Cases rising?

[Dodie66]

Are cases rising in your area?. Getting a bit despondent about the number of councils where cases are now rising and wondering why this is happening. See on this site www.covidmessenger.com/
The list of councils has if the cases are rising on the left

Possibly schools going back and twice weekly testing of secondary school pupils is just picking up more cases?

Cases in general are in decline and the r rate through the country is below 1. This is all that matters.

Cases were always going to become irrelevant once hospitalizations and deaths decline massively due to vaccinations...50k Cases a day would mean nothing if it was a minimal amount of serious Cases.

It's quite obvious that as restrictions lifted that Cases numbers will increase... it would be absolutely impossible for them not too.

Even lastbl year when cases numbers were tiny... they were likely much higher than was reported as were not testing anywhere near as much as we are now. I expect cases numbers to platue now and stick to between 4-6 k a day for the foreseeable. Just a hunch tho.

As long as hospitalizations and deaths are going down it doesnt really matter if more asymptomatic cases are being picked up in schools. Aren't numbers of tests at an all time high?

We're never going to get down to zero cases

Yes, they are in my area. They doubled this past 7 days. They were expecting them to when they schools went back (finally they're admitting it) let's hope that it flattens of soon as they also expected it too and that admissions & deaths don't change too much.

Nationally the numbers are still going down, though much much more slowly than before and still, obviously far too high.

Though I'm concerned that they'll lift restrictions on the dates they've given, no matter what the numbers say. So let's hope the numbers flatten of keep going down.

Going down still in my area. A quick glance at rising one's don't seem like bassinet rises. Still pretty positive given how many LFT are being conducted.

Bassinet wtf. Massive

They are rising in urban areas in the North and Midlands.

Places like Greater Manchester, West & South Yorkshire, the West Midlands It's been happening for a week or so now

They’re riding but positivity - cases as proportion of those tested- is declining which indicates that overall cases ar le still dropping

Rising

Numbers of cases are not the important metric any more. The whole point of restrictions and lockdowns was to protect the health service. Not to prevent illness. As long as the illness being experienced (if at all) does not lead to hospitalisations and therefore deaths it really doesn’t matter how many there are. The important metrics are demographics and hospital numbers. Just after Xmas there were over 30k people in hospital with Covid, now it’s near 5k

In a cycle of Rising slightly/plateauing/falling slightly for weeks in my area. I think rise last two weeks of a few % is likely due to increased testing picking up asymptomatic/ kid cases as there’s been no rise in hospital admissions or deaths, and trend for cases in all age groups except kids nationally is down.

This was always expected. Schools back and more testing equal rising cases. Easter is the school circuit breaker. It's the next term that I'm worried about!

@AllThatFancyPaintsAsFair

As long as hospitalizations and deaths are going down it doesnt really matter if more asymptomatic cases are being picked up in schools. Aren't numbers of tests at an all time high?

We're never going to get down to zero cases

This is utter sense but I am very worried that people seem to think we must prevent cases. If cases rise it is automatically a bad thing and we must go into lockdown again. Lots of people seem to think the aim is to prevent anyone getting the virus, ever. If so we may as well adapt our lives and accept this is it for the next five years.

Also the interesting measure is % of tests coming back positive.

Daily tests are at around 1.5 MILLION atm, which is far far higher than it has been to now, but % of positives is less than 1%.

This would back up the idea that were just detecting more cases, than cases are rising.

The R number has increased a little with schools returning, and this was anticipated.

It's part of the whole rationale of when we lift restrictions how we go about it. Wait between each change and see what happens to transmission. If it rises too far, then numbers could ince again rise alarmingly fast. Pausing relaxation before we have a problem would be a good idea (to the extent that it's better than the alternative, not that anyone actually likes the idea)

Cases are back up above 100 per 100,000 in my area BUT given the amount of testing happening now that's probably about the equivalent of actual cases as in the summer last year. I'm not worried.

If hospitalization and death rates start to go up dramatically then it could affect the road map, but for now this is exactly what was expected to happen

How can anyone look at this graph and think that there wouldn't be an increase in the number of cases detected

170 per 100k here and rising.

Falling in my area.

It's no surprise that they would start rising when schools went back. The government has acknowledged this previously. What matters is how many of those cases translate into hospitalizations.

There’s also been a shed load more testing as schools have gone back. Lateral flow tests are included. It’ll be picking up way more asymptomatic cases than previously..

I don’t think it’s too concerning. My area is 750 per 100,000. It’s been high here all year long. I can’t say I’m too bothered. So long as hospital admissions are down & deaths keep falling, cases are kinda irrelevant..

My area has been dropping steadily and we are now 36 per 100k.

The majority of neighbourhoods are now so low that one household can distort the figures.

Yesterday's data for 14th March showed my area was up a terrifying 100% in 7 days. Yes, soaring from 2 people to 4 people! I quake in fear. Today it's down to 3 so only a significant 33%.
Realistically it's plateaued at a low level and any fluctuation looks statistically significant and more and more places are showing this trend.

Many of the worst localised areas I've seen recently are an outbreak in an institution such as a prison or YOI, so not generally affecting the community.

This shows the 7 day case rate per 100,000 for each five year age band starting seven days to 1st Feb and ending with the latest info on the dashboard for 7 days to 15th March.

The final two columns shows the percentage change (noting tho BOGOF''s very pertinent point) for:

• the current position as compared to that 2 wks ag, and,

• the current position as compared to the figure 1 wk ago.

A negative percentage indicates that cases are falling.

I don’t get the lack of concern over case numbers.

It’s a relief that hospital admissions will be down, but Covid isn’t a die or have no symptoms thing.
A large minority have Long Covid, and some of them have it for months with organ damage to varying degrees.

We do need to keep case numbers low, especially in children, who are still growing. Why risk their future health if we’re able to reduce numbers close to zero like several other countries? That’s what we should be aiming at.