EU threaten to cut off vaccine supply to the UK 2

[Baileysforchristmas]

As the other thread is full

www.politico.eu/article/commission-proposes-six-week-vaccine-export-ban-amid-fears-of-trade-war/

I think the essential difference between the two approaches (U.K. v EU) is that the EU thought it was a buyers market ( hence more relaxed approach emphasis on bloc population numbers, negotiating price down etc) whereas the U.K. understood it was a sellers market ( Contagion film apparently the light bulb moment for Matt Hancock at least!)

Curious.. the irony of questioning my English considering the incoherence of the original sentence but okay then

I'd like to say that those are the views of an incredibly unpleasant bigot.

Also curious, "read my post, I didn't actually wish that"

Or maybe you're just a certain age

I'm going to tangent slightly, if I may.

Az, we know, is being sold at cost. I can see that, if you're baking buns, working out the cost per bun is fairly simple. We know that vaccine manufacture is more complicated.

We know vaccine is made in batches, with each batch having an unpredictable yield. Presumably costs per batch are relatively consistent. Your electricity, heating, rent costs are going to all be per hour. So will your staffing costs. You're going to pay the same ground rent no matter how productive your bubbling green* bottle of vaccine-stuff is. Bottling costs will be per dose, but a lot of the fixed costs will be relatively static per batch, I would have thought?

That means that, if a batch produces 50,000 doses, then each doses share of fixed costs is twice what it would be if it churned out 100,000. (Made up numbers - I have no idea what the real yield is.)

We know already that Az's estimates on how much each batch would produce are higher than what has happened. Presumably that means that the cost per dose is lower than it's turned out to be?

In addition, I suspect they've spent a fortune on lawyers in the past few weeks. Plus the costs of storing the Halix output in fridges for who knows how long.

So I'm guessing, right now, Az are running at a big loss on this.

I know there's provision in the Az/EU contract for Az to effectively demand more money if it isn't breaking even. I can see that going down like a lead balloon right now!

Does anyone have any information/insight on this aspect of things and how it's playing out in reality?

(*If it's neither green nor bubbling then please don't tell me. I have images of disney-esque mad scientists stroking their luminous testtubs and cackling, and I don't want my illusions burst.)

Going forward, if the UK gets more involved with Curevac we need to insist that there is a manufacturing facility here - as things stand I wouldn't trust Germany to not take our investment and our share of finished product.

I can see the conversation has moved on but can anyone confirm when the EU and UK signed contracts with AZ?

When the EU first became aware, in January, they might not receive the number of doses they hoped for it was widely publicised that the UK had signed contracts 3 months before the EU but more recently it's been reported that the contracts were signed a day apart. Which is correct?

I don't think it makes a difference to the current situation but I'm interested for the sake of accuracy.

@MrsHuntGeneNotJeremyObviously - I think that's an inevitable shift. On page 9 of this thread I posted a quote from the CFO of Valneva saying they anticipated that the UK government would expect them to move bottling from Sweden to the UK. I think we'll see manufacturing location becoming much more important at the contract stage across the board.

Going forward, if the UK gets more involved with Curevac we need to insist that there is a manufacturing facility here

it's already been sorted.

www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/uk_and_curevac_to_jointly_develop_vaccines_against_covid-19_variants_1362894?SQ_DESIGN_NAME=2&

As far I can work out(from this link but stuff I read a couple of days ago too) bayer will be the company dealing with anything EU related.

@QuentinInQuarantino

Also curious, "read my post, I didn't actually wish that"

Or maybe you're just a certain age

You can get as angry about it as you like. It won't change anything. You misinterpreted what was written and have gone on to tell the writer that she is backtracking, presumably you mean lying, and now you are venting that anger at me!

Despite not being the author of the post I am sorry it angered you so much. But really, it is misplaced.

My understanding is that the U.K. was working with AZ back in May/ June to set up supply chains / manufacturing etc to serve primarily the U.K. market ( obviously). U.K. government also backed Oxford uni setting up the trials etc , all with no expectation that it would even work. The actual date of the contract to purchase doses is a red herring imo. The EU could also have worked with AZ productively to do exactly the same in the EU if they had acted back in June and they would be less likely to be having these supply issues now.
That’s at the heart of the problem I think. In addition to sanofi failing ( if sanofi had succeeded, they would be happily supplying the EU now and the pressure on AZ would be significantly reduced. )

@FOJN

I can see the conversation has moved on but can anyone confirm when the EU and UK signed contracts with AZ?

When the EU first became aware, in January, they might not receive the number of doses they hoped for it was widely publicised that the UK had signed contracts 3 months before the EU but more recently it's been reported that the contracts were signed a day apart. Which is correct?

I don't think it makes a difference to the current situation but I'm interested for the sake of accuracy.

18 MAY 2020 The Government has announced £65.5 million of new funding for the vaccine being developed at the University of Oxford as coronavirus vaccine trials accelerate. www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-05-18-funding-and-manufacturing-boost-uk-vaccine-programme

14 August 2020
Today, the European Commission has reached a first agreement with the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca to purchase a potential vaccine against COVID-19 as well as to donate to lower and middle income countries or re-direct to other European countries.

ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_1438

This is one of the links from the last thread, it's a very good read.

if its behind a paywall again, just Google the title as it seem you can read it fine that way.

www.ft.com/content/662ab296-2aef-4179-907c-5dba5c355d86

@FourTeaFallOut

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-emmanuel-macron-says-the-eu-failed-to-shoot-for-the-stars-over-vaccine-rollouts-12256479

I think this is surprisingly honest. Tbf, even our MPs were laughing at Hancock for being so optimistic about vaccines as late as October. Thank fuck we had Bingham at the helm and she didn't sit around on her arse sipping cocktails over the summer.

There was an interview with Kate Bingham in the Times or Telegraph in which she said she judged the chances of a successful vaccine being developed in 2020 at 10 or 15 percent and tried to explain that to Boris Johnson, yet he stayed optimistic and basically threw money at her to try to make it happen. Obviously Macron doesn't give the UK gov/scientists/purchasing team any credit, but I'm sure most do - what a triumph of hope over expectation.

There was an interview with Kate Bingham in the Times or Telegraph in which she said she judged the chances of a successful vaccine being developed in 2020 at 10 or 15 percent and tried to explain that to Boris Johnson, yet he stayed optimistic and basically threw money at her to try to make it happen.
Obviously Macron doesn't give the UK gov/scientists/purchasing team any credit, but I'm sure most do - what a triumph of hope over expectation.

Incredible. People forget what breakthroughs these fast vaccines are. It could have been so much worse.

sashagabadon and EasterIssland

Thank you for the information. It does look like the contract dates are a red herring, the UK government had a significant head start working with AZ. The EU's behaviour is disappointing to say the least.

interview with Kate Bingham

www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/02/07/news/kate_bingham_interview_vaccines_covid_astrazeneca_uk_coronavirus_johnson-286384093/

I am so disappointed with how the EU is handling this. As a EU born British citizen I have always been a remainer but the way they are handling the vaccine situation is incredibly upsetting. I'm starting to be glad that we have brexited. Appalling behaviour from the EU.

I obviously don’t believe it is only luck that we backed the right vaccines rather than our people knowing their stuff, but I wonder if the fact that we seem to have been willing to throw money at them was also a factor. In other words, would Sanofi have had a greater chance of success if the EU had had a different attitude to funding it?

I don’t think the EU even discussed the millions of unused vaccines sitting in fridges in Europe? Not one word on how to encourage people to come forward or better systems to speed up the process?

NewYearNewTwatName

I thought the Kate Bingham interview was excellent. She says she doesn't understand politics whilst giving a masterclass in diplomacy! UVDL could learn a thing or two from KB.

@Baileysforchristmas

I don’t think the EU even discussed the millions of unused vaccines sitting in fridges in Europe? Not one word on how to encourage people to come forward or better systems to speed up the process?

No they didn't.

They also have never acknowledged the fact that the UK was the only country in a position take the initial millions of doses which had started to be produced back in August. The planning for the set up and roll out of vaccinations began in the UK in September. Another red herring is that supply has crippled it's vaccination programme, this is just untrue. They have only recently even thought about mass vaccination centres. They just weren't set up for volume vaccinations.

Telegraph:

"France’s foreign minister has said the EU will not be “blackmailed” by the UK on Covid vaccines.

Speaking after President Macron’s failed gambit to block exports of the vaccine, Jean-Yves Le Drian said Europe would not “pay the price” for the UK’s decision to prioritise the number of people getting a first dose “knowing there will be problems with the second one”.

"You can't be playing like this, a bit of blackmail, just because you hurried to get people vaccinated with a first shot, and now you're a bit handicapped because you don't have the second one," he told France Info radio.

"The UK is proud to have vaccinated many people with the first dose, but they will have a problem with the second dose,” he added. "We are fully vaccinated with two doses, not one. Today we have the same number of fully vaccinated people in France and the United Kingdom."

...Well, technically we have more fully vaccinated than France but this seems a minor point compared to this idea that we are reliant on the EU to complete the second doses...this isn't the case, is it?

Surely we still have the 10m Pfizer doses from the 20m Pfizer shipment and the capacity to dish out 2m home grown a/z vaccines/week - and that would meet the requirements to "fully vaccinate" all the first doses?

"The UK is proud to have vaccinated many people with the first dose, but they will have a problem with the second dose,” he added.

Maybe I'm paranoid, but this sounds a bit like a threat to me.

If I were in charge, the UK would stop all new first doses with Pfizer and complete the second doses for those instead. That would significantly reduce our reliance on the EU, given how few AZ doses we have received from there.

Such bad vibes from the French government!

@ChloeCrocodile

"The UK is proud to have vaccinated many people with the first dose, but they will have a problem with the second dose,” he added.

Maybe I'm paranoid, but this sounds a bit like a threat to me.

If I were in charge, the UK would stop all new first doses with Pfizer and complete the second doses for those instead. That would significantly reduce our reliance on the EU, given how few AZ doses we have received from there.

I find the way some speak really emotive and generally threatening

The German MEP with ‘suffer’

Reading that statement
The issue for the EU us their own production yet there’s a lot of emotive casting around esp towards the YK