If we would have heard that 125,000 people would have died in the U.K. of C19, in March 2020, where would our minds be?

[EddyF]

Not sure if my title makes sense as I can’t see it all on my phone. But I was just wondering how hearing the U.K. has lost 125,000 people since the pandemic started and it hardly stirs any emotion in me. The early days in 2020, even the news of 200 people had died used to flood me. I just feel sad that these figures don’t have the same impact on me.

I don’t watch TV much and today I am watching Sky and just heard the current figure.

Does anyone else feel the same? I hate that I am so desensitised.

Such a waste of life and a waste of a year.
If only we had gone down the zero covid path right from the very start.
We could have had a year of normal life (just without foreign travel, which isn't going to be possible for months anyway).
Normal school, normal sport, normal socialising.
Minimal lockdowns lasting days not months.

If only...

Maybe we would have taken proper action against a man who didn't think Covid was as important as

"the ancient, inalienable right of free-born people of the United Kingdom to go the pub"

and who would "continue to shake hands"

and another cabinet member who had just accepted a large amount of money from a horse racing company

Yes, horrible, but try to look at it another way.

At the start of this, the experts estimated a mortality rate of 1% if we did nothing, and they were pretty accurate. That would have meant 670,000 deaths in the UK. And we didn't know about long covid then either.

So it's also 550,000 better than it might have been. Which I realise is no help at all for those who are grieving, but it is something positive.

I remember the first death announcement and felt that pretty keenly. Then as they crept up.

I remember thinking this will reach thousands daily there’s no point in being shocked to this extent each time.

Then the emotive reaction decreased over time.

[quote PrincessNutNuts]Remember when the plan was herd immunity?

And a massive death toll? But spread out "squash the sombrero"

www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants-uk-to-acquire-coronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston[/quote]
The only thing that is stopping this path is working vaccines.

As none of them were people I know, about as much as I feel now which is bugger all.

I can't get upset about strangers who I don't care about dying

@MarshaBradyo

The only thing that is stopping this path is working vaccines.

Not sure what you mean here?

If you mean that herd immunity via covid infection would have been the plan IF NOT for vaccines, let me stop you right there. In the history of the world, that has never happened with any virus. If you want to know why, read up on Manaus, Brazil.

When I first heard Vallance announce this as the UK strategy, that was when I knew he wasn't a credible scientist, no matter what qualifications he can claim and nobody in science will ever take him seriously again.

Notrub of course he is, don’t be silly. Are you in a scientific position at work btw? Heading up decisions etc

We haven’t always had vaccines so what has happened to earlier pandemics?

Also what wouod our strategy have been with no vaccine?

If we would have heard that 125,000 people would have died in the U.K. of C19, in March 2020, where would our minds be?

We knew how serious it was back then though, the Government and science repeatedly told us.

On the 10th of May 2020, Boris Johnson again told us in his statement to the country that without lockdown we would have had "half a million fatalities" by that time. It stands to reason that even with lockdown we knew back then that unfortunately many people would die.

It was known how serious the situation was even back then

Yes that’s true

I remember talking to my parents who were leaving for London and saying don’t

This was pre lockdown and when the 500k figure was in the media

In March

It don’t take long for us to go from Feb low to March expecting high

I remember talking to my parents who were leaving for London and saying don’t

Same. I can remember going for a family pub meal, with my elderly dad there, and looking around and thinking "we probably wont be able to do this again for a long long time". That was the 4th of March. It was one of those lunchtime meal deal type affairs and a lot of pensioners were there. I kept thinking, people are grabbing cutlery at the buffet counter, touching doors, toilets etc not caring. I said to my dad " this virus, it's really serious dad" and he said seriously "oh yes I know it is", and then went to the bar for another pint. He had the vaccine early on due to his age and now keeps saying "but when are the bloody pubs open again"?

My parents boarded a round the world cruise! Coming from
Aus. The last text with tracking info was March 8th. About four or five days after they had the choice to disembark. Then after another 24 hours they all were asked to disembark and go home.

I remember saying London would likely be shut, hospitals would be full and flights would be hard to get. It six weeks to get here so pretty correct! It was so fast moving back then.

I was expecting more deaths even with lockdowns. So I am relieved at the moment. Hopefully the deaths will only be in single figures soon and stay like that.

If you mean that herd immunity via covid infection would have been the plan IF NOT for vaccines, let me stop you right there. In the history of the world, that has never happened with any virus. If you want to know why, read up on Manaus, Brazil.

This is absolutely right.

And Manaus shows that it's not going to happen with coronavirus specifically, so it's not even that we don't have the data for this specific virus. We do.

