Cases rising?

[Dodie66]

Are cases rising in your area?. Getting a bit despondent about the number of councils where cases are now rising and wondering why this is happening. See on this site www.covidmessenger.com/
The list of councils has if the cases are rising on the left

Remember hospital admissions lag behind cases by around 2-3 weeks.

Schools are our Achilles heel.

Remember hospital admissions lag behind cases by around 2-3 weeks.

Even if it were this simple - which it isn't because we have significantly increased the scale of testing over the last three weeks - by your own account we should be down a further 7.5% in two/ three weeks time for hospitalisations and deaths (and then also ignorming the scale and effect of vaccinations)

@FourTeaFallOut

Remember hospital admissions lag behind cases by around 2-3 weeks.

Even if it were this simple - which it isn't because we have significantly increased the scale of testing over the last three weeks - by your own account we should be down a further 7.5% in two/ three weeks time for hospitalisations and deaths (and then also ignorming the scale and effect of vaccinations)

I see what you tried to do there, and you’re right they will show a decrease and not correlate to the infections. Let’s see the case numbers in another week or two and discuss then.

Let’s see the case numbers in another week or two and discuss then

Absolutely, let's do that. And then I can explain to you again about increased testing and vaccinations.

O.k. so over one week later and cases are down, week on week, by 4.2% and new hospital admissions are down 21.9%. Deaths are down by another 25.3%.

I follow the 7 day thing on the gov website - it was down yesterday but up for the previous 2 days. It was inevitable that cases went up when we went back to school. However, the caveat to that is we are testing more than ever and there hasn't been a significant increase at all so fingers crossed, it can be managed. Hospitalisations and deaths are way, way down week on week and I think that's probably what matters most.

Not sure yet - if the LF tests are included then we could simply be picking up more cases, rather than there being more cases.

But if the trend continues, then it's a big problem. Cases are currently low but as soon as R rises above 1 in an area, it's only a matter of time before they're huge. The risks despite vaccination are very real, although as yet unquantified - we don't have enough data on things like the SA variant yet.

I totally understand the rationale that case numbers rising is less of a marker now that the vaccine is rolling out, and that reducing hospitalisation due to severe disease and deaths is the current goal to lessen strain on the NHS.

In wider context though, the knock on effect of a positive test while people are mixing has other implications. One person tests positive and may have a higher number of contacts as we open up, who then have to isolate - which continues to disrupt education, work etc as current info appears to be keeping the ten day rule.

I just googled to see whether you can have a test if asymptomatic and a close contact of a positive case, and despite scrutinising the government page, am still not sure - it was last updated in February, so things could have changed, and it seems it might be different in Scotland?

www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-for-contacts-of-people-with-possible-or-confirmed-coronavirus-covid-19-infection-who-do-not-live-with-the-person/guidance-for-contacts-of-people-with-possible-or-confirmed-coronavirus-covid-19-infection-who-do-not-live-with-the-person

Quite prepared to accept I've utterly missed something vital, but as I say, the wider context of cases rising, but having more contacts, who still need to isolate for ten days still has wider implications I think?

Well absolutely cases will rise as we unlock from each stage. But the reopening of all schools was not the apocalyptic catalyst for hospitalisations and deaths that were predicted.

We are three weeks in to the return of schools now. Cases, hospitalisations and deaths are all still lower by some considerable margin than they were on March 8th.

@FourTeaFallOut

Well absolutely cases will rise as we unlock from each stage. But the reopening of all schools was not the apocalyptic catalyst for hospitalisations and deaths that were predicted.

We are three weeks in to the return of schools now. Cases, hospitalisations and deaths are all still lower by some considerable margin than they were on March 8th.

But the reopening of all schools was not the apocalyptic catalyst for hospitalisations and deaths that were predicted

Sigh - this is Brexit over again, trying to argue reason with fools who trot out strawmen at every opportunity.

NOBODY said reopening schools would be apocalyptic. The CONCERN was that it would take R above 1. Too soon to establish the full impact of reopening schools -they've only been back 3 weeks, but in some areas it already appears that R may have gone over 1.

You know, you are not half as smart as you are rude notrub.

When numbers are relatively low, it is less useful to look at case numbers in low tier local authorities. A workplace outbreak or transmissions within an extended family may lead to a significant relative increase in numbers.

Upper tier local authority or regional stats are more interesting.

In England the numbers seem to have plateaued with the school reopening. Increasing cases in schoolchildren are offset by decreasing cases in the older population (as a result of vaccinations).

Rising a bit in my area but I guess it's the school effect.
I want to travel this year and the country I want to go to , checks the cases number so I hope it stays below the threshold which should really as more people gets vaccinated in the young population

We've gone from testing 600-750,000 people per day in lockdown to testing between 1.2 - 2 million people with the schools going back to testing twice per week and the government wanting employers to test too.

The tests are unreliable and so are the supposed rise in cases. Ideal if you don't want lockdown to end too quickly though. It makes people freak out when really nothing has changed.

Cases in my area are up and down at the moment which is to be expected as numbers are so low.

@FourTeaFallOut

You know, you are not half as smart as you are rude notrub.

Agreed. Waiting for her response to my post. It is always a pleasure to be schooled on how stupid I am by @notrub on these boards.

Falling in my area but I did expect a rise, pretty obvious really. Kids are testing twice a week in secondary school so asymptotic cases that would otherwise have gone unnoticed will be being picked up. 5 positive cases in our school of 2000 and that was on 11th March, none since.

@Nextyearwillbefun

This was always expected. Schools back and more testing equal rising cases. Easter is the school circuit breaker. It's the next term that I'm worried about!

Only if everyone abides by the rules and there is still SD outdoors if meeting up. I don’t think it will be a circuit breaker at all as many don’t bother with the laws now judging from what I’ve seen and read.

Shockingly my town is declining.

Good to see cases are down, week on week, by 16.7%.

Where I live and where my parents live are both rising but from low numbers and not yet considered "hotspots"

And this map is looking pinker than it was a few weeks ago.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/01/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

Yes, my msoa went up 12.5% today, that's one additional person compared to last week.

The lower the numbers get the more noise there is.

Still banging the doom drum nut nuts 😆

@Cloudyrainsham

Falling in my area but I did expect a rise, pretty obvious really. Kids are testing twice a week in secondary school so asymptotic cases that would otherwise have gone unnoticed will be being picked up. 5 positive cases in our school of 2000 and that was on 11th March, none since.

Very true. Better protection for the teachers too, with asymptomatic infections being picked up.

My area staying very low thankfully.

Three areas in Wales have had rises they have traced back to indoor mixing.
Merthyr, Newport (Mothers day party) and now Swansea. No idea about other areas. It only takes one person to asymptotically spread it for it to grow exponentially sadly.