Third wave in Europe Italy going into lockdown

[Mintypylonsfryingsurplus]

Saw today ( dont watch news much now) that some countries in Europe e.g Italy are headed for third wave or going into lockdown. Will we follow as we are usually behind these places by a few weeks. Also Brazil recording highest ever deaths?

@secretllama

I don't think they are behind us. They are ahead of us. We have had 2 waves. They are approaching 3rd.

The "waves" are all artificial based on the restrictions and easing each country has done, not the natural spread of the virus through a population. This is why all the talk of waves during this pandemic has annoyed the hell out of me. We are making these "waves".

In the UK there have been different variants pushing each wave. Suppression brings cases down, plus different restrictions each time on exit to ensure we keep cases lower. Transmission rates have been different with each variant, which is why the restrictions had to increase over time. It isn't as simple a picture as you appear to think.

@quidditchqueen That's certainly not the case where I am (northern Italy). I am in a badly hit area and we are already 2 weeks into lockdown. I don't know anybody who is visiting other households but, before this latest restriction it was allowed in a limited fashion anyway.

It's not as strict as last year though as we can go out for exercise. I really hope that won't be taken away.

I get the feeling we are behind the UK at the moment as our schools have only just closed and yours are opening up.

Apparently most of our cases in Italy atm are the UK variant. I have my vaccination next week hopefully!

Not sure how we can have another lockdown when we haven't come out of this one. Roll on vaccinations for the under 50s. I hope work is being done to eventually vaccinate children too.

@bluethrough most people have been doing what they want for weeks? What is the source for this as most people I know are still sticking to the rules

From looking at The Times this morning, government are still saying people shouldn't be planning to go abroad in August due to the slower pace of vaccine roll out but expecting all adults to have had at least first dose here by early June. I think that's a sensible approach. I realise that the impact of schools returning is yet to really hit home here but 5,500 cases yesterday from 1.6 million tests looks encouraging.

I hope rates do come down in Europe and that they are able to roll out their vaccines now they've got going. Hopefully the better weather will help, but I don't think we will necessarily follow if people are sensible.

A big 'if', I realise.....

Everyone I know are sticking to the rules as well, there may be some people who are not but you get that in life anyway. Something must be working as end of January there were just under 40,000 people in hospital with COVID, now there are 8,000. And we are getting 6,000 new cases daily with testing high at 1.6 million a day so no I don’t believe people are just doing what they want anyway

ZoBo123
Is there also any evidence that the "UK/Kent" variant actually started here or was first detected here? It may have come from Europe and we do a lot more genome testing and picked it up? If it started in any other county but the one that has frequent travel to mainland Europe

I don't know but similar to the Spanish flu you report on it first it gets named after you.

@Unmellowbirds

From looking at The Times this morning, government are still saying people shouldn't be planning to go abroad in August due to the slower pace of vaccine roll out but expecting all adults to have had at least first dose here by early June. I think that's a sensible approach. I realise that the impact of schools returning is yet to really hit home here but 5,500 cases yesterday from 1.6 million tests looks encouraging.

I hope rates do come down in Europe and that they are able to roll out their vaccines now they've got going. Hopefully the better weather will help, but I don't think we will necessarily follow if people are sensible.

A big 'if', I realise.....

I am personally very worried about international holidays. As so many tourists lasts summer brought back a Spanish varient. If everyone say went europe or America in summer. It might make schools and uk very bleak autum winter as kids won't be vaccinated until 2020 and they make up large part if population that have mass gatherings every day with poor ventilation and no masks or social distancing. Not sure all adults 18 or over would have had 2 jabs by summer. Theres % who can't or won't have it. Also new varients that may be more vaccine resistant.

@3asAbird Likewise. I'm quite pleased to see reports in the press discouraging overseas travel and highlighting things that we will hopefully be able to do here this year. I quite appreciate people wanting to go abroad, so did we (and have last year's holiday moved to this August which we will now move again), but I can wait if it means there's the option next year and we can enjoy other stuff this year.

I appreciate that it's different for those who need to travel overseas to see family but I do feel it's too early to holiday abroad, particularly based on what happened last year. Don't think I'll have had a second jab by then, pretty sure DC won't have, and last thing I want is then heading off to their three schools and spreading anything. Or indeed spreading anything from here abroad.

Think we need to focus on what we will be able to do rather than what we can't and hopefully we'll get to an end point (whatever that looks like) even sooner.

They can fuck off with any more talk of waves or further lockdowns. Enoughs enough.

@Hairwizard

They can fuck off with any more talk of waves or further lockdowns. Enoughs enough.

Don't really get this sort of comment. It's not like anyone has any choice of a third wave coming. If people spread the virus more and more there will be more mutations and a third wave. Telling the scientists etc to fuck off saying it's just a bit daft.

I am personally very worried about international holidays

Me too, I am hoping that travel remains essential only with 14 days supervised quarantine after in a hotel.

We don’t need any new variants traveling between countries for something non essential like a holiday.

Why are so many people so utterly determined to ignore our vaccine progress?

Vaccines which have been proven to limit transmission and work against these MUTANT VARIANTS?

Ditto Spring coming.

@QuidditchQueen

Friends in Italy (Italians, not expats) have been carrying on pretty much as usual in and out if family houses, going to second homes in the South for weekends etc. And vaccination programme woeful. Why the assumption we inevitably ‘follow’ them?

