Do you think vaccine supply issues will be used to delay lockdown easing?

[dellarossa]

Interested in thoughts on this...

Not if rates continue to drop like they are doing.

And more importantly pressure on hospital continues to decrease.

Maybe. I think we’ll have to accept mass job losses then, though, we can’t afford to extend furlough again... so it’d undo all the work that the government has tried to do.

With all the emphasis on everyone having their first jab by July, I was wondering if they’d not give the second jab to everyone. Perhaps just the most at risk people? We should have data on how much protection one dose gives, by then.

But it’s all guessing, and you’ll get a mix of genuinely curious people and conspiracy theorists in both directions who will use this to further their current position.

I hope not

Possibly.
Plus schools round here are already seeing the inevitable positive cases coming through. Many parents and teachers are in their 40s.

No they are still hitting the target of groups 1-9 by mid April. These groups represent the majority of deaths and hospitalisations so there will be no impact on the roadmap. The issue impacts under 50s and is only delaying them by a month.

I think now that most of CEV, elderly and frontline workers have been vaccinated, it's unlikely the NHS would get overwhelmed. So I think it's unlikely people would accept a delay to lockdown easing. But I could be wrong.

You seem to be implying that the government wants to keep us in lockdown, which makes no sense whatsoever.

Wouldn’t have thought so. All over 50s and vulnerable groups will still have been offered their jab by mid-April, which groups account for 99% of deaths (Fergus Walsh, BBC this morning).

Might mean SD and masks for longer.

No

No. The govt has bet everything on vaccinations. We can't afford another lockdown and we need the economy back on track to start paying off the debt as soon as possible.

This is my big concern. Vaccine delays = vocal people who thought the pace of reopening was too quick use this as a drum to whip up fear = public opinion turns against reopening = government drag it out even longer.

I think the easing of restrictions will continue to the timetable, speaking personally though, although perhaps it's just a reaction today to the delayed disappointment of vaccine rollout I might feel differently next week, I was assuming we would have had our first vaccination as things opened up indoors.

So what to do? We would rather keep schools open and for us not to get ill so I feel we will just have to continue to be careful and not have unnecessary contacts for a little longer, still a little disappointed as I said.

On the bright side we save cash this way.

I cant see how we can go back to normal on 22 June ish when many won't have even had their first vaccination?

@Ugzbugz

I cant see how we can go back to normal on 22 June ish when many won't have even had their first vaccination?

Because the people who are more likely to be very ill, die, be in hospital will have had their vaccines. For other, younger, healthy people it will mainly be like a heavy cold.

@Ugzbugz why do you think that? For the huge majority of people under 40 covid is a minuscule risk, the uptake of vaccines in under 30s will be quite low I think, they understand the risk to them is minimal it’s certainly not a reason to avoid opening up and letting healthy younger people get on with their lives. We had no vaccinations last summer and were opened up to around the level they are propping for May! I don’t understand why people think like you.

No! Nothing must delay lockdown easing, it's been long enough and people's mental health would not cope. No, we will go back to normal in June as Boris has said, we can't be expected to sacrifice any more.

Not for the April 12 changes I think. Not sure about the later ones. The vaccine rollout is ahead of the target as it stands now.

No I don't think so
We are ahead of where we originally thought we would be anyway. Before my DS consultant told me that DP and I were Group 6, as a 39 year old I looked on the Omnicounter and it predicted me getting my vaccine beginning of July when I looked in January, and DP (51) was May. Instead all over 50s are being done now.
I think the uptake has been far bigger than predicted too which is a blessing and curse.

But overall, the most important categories have been vaccinated where the person has agreed to have it. Deaths are down 80% in a month, 8 out of 10 will no longer end up in hospital and you are 85% less likely to be very ill. It's also seen to be over 30% less likely you can pass the virus on after the 1st vaccine.

We have flu and other illnesses which can, if caught by the wrong person, kill. But we don't lockdown and stop everything, we vaccinate them.
Whilst the NHS is dealing with every day stuff and having smaller numbers of Covid cases, and less people are dying, I think we will be fine to get on with the easing in the slow steady pace we have.

No. I don't think it will. The unshackling of the case: hospitalisations:deaths ratio on the immunisation of groups 1-9 alone will see us meet the unlocking plan.

More cases might result on account of the healthy under 50s having to wait a further six weeks and there may be a little more disruption that follows as a result but hopefully, the seasonality of the virus and our move into warmer weather might mitigate the impact.

No, because we are ahead of schedule.

This "delay" is actually just going to bring us back to the target set so no reason for anything to change.

@Katie517

I don't care what happens to be honest, I go to work, my son goes to school im not hiding away but everything based on the R rate being kept low and of the vaccine is effective etc.

So with many unvaccinated people, irrelevant if they end up in hospital or dead the R rate could potentially be high. Its already rising in some counties. That's all I'm saying. I will still be going to work, kids will probably remain in school and I if its safe for the youngsters then let's crack and go back to normal ASAP, vaccine or no vaccine?

I think it will delay opening up, yes.

The implication in your post is that you think the government are looking for reasons to continue lockdown? That's definitely not the case, they want people spending money, back at work etc as soon as possible.

There's no reason to think delays are going to effect the early stages of the roadmap (as that wasn't based on >50s being vaccinated) but potentially depending on numbers it might impact all restrictions being eased in June.

But the opening up schedule was made based on the assumption of a vaccine schedule that will still be met? Why would it be delayed?