Do you think vaccine supply issues will be used to delay lockdown easing?

[dellarossa]

Interested in thoughts on this...

[quote Katie517]@Ugzbugz why do you think that? For the huge majority of people under 40 covid is a minuscule risk, the uptake of vaccines in under 30s will be quite low I think, they understand the risk to them is minimal it’s certainly not a reason to avoid opening up and letting healthy younger people get on with their lives. We had no vaccinations last summer and were opened up to around the level they are propping for May! I don’t understand why people think like you.[/quote]
It depends on case numbers.

If they soar in the summer with all restrictions eased it doesn't matter that for the individual the risk is very low. At such high levels of transmission you get significant numbers of hospital admission, long-term complications and deaths, alongside the emergence of new strains.

No, but I don't think things would have been back to normal by mid June anyway. The vaccine shortage is temporary.

They're provisional dates. I think April and May will go ahead as planned. June will depend on relatively low rates of infection/variants.

@Reallybadidea

You seem to be implying that the government wants to keep us in lockdown, which makes no sense whatsoever.

Exactly. That's what the title seems to imply. I agree that it doesn't impact on the priority groups.

No.

The government doesn't want to delay the road map, why would it?

Opening up was based on infection rates causing hospitalisation, not numbers vaccinated. And those nymbers are still dropping.

The major complaint about the road map was the dates marked "No earlier than..." Last night's journalistic input included "Why won't you open up sooner" as a follow up question to "How much will this delay the vaccination programme?"

The answers were: the road map has dates, no earlier than... and the programme is not being delayed and a wide eyed "WTF?" moment from Hancock and JVT!

Think it through. What s it you actually believe is happening?

I don't know. maybe they will delay some measures, such as meeting inside in homes or extending social distancing and mask wearing inside, or reducing the number of families that can meet outside, but hopefully the meeting outside in some form and shops and business openings will happen.

I think it will delay foreign travel and that suits the Government because they need us to spend our money here this summer.

The data from Israel is encouraging though. Lockdown has been significantly eased there, mobility data shows not much different to normal, and cases, hospitalisations and deaths are still plummeting.

@JosephineDeBeauharnais

I think it will delay foreign travel and that suits the Government because they need us to spend our money here this summer.

It should at least delay foreign travel i feel. Or we could have another wave and new varients.

@Reallybadidea

You seem to be implying that the government wants to keep us in lockdown, which makes no sense whatsoever.

You’re right, I should have phrased the title differently.

To clarify, I don’t think that the government want to keep us in lockdown, but I do think that they’re now so apprehensive about things going wrong again that they could be overly risk-averse and hesitate for longer than initially set out.

@dellarossa Stop scaremongering.

Unlikely. But I wasn't planning to get "out there" even when jabbed so it won't affect me. I just want my jab as the dc's are at school.

To clarify, I don’t think that the government want to keep us in lockdown, but I do think that they’re now so apprehensive about things going wrong again that they could be overly risk-averse and hesitate for longer than initially set out.

What have you seen and heard that makes you think that?

For example, a journalist piece? A government statement?

I don't think Johnson does "apprehensive". He only does bull in a china shop.

I think it’ll depend on what the case numbers are like.

It may delay things if vaccine supply issues lead to cases rising too far, and hospital admissions rising too high.
But most of the top 9 priority groups should have been offered a first dose of the vaccine by the governments deadline.

I hope to God not unless hospitalisations and deaths rise significantly, which logically they shouldn’t as all vulnerable and elderly people will still have been vaccinated, but I’m terrified the media will whip up a frenzy of how we’re behind the vaccination plan and we’re all going to die and the government will backtrack and change the goalposts and keep us all restricted for longer. I’m so fed up of these restrictions when the risk is so low.

@CuriousaboutSamphire

To clarify, I don’t think that the government want to keep us in lockdown, but I do think that they’re now so apprehensive about things going wrong again that they could be overly risk-averse and hesitate for longer than initially set out.

What have you seen and heard that makes you think that?

For example, a journalist piece? A government statement?

Nothing specific I suppose, more just my personal reading of the situation. Most newspapers today are carrying headlines about how the shortage will 'paralyse' our rollout (Telegraph) etc. and I can't help but feel as though this shift in narrative - if it continues - could dent public confidence in what has been a brilliant vaccination programme so far and that the government might react to that by slowing down easing so as not to be seen to be reckless.

No. Lockdown ending will be delayed if hospitalisations increase which will happen if large numbers of people act irresponsibly. A slight delay in vaccinating younger age groups shouldn't effect it.

I don't think you need to worry about the telegraph pushing for a delay in the roll out. I'd put good money on that.

No one can say, there's nothing I can do to change anything, it makes my life so much less stressful to just wait and see.

Surely if we've learned anything it must be that there's no purpose to endless speculation about something that we have no control over.

@FourTeaFallOut haha that's true! That was just an example but probably not a good one to use in this context

I do think this lack of autonomy in our lives does lead to feelings of helplessness and suspicion that we are being unfairly treated or concerns that worse is to come but if you only trust one thing, trust greed. Nobody in government wants this to continue longer than it needs to.

No I don't think so. We were racing ahead of schedule and the new delays just puts us back on target.

No, absolutely not. No reason for it to.

We are still well on course for the next stage of the road map. That's the important thing at the moment and the government needs to assess and review responsibly. All the following stages are "no earlier than" and there isn't a definite promise of "back to normal by" whatever some people want to think they've heard.