The vaccination programme may be woeful where your friends are, but here in my southern region it's going pretty well thankfully. All teachers now done, whatever their age, all police and armed forces. Estimates that by the end of April everyone in my region will have been done who needs to be. They've presumably been going to their second homes and visiting other people's houses because since Christmas that's been allowed in most regions. We're a bit pissed off truth be told that in my town for example, there are currently 138 active cases of Covid (65,000 inhabitants) but as of tomorrow we're in red zone again.

Shouldn’t have thrown their toys out the pram about vaccines should they. Thank god we have got on with it & are in much stronger position!

@HesterShaw1

Why are so many people so utterly determined to ignore our vaccine progress?

Vaccines which have been proven to limit transmission and work against these MUTANT VARIANTS?

Ditto Spring coming.

Was just about to post something similar.

@StepOutOfLine - Italy has given out 6.61m doses, with 7.7% of the population getting at least one dose, way under 5m people. There are 7.1m over 75s, before you start considering healthcare workers, teachers, police etc who you say are getting vaccines (why are they getting them before the most vulnerable people anyway?). It's good to be proud of your area doing well, but you need to be realistic - Italy has not yet vaccinated its vulnerable, and a lot of caution (including lockdown) will be needed until that happens.

[quote MRex]@StepOutOfLine - Italy has given out 6.61m doses, with 7.7% of the population getting at least one dose, way under 5m people. There are 7.1m over 75s, before you start considering healthcare workers, teachers, police etc who you say are getting vaccines (why are they getting them before the most vulnerable people anyway?). It's good to be proud of your area doing well, but you need to be realistic - Italy has not yet vaccinated its vulnerable, and a lot of caution (including lockdown) will be needed until that happens.[/quote]
Yes, I know.
Teachers have been given priority so we can get schools open again. Healthcare workers and law enforcement for obvious reasons. My in-laws are booked for next week. They're in a different town to me though. All over 70s were done in my town in January in the big sports centre which was then used for teachers.
There are complaints in some areas about the rollout taking too long, I think the thing is, such a lot has been devolved to the regions, and even further devolved to the provinces, which always opens up these vast differences.
I was responding really to the "got a friend in Italy who has been living life normally etc" poster who always seems to know better than those of us living here!
Btw, I shared the early CV threads with you this time last year under another user name. Hope you're well.

I have no science base to speak from. I have however followed various news outlets for the past year (except for a break last year when it got too much!!)
But we could predict exactly how it would play out here from watching europe up until the new uk variant then all bets were off and we were on our own trajectory. Israel is an interesting country to look at with regards to vaccine roll out and new variants affecting that.

I genuinely don’t think we will follow italy into a third wave now. We need to keep the travel ban in place until may/June until the majority of adults have had their first vaccine.
I think we will all need a booster with new variants come the autumn, and that will continue for years to come. With a combination of flu and covid vaccines annually.

There will sadly be more deaths due to covid and we will be living with it as we do flu. But I don’t think we will have a third wave imminently, if at all. if a third wave was to come it would be a separate variant at the end of summer / autumn. Which is why the global vaccine roll out and support is so important.

But as I have no science base. I’m talking rubbish really and may as well be using my crystal ball

@StepOutOfLine - interesting how different decisions are taken in different places, is that the priority in all of Italy, or does priority vary by region? I couldn't figure out where they could draw the line with food workers etc if it's done by exposure rather than by risk, will they switch to risk base soon then if your parents are up next? I'm interested to know what your username was now! All ok here (well, unwell family member but not covid), have my jab in 2 days so pleased about that.

@QuidditchQueen

Friends in Italy (Italians, not expats) have been carrying on pretty much as usual in and out if family houses, going to second homes in the South for weekends etc. And vaccination programme woeful. Why the assumption we inevitably ‘follow’ them?

There isn't the same pushback in Italy against the Covidiots.

@Mintypylonsfryingsurplus

Because we have in past Not sure what restrictions etc happened in EU over winter as stopped watching news as much as giving me anxiety. I just hope closing our borders finally will stop it coming back here once our numbers get lower.

I think the trend has changed. In eastern and central europe it is the kent variant thatis driving this 3rd wave. I have family in Hungary. They had a small second wave in January but no lockdowns, other than gyms being closed, and 8 pm curfew. Since september my nephew has been at school, it is only from this week thst they are doing home schoolingThe UK had months of lockdown and vaccinated almost half of the adult population.. In Hungary, they are ,and alwayshave been, allowed to go to each others houses. Schools and shops were open until monday. Now there is a lockdown. They have vaccinated less than 15% of the population. A lot of Eu countries have vaccinated less than 10%. I dont knkw much about Italy, but i do know their vaccination program is slow, and they had restaurants and cafes open. So for these reasons i dont think we will follow. UK numbers might go up now that schools are open but the vaccine supposed to cut transmission to an extent. Im hopeful that the worst is over here

Well, I am intrigued because my family in n Italy report major compliance: no one around and 100% mask wearing. No travelling outside one’s “comune” (local town) and no one is mixing households. Obviously some people are (otherwise no third wave!) but it appears that people are just depressed rather than militant.

Their vaccinations are way behind; still doing over 80s. Unlike here you have to request a vaccine, and the doctor’s surgery is vaccinating between 2 and 4 weekday afternoons. There was talk of vaccination centres like in the UK, but that has petered out.