Third wave in Europe Italy going into lockdown

[Mintypylonsfryingsurplus]

Saw today ( dont watch news much now) that some countries in Europe e.g Italy are headed for third wave or going into lockdown. Will we follow as we are usually behind these places by a few weeks. Also Brazil recording highest ever deaths?

Closing borders is a red herring. Just look at Isle of Man.
Not comparable as they haven't vaccinated anywhere near as many people.

Has Italy halted all az or just one batch?
Whats the update with 250k does az to Australia Italy blocked?
I think Italy infectious are very high thye cant afford to suspend vaccination.

"while rules in the public are very strict (e.g. medical grade FFP2 masks only when indoors)"

How does that work? They're really expensive and can't be washed!

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

Dh works with someone who’s parents live near Rome.

Apparently they’ve been injecting the vaccine that has to be kept really cold at the wrong temperature...

Lol. I presume you mean “storing” rather than “injecting”?

I wouldn’t like 0.3ml of anything injected into me at -80 degrees C.

As far as I know you can thaw the Pfizer vaccine to room temperature, but you cannot re-freeze, and must use it within a certain time period (probably hours).

@ChocOrange1

Closing borders is a red herring. Just look at Isle of Man. Not comparable as they haven't vaccinated anywhere near as many people.

Clearly they didn’t keep them closed well enough. A pesky Kent variant has broken through no doubt into a pretty much completely naive (barely any recorded covid cases in the last 12 months) population.

If you are keeping your borders closed, you need to be strict until you’ve achieved herd immunity through vaccination.

Has Italy halted all az or just one batch?
Just that batch for the moment.

The third waves in Europe are due to the B117 variant, with its much higher R0. It spread across the UK very quickly, but in Europe it has taken longer to become the dominant strain

In the UK we've had our third wave, and immunity through both infection and vaccination is high enough that we won't have another. A small hump is possible in the Autumn if vaccination uptake is low in younger age groups.

Look at the chart and notice how the EU and UK second waves are almost identical until the Kent variant rapidly takes hold in the UK. The UK will continue seeing rapid decreases over the next couple of months, whilst the EU feels the effect of the B117 keeping number high.

@starfro

The third waves in Europe are due to the B117 variant, with its much higher R0. It spread across the UK very quickly, but in Europe it has taken longer to become the dominant strain

In the UK we've had our third wave, and immunity through both infection and vaccination is high enough that we won't have another. A small hump is possible in the Autumn if vaccination uptake is low in younger age groups.

Look at the chart and notice how the EU and UK second waves are almost identical until the Kent variant rapidly takes hold in the UK. The UK will continue seeing rapid decreases over the next couple of months, whilst the EU feels the effect of the B117 keeping number high.

I sometimes watch dr cambell covid videos on you tube. Very informative much more detail than the news. The new varient Kent b117 varient was initially smal and slow grow then massive steep rise. Also another factor is how many other of other risky varients with Europe ie South African or Brazilian. I'm not convinced UK won't see another wave as still large part population unaccounted all the under 50s. I think our government shit in so many ways lots i disagree with. However vaccines and genome sequencing we good at. Be interesting see by end if 2022 if France Germany Italy have broadly same death figures as UK as Italy has exceeded 100k deaths. France is still not in lockdown and very high.

I don't feel we can open up holidays yo Europe this summer even if the greeks do want us fully vaccinated British tourists feels too risky at the slow rate they all vaccinating and less restriction than us.
French always been allowed socialise in private homes.

I think that deaths per million will be broadly similar across much of Europe by Spring 2022. The UK won't be in the top ten in Europe by this summer.

There is no problem with foreign holidays this year. The reason numbers are coming down so fast now is that the UK population has large immunity built-in. Vaccinated Brits are going to only catch it abroad in very small numbers, and it then won't be able to spread once they come home because the majority of the population will be immune (herd immunity).

The Kent variant is unstoppable, even with lockdown, if it hits a population with little immunity in winter. The weather is warming up now in Europe which will help, but I can see it lingering for a while before dropping in summer..

From what I saw Italy was using something like our tier system. I wonder whether that will be enough without massively increased vaccination.
I'm not booking any overseas holidays yet.

Has Italy halted all az or just one batch?
Just that batch for the moment.

And now all of it!

@Gerla

Has Italy halted all az or just one batch? Just that batch for the moment.

And now all of it!

I figured they have. They have really high infection too have a feeling they maybe in for a long strict lockdown incase they can get hold of other vaccines fast.

In the UK we've had our third wave, and immunity through both infection and vaccination is high enough that we won't have another
I wish you were right but the "roadmap" was planned with the assumption that there will be another wave.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963400/S1116_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_on_scenario_for_easing_restrictions.pdf

In the UK we've had our third wave, and immunity through both infection and vaccination is high enough that we won't have another

I wish this were true. But it’s not. I think it’s in the headlines today.

Adults (18+) are 77% of the UK population

Gosh that document makes sobering reading (the bits I understand anyway.) When was it modelled? Is it up to date withvaccine take up and current efficacy?

Gosh that document makes sobering reading (the bits I understand anyway.)
I know what you mean, some of it is a bit complex.

When was it modelled?
February as the data in it was used for the "roadmap".

Is it up to date withvaccine take up and current efficacy?*
The models seem to have used optimistic take up figures and the same efficacy as in the trials.

Step line, Canterbury, I remember your posts from what was then the front line in Italy. It helped me prepare for what was coming here, thank you.

Star cat when is the next wave predicted then?

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/19/south-african-covid-variant-uk-neil-ferguson

Sorry to repost a link from another thread.
Those who have pointed out that the Kent variant is causing a lot of the issues in Europe, that is reassuring, especially the graphs etc.

It is concerning that 5-10% of cases are mentioned in the article as being the South African variant, which the article says escapes the AZ vaccine. I think therefore we need to take more measures to stop the SA variant increasing in the UK. That is what Ferguson says in the article (not always popular, but not to be dismissed).

Surely we can only do that by strictly regulating borders and testing there...

And keeping numbers low enough to be able tk do surge testing and track and trace?

Thanks Star Cat. They weren't shouting about it when they released the roadmap were they. Although I do remember chris Whitty not ruling put a return to regulations for winter.

Point 4 is that there is likely to be a higher hospital occupancy than Jan 2021 if all restrictions lifted by start of may. I guess they wont exactly all be lifted then.

The paper has 4 scenarios modelled. I cant work out which one our current reopening most resembles as it is based on tiers ans I cant remember how the tiers correlated. Scenario 1 looks like unlovking by 29th march. Scenario 4 had primary not going back until 5th april so wildly asuming we're close to 2 or 3.

There are then different models to predict outcomes based on different algorithms.

So depending on how quickly they unlock (scenario) and which model we follow there are peaks peedicted between July November. It looks like higher hospital bed occupancy predicted than Jan on 2 of the models and similar deaths to Jan on these 2. However the other model (if we are scenario 2 or 3) does have a third bump but not as big.

I would need someone more statistic- minded to check this.

They all predict another wave. They seem to suggest it is more important to roll oit each stage depending on data not dates (CW did say this didnt he) and the need for more data on how well the vaccine was working. Also a warning about vaccine variants and ifbthe vaccine immunity wanes...

Hmmmmmm 🙄😔

data not dates
Now where have I heard that before??

Do we really think they would delay the re-opening if the data didn't support it though. I get the impression many people are acting as if it will open up soon anyway...

Star cat when is the next wave predicted then?
Second half of 2021.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963400/S1116_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_on_scenario_for_easing_restrictions.pdf

Graphs on page 4