased return at the end of June! FFS! Yet we can get our hair cut and see physios and go to shops. It seriously boils my piss to be still working from my bedroom after 13 months

The priority is schools though, and I think that’s correct. We need secondary schools to go back properly first before we do anything else major.

With immunity levels at around 50%, we're nowhere near close to herd immunity yet although vaccines will certainly be having an impact.

WIth R hovering just below 1 (nationally) DESPITE the vaccines, it's quite clear if restrictions were raised quickly now it would rise and cases would surge.

Whilst the number of Covid deaths are definitely declining the societal and economic fallout from the lockdowns and restrictions are VERY far from over and in fact are just starting.

There is real anger and division across the country from young people feeling they have been unfairly sacrificed to poor and BAME communities feeling they have suffered disproportionately etc. I would not be supposed if the recent disturbances in Bristol are just the start of a summer of angry disorder by young people in other cities and whilst I would strongly disagree with such violent actions I can fully understand the anger.

In summary and as someone said to me a while back "enjoy Covid because the future is going to be hell".

@Mygardenisnotperfect

I’m a GP and a natural pessimist but I do share OP’s optimism at present for the UK. The signs are definitely good and I agree it is one thing the government have done right. The main worry now for me is variants that have developed or are developing in other countries where it is spreading like wildfire, and which escape our vaccination cover. That literally could send us right back to square one of the whole thing. And we can’t practically isolate ourselves from the rest of the world, especially for prolonged periods.

Lockdowns worked but they are a blunt tool born of desperation and should never have been needed in the first place if we hadn’t done everything else wrong. Maybe the first lockdown was needed as the situation was so new (although I still think we could have done more to prevent getting into the dire situation we found ourselves in in March 2020). The second and third should not have been needed and would not have been if other measures had been implemented and adhered to properly.

Agreed completely.

People mistake the criticism of lockdowns as an argument to say we shouldn't have used them.

It's the equivalent of criticising emergency stops as being bad for vehicles so should be avoided - which is true and if everyone drove correctly and looked ahead, there'd never be any need for them. But if you ARE driving too fast around a bend and there's something in the road, you wouldn't NOT hit that brake pedal because it's bad for the car..

The main reason for the first lockdown was that the government decided that the best way to deal with the virus was to let it spread quickly - covid parties were considered at one point. Presumably, the hope was that establishing herd immunity in this way quicker than other nations would give the UK an economic advantage - and then Ferguson's model demonstrated how many would die in this future, but by then it was too late to do anything except lockdown.

@1dayatatime

There is real anger and division across the country from young people feeling they have been unfairly sacrificed

I don't believe there is - most young people have elderly parents/grand parents and fully understand WHY restrictions were brought in. I noted that most of those at the anti-lockdown protests were middle aged to seniors.

What there IS likely to be is chaos. Nottingham parks showed that. If foreign hols are off the cards, then people are going to let their hair down in the UK and sadly that's going to mean some atrocious scenes in our seaside resorts and national parks.