In fact pursuing a herd immunity strategy by stealth (as some have claimed the way schools was opened was) has given us new, nastier variants. The more infections you have, the more chance of nastier variants and the more chance they have of taking over. Countries pursing a zero covid approach from the start have done better in terms of lack of lockdowns, the economy and in terms of normal life. Look at Australia. Look at S Korea.

This last lockdown has really driven infections down, we do have a chance to pursue a better, less damaging approach, but I'll be surprised if it happens.

If there was no vaccine some posters seem to be suggesting zero Covid from this standpoint?

For how long? Or would it rely on every country doing the same / or only travelling between those that do

Intrigued to see how you picture it. As the Spanish flu pandemic did pass without vaccine or zero flu

@MarshaBradyo

Notrub of course he is, don’t be silly. Are you in a scientific position at work btw? Heading up decisions etc

We haven’t always had vaccines so what has happened to earlier pandemics?

Also what wouod our strategy have been with no vaccine?

We haven’t always had vaccines so what has happened to earlier pandemics?

They didn't stop lol - although once a disease has become endemic, it's no longer called an epidemic!

e.g. The TB american epidemic took over a century to wipe out 95% of the population - only stopped by vaccines.

Measles, Polio, Chicken Pox - all stopped after centuries of circulation, by vaccines.

They didn't stop lol - although once a disease has become endemic, it's no longer called an epidemic!

Well exactly. Of course that’s the point. And there’s no longer any need to put measures in place.

Honestly you talk as if we’d be buffeted by CV19 pandemic in the same way forever.

We wouldn’t. The virus would exist but we’d move past the crisis same as we did the Spanish flu pandemic.

How long did the Spanish flu pandemic last Notrub?

The actual pandemic - two years I’ve seen quoted on here

I think people know a bit and call many stupid, including the CMO and CSA but it doesn’t show them in the light they think it does.

It makes me wonder what kind of job they have and what SM they follow. At least try to think about things and why scientific experts say what they do.

@MarshaBradyo

If there was no vaccine some posters seem to be suggesting zero Covid from this standpoint?

For how long? Or would it rely on every country doing the same / or only travelling between those that do

Intrigued to see how you picture it. As the Spanish flu pandemic did pass without vaccine or zero flu

You mean like China has been successfully doing for over 12 months now?

Re: The Spanish flu

1. It wasn't a new disease - it was two mutations of an existing virus, ONE of which was a highly unusual killer.
2. It killed a heck of a lot of people before it was done.
3. It went away because it mutated into a milder form - NOT because any kind of "herd-immunity" was created.

Yes we could kind of sit around in chapels and pray that covid miraculously mutates into something totally innocuous - personally I prefer NOT to rely on luck or divine intervention, but each to their own eh?

@MarshaBradyo

They didn't stop lol - although once a disease has become endemic, it's no longer called an epidemic!

Well exactly. Of course that’s the point. And there’s no longer any need to put measures in place.

Honestly you talk as if we’d be buffeted by CV19 pandemic in the same way forever.

We wouldn’t. The virus would exist but we’d move past the crisis same as we did the Spanish flu pandemic.

And there’s no longer any need to put measures in place.

Well it depends on whether you are happy to accept a new world in which life expectancy is about 10 years less, and a large chunk of the working population are incapacitated for months/years/permanently due to long covid. Along with a healthcare system unable to really do anything except treat covid patients...

I think we've forgotten how short life expectancy was in the past and how normal it was for people to die or be irreversibly damaged by disease all the time. (TB, Polio, Measles etc etc)

Personally, I'm not that keen to go back to that, but I guess other people don't seem to care.

My Mum's family lost a parent and a primary aged child to TB, and other family members were ill with it for many many years. It was pretty shit, for a long time - their lives revolved around treatment, a LOT more school was missed by the kids that had TB than has been via covid. Our generation has been lucky to be able to avoid that kind of horrendously life limiting illness by and large (mainly as a result of vaccination).

Of course it’s worse than having a vaccine. In fact I think many underestimate how bad it would have been without it when talking about rollouts etc

But you haven’t answered the how long question. Given that a virus doesn’t disappear, as you’ve recognised, how long would you keep borders closed?

Personally, I'm not that keen to go back to that, but I guess other people don't seem to care.

These sort of comments are so silly. But anyway same to you, how long would you keep borders closed?

I really don't think having a quarantine on entry really is that much of a problem. Australia doesn't have closed borders - I know people that have travelled there recently. Yes, you have to quarantine for two weeks in a hotel and have covid tests.

They're able to have a pretty normal life. Quarantining arrivals seems a small price to pay.