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Original poster

Outbreaks in schools

519 replies

Trustisamust · 18/03/2021 04:15

Since schools have returned there have already been major outbreaks in both my child's secondary and the primary I work at.
The majority of school staff remain unvaccinated.
For how many other schools is this already the case?
I just don't know what to think any more.

OP posts:
BungleandGeorge · 19/03/2021 19:19

To clarify that’s an example and not based in any fact from the BMJ article!

sherrystrull · 19/03/2021 19:32

@claire2273

But surely the spread would have started regardless if they were a symptomatic? Teachers are statistically no more likely to catch COVID than any other unvaccinated key worker-ONS produced a study on it.
So? All key workers working with many other people should have the vaccine to slow transmission.
Chilledchablis · 19/03/2021 19:35

I can't claim to be any sort of expert but local news in Scotland is saying that our infection rates are on the rise again since schools have been back. They started sooner than the rest of the UK as far as I know, but feel free to correct me if that isn't the case.

TheOneWithTheBigNose · 19/03/2021 19:36

Of course we also need to remember that case numbers are no longer the most important metric. Now vast numbers of the population have been vaccinated, hospitalisation data is more relevant.

notrub · 19/03/2021 19:37

@BungleandGeorge

It’s a shame that they didn’t categorise further those at risk. This could be significant eg. Overall a small increase but all of the increase was seen in the CEV groups
It's irrelevant for two reasons

  1. The research is poor quality as far as schools go - as the authors state, there are MANY reasons to explain the findings other than school transmissions.

  2. What matters is the impact on R, because although a school outbreak may not directly affect any vulnerable people, if it raises the level of community transmissions, that will eventually lead to more vulnerable people being infected.

Pretty much all the world's scientists now agree on schools - IF social distancing measures are implemented properly in schools they are low risk places. Where measures are weak, schools are quite high risk. We'll know in the next few weeks how good a job we've done in the UK.

helpfulperson · 19/03/2021 19:38

It's hard to know. Because of the vast number of testing now happening the only real measures are the death rate and the percentage of tests positive both of which are stable.

MarshaBradyo · 19/03/2021 19:39

@TheOneWithTheBigNose

Of course we also need to remember that case numbers are no longer the most important metric. Now vast numbers of the population have been vaccinated, hospitalisation data is more relevant.
Yes this is correct

We are running against vaccinations all the time

They go up and we move away from cases being the metric

What are hospitalisations doing this week? I think they are decreasing well

Pigriver · 19/03/2021 19:41

We had 2 kids test positive just before school reopened (in key worker groups) they passed it to 3 staff and closed 2 bubbles meaning we were short staffed to reopen. 2 other staff members and their children also tested positive that weekend. First day back 2 siblings came in and then stayed off and tested positive but infected another staff member and closed 2 further bubbles. By the end of the first week we had 4 bubbles closed and 18 staff either infected or isolating.

Prior to this we had the odd case here and there but nothing on this scale.

reformedcharacters · 19/03/2021 19:44

Latest data on hospitals admissions:

Outbreaks in schools
Bookworm65 · 19/03/2021 19:45

Primary school so no tests but already two classes isolating. Both with unvaccinated teachers and TAs.

WaverleyPirate · 19/03/2021 19:47

I'm worried that cases are being seeded from schools which as we know from the past rise exponentially once they reach a certain point.

The trouble with this virus is that by the time you know for sure it's too late. The only thing you can do is learn from the past.

rushmess · 19/03/2021 19:53

No cases in our secondary!

BungleandGeorge · 19/03/2021 19:53

@notrub actually ‘R’number isn’t that good a measure for covid because it is an average and masks outbreaks, the spread is disproportionately from superspreaders, some people and environments are disproportionately affected. And of course with so many LFTs being done and many people vaccinated it will go up without any corresponding effect on symptomatic infections. We are no longer dealing with an R number of 3 without mitigation’s because of the very high number of people with natural or acquired immunity and the effect on transmission of the vaccine. We need to concentrate more on hospital admissions and deaths

MarshaBradyo · 19/03/2021 19:54

@WaverleyPirate

I'm worried that cases are being seeded from schools which as we know from the past rise exponentially once they reach a certain point.

The trouble with this virus is that by the time you know for sure it's too late. The only thing you can do is learn from the past.

Except we have the vaccine now. So it’s not exactly mapping what we had previously
WaverleyPirate · 19/03/2021 20:02

Again in the news scientists are warning that the vaccine alone won't necessarily stop another wave.

Flotsamflo · 19/03/2021 20:03

Not in the school I work in. All years have been tested 3 times in school - all staff testing twice a week and not one positive case!

Waxonwaxoff0 · 19/03/2021 20:04

@WaverleyPirate

Again in the news scientists are warning that the vaccine alone won't necessarily stop another wave.
It should make it more manageable though. The whole point of the lockdown was to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, not to stop everyone catching Covid.
TheOneWithTheBigNose · 19/03/2021 20:06

@WaverleyPirate

Again in the news scientists are warning that the vaccine alone won't necessarily stop another wave.
They won’t stop a new wave of cases. They will likely prevent the number of hospitalisation and deaths that threatened to overwhelm the NHS though.
MarshaBradyo · 19/03/2021 20:08

@WaverleyPirate

Again in the news scientists are warning that the vaccine alone won't necessarily stop another wave.
What numbers are you talking about when you say wave?

As the metric to look at is ICU capacity

WaverleyPirate · 19/03/2021 20:15

There seems to be a distinct worry in the news today about the combination of our R rate rising, the third wave in Europe and new variants in France heading our way. I hope it doesn't happen.

MarshaBradyo · 19/03/2021 20:18

@WaverleyPirate

There seems to be a distinct worry in the news today about the combination of our R rate rising, the third wave in Europe and new variants in France heading our way. I hope it doesn't happen.
Do you mean a different nee French variant?

I only found this Forbes
After Italy went back into lockdown on 15 March, it was perhaps only a matter of time until France saw its own wave arrive, predominantly due to the rise in cases of the B.1.1.7 variant of Covid-19, commonly known in France as the variant Anglais. These cases now make up over 60% of new French cases and incidentally is right on time–French doctors and epidemiologists were expecting the peak of the wave from this so-called U.K. variant to arrive by mid March.

MarshaBradyo · 19/03/2021 20:18

Nee - new

BungleandGeorge · 19/03/2021 20:20

If you look at the messaging it’s been made reasonably clear that there is likely to be a further wave.

WaverleyPirate · 19/03/2021 20:21

Yes that's right.

MarshaBradyo · 19/03/2021 20:22

@BungleandGeorge

If you look at the messaging it’s been made reasonably clear that there is likely to be a further wave.
Can you expand on this?

What numbers do you mean and what restrictions