Third wave in Europe Italy going into lockdown

[Mintypylonsfryingsurplus]

Saw today ( dont watch news much now) that some countries in Europe e.g Italy are headed for third wave or going into lockdown. Will we follow as we are usually behind these places by a few weeks. Also Brazil recording highest ever deaths?

The UK is far ahead in the vaccination program so not exactly.

We run a risk of a third wave later in the year depending on how many get vaccinated, what mutations arise and how effective the current vaccines are against them.

If the UK gets 90% of adults and no new mutation arises, then we won't have a third wave.

We’re in a much better position because of our vaccine roll out. We’ve still got to be careful though.

From what I’ve read on here there hasn’t been large numbers of positive cases in schools so far, although I realise it’s early days. We’ll have to see what the next few weeks brings and go from there.

So the reason why Italy etc are having a 3rd wave is their slow vaccination programme?

Germany having issues too. It is concerning seeing as most people under 50 in UK are not vaccinated, schools have gone back and people have grown tired if the rules.

Oh and the fact we have had a lockdown of sorts already?

I think we are definitely in a delicate position. Fingers crossed we can hold it off until winter.

@SonnetForSpring yes I am concerned very sharp rise in cases in many EU. News here probably not wanting to say too much as we coming out of lockdown ourselves. Kept it very low key. More concerned with Oprah interview...

Im nervous about this. After being so hopeful about the vaccine. I know under 40s arent vaccinated but theyre v unlikely to be ill. 99% of deaths in the priority va cination groups etc. Mutation which vaccines don't cover worries me though.

It's annoying so many people seem against lateral flow testing too. That will not help.

Yes its a concern especially as reports from Brazil variant (in Brazil) affecting younger people too.

Surely they are behind us - we had found the UK variant and it hit us hard. We went into lockdown and are coming out alongside a robust vaccine programme.

They havent spent the first part of 2021 under restrictions

Why should we follow them?

@BugsAndBeesAndBirdsAndButterfl

Im nervous about this. After being so hopeful about the vaccine. I know under 40s arent vaccinated but theyre v unlikely to be ill. 99% of deaths in the priority va cination groups etc. Mutation which vaccines don't cover worries me though.

Yes it's the mutation element and the possibility of people being exposed to higher viral loads which can cause more severe illness.

Because we have in past
Not sure what restrictions etc happened in EU over winter as stopped watching news as much as giving me anxiety. I just hope closing our borders finally will stop it coming back here once our numbers get lower.

What may happen here as we come out of lockdown is a rise in cases (hopefully moderated by the vaccine) but hopefully a much lower death rate than previously.

@Quartz2208

Surely they are behind us - we had found the UK variant and it hit us hard. We went into lockdown and are coming out alongside a robust vaccine programme.

They havent spent the first part of 2021 under restrictions

Why should we follow them?

I don't think they are behind us. They are ahead of us. We have had 2 waves. They are approaching 3rd.

I hope so. I really do. Another lockdown would be just awful. Hopefully easter will act as a firebreak as schools stop again

Not sure this is to do with the vaccine programme - for example vaccination in Spain is slow but cases are low (around 5,000 a day) and have been for weeks, and are still going down. Cases in Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands are low, too, and they were never high in Germany to begin with. They are going up in France, Italy, Poland and Czech Republic.

It really isn't a homogenous picture in the EU but I guess that doesn't make easy headlines for lazy journalists.

@Mintypylonsfryingsurplus

I hope so. I really do. Another lockdown would be just awful. Hopefully easter will act as a firebreak as schools stop again

I think that is the plan. Then we will also have a better idea of transmissibility.

@Mintypylonsfryingsurplus

Because we have in past Not sure what restrictions etc happened in EU over winter as stopped watching news as much as giving me anxiety. I just hope closing our borders finally will stop it coming back here once our numbers get lower.

I was talking to a French colleague - they have a 6pm curfew and only allowed out for an hours exercise within 1km of their house.... result everyone travelling and trying to shop for food at the same time and more bunched together in urban areas. And their schools didn't shut. Way behind on vaccinations .... she sounded quite despairing of French politicians.

I'm in Belgium and we were doing well with a near lockdown and no mixing over Xmas. Numbers have plateaued now though and are starting to go up again, and the only thing that changed is they opened the hairdressers. The British variant accounts for over 50% of cases and I think is root cause of increase,

In Ireland we are on our 3rd lockdown to continue till at least may. Cases are ok not rising or reduced. Schools open with limited access are showing an increase
Its far from over with limited vaccines. Uk is much better. Worrying times

@MythicalBiologicalFennel

Not sure this is to do with the vaccine programme - for example vaccination in Spain is slow but cases are low (around 5,000 a day) and have been for weeks, and are still going down. Cases in Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands are low, too, and they were never high in Germany to begin with. They are going up in France, Italy, Poland and Czech Republic.

It really isn't a homogenous picture in the EU but I guess that doesn't make easy headlines for lazy journalists.

I did read it was related to the types of variants in these counties but I'm not sure if that has been confirmed.

Sonnetforspring we had the same peak as they did in October/November we then quickly spiralled into the UK variant position and have been in lockdown.

I dont think we are mirroring them anymore and we certainly arent behind them.

It just seems never ending even with vaccines. As people travel abroad again and so it comes around. Only to start vaccinating everyone again in time for Autumn against new variants...

The school testing programme is raising case numbers in secondary school age children, but that’s unsurprising as 80-90% are being tested instead of just those with symptoms.