Burst Bubble Already

[GinJeanie]

Posting for reassurance really. I work in a school and we've lost a class/bubble today (on Day 2) due to a positive case. Is this really unusual?
I blinking hope so as wasn't expecting it to happen THIS early. It was a LF test so praying it's down to unreliability. We're obviously all hoping the PCR is negative and they might be able to come back. Not worried about myself (had vaccine) - just desperately don't want to see our poor kids' education disrupted any more. Also, it's a special school so especially hard on the families too... 😕

Be reassured if your DC are in secondary that mask-wearing will be doing a lot to reduce any transmission.
Plus an asymptomatic pupil (presumably if they were school, the chances are they were) would be emitting very little virus, plus the mask...

Half a year group here already. Secondary

The levels of Covid are much higher now than when the kids went back to school in September so sadly I would expect plenty of bursting bubbles. Schools are ready and prepared to switch straight back to online learning for kids who have to isolate.

@starfro

Just remember that as virus levels drop, the probability that a positive result is false increases.

A LFT was a false positive rate of about 1 in 300. The average primary school has 300 pupils, so for every round of testing expect an average of 1 false positive.

At the moment about 1 in 600 people in the UK has Covid. Therefore the probability that a LFT positive result is false is 67%.

So 2 in 3 LFT positives will be false.

1 in 230 n the UK or 1 in 220 in England for the week up to 27th February, most recent figures www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/march2021.

But yes there is a small chance of a false positive.

As the term progresses, and cases rise, the probability that a positive result is false will fall.

the term progresses, and cases rise, the probability that a positive result is false will fall.

That's not a cheery thought, is it?

@noblegiraffe

the term progresses, and cases rise, the probability that a positive result is false will fall.

That's not a cheery thought, is it?

No, which is why fortunately was in inverted commas 'fortunately'

I'm pissed off and worried.

I think false positives are the least of our worries.

Oh my mind is gone, you weren't even quoting me, sometimes I think I have gone

@MonsterKidz

False positives on lateral flow is approx 1 in 1000.

It can't be that straightforward because I know the 4 secondary schools in our town - about 6/7000 kids between them, did not get a single positive at all.

@CovidPostingName

The DfE minister said on Monday that children can't return even with s negative pcr though, so the child can't come back anyway. It's ludicrous.

they backtracked somewhat. They can if the positive LFT was at home. But not if it was done at school as apparently a LFT done at school is 'more reliable'

2 classes (different year groups) bubbles have burst in DS's primary school. First week back.

A whole primary school has been shut near me because of positive cases.

It was my son's year's first ' in school' test today, after they all had to test out of school before returning on Monday.

A bunch of positives have occurred so lots of self isolating is starting.

Looks like it is gonna be a disaster.

Jeez. This is depressing... I think I was being naive thinking we'd get a bit of grace before this started happening. I thought community levels were pretty low but it seems not everywhere

a school near me has sent 'everyone' home (small primary) - the rumour is that 2 teachers has had a positive LFT. Everyone crossing their fingers that they get overturned with a PCR but at the moment everyone is at home which is quite staggering.

Are any of you in the North East?

@GinJeanie

Jeez. This is depressing... I think I was being naive thinking we'd get a bit of grace before this started happening. I thought community levels were pretty low but it seems not everywhere

Community levels are not low, really, just a lot lower than when they were very high! They are currently above where they were on day 3 of September term certainly.

Which is why we should have waited til Easter for at least some years

I thought community levels were pretty low but it seems not everywhere

When you look at the graph, levels are as high as the first wave. All the people warning about it and saying why not return after Easter were ignored.

133 /100,000 in my area, last week it was 178, week before 196.

I think we’re so used to the huge numbers from before Christmas, that we’ve forgotten that numbers aren’t low. They’re just lower than they were.
The average across England is about 60/100k which is moderate, but that’s going to be averaged out by places where the rate is much lower - like parts of the SW and places where the rates are still high.

The average rate across the country isn’t going to be helpful when figuring out how like an individual bubble is to burst.

@WaverleyPirate

I thought community levels were pretty low but it seems not everywhere

When you look at the graph, levels are as high as the first wave. All the people warning about it and saying why not return after Easter were ignored.

that's not possible to ascertain because in the first wave only hospitalised people were getting tested cases are far lower than they were overall in december/Jan, but far higher than they were in the summer

Why did people think levels were low in the first place? It's a respiratory virus, and there have been teachers posting on here about refusing to mask unless that's made mandatory, and refusing to enforce masking. Apparently, it's okay to risk someone else's health, and ignore the fact we're living through a pandemic, with only a small fraction of people fully vaccinated (of the 22 million vaccinated, that's mostly only a first dose... and that vaccination doesn't necessarily prevent transmission anyway).

But hey... Johnson insisted schools open, and all the kids go back. Irreversible decision? Pah. The UK govt has a nasty history of U-turns and "irreversible decisions." A dog-walking friend this morning noted that their PILs were insisting. "Boris said it would all be done by 21st June". We agreed that's highly unlikely because there are an awful lot of people still waiting to be offered a vaccination, and that won't prevent transmission anyway. This may well be with us for some years, but Boris is an incompetent baggage, far too accustomed to bluffing his way through *everything. Basket.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

@GinJeanie

Jeez. This is depressing... I think I was being naive thinking we'd get a bit of grace before this started happening. I thought community levels were pretty low but it seems not everywhere

Not sure why people thought they were low.

Would have much better to keep the restrictions until the end of the Easter break and then have a phased return.

Bubbles bursting from end of next week, are going to start eating into the Easter holidays aren’t they? I’d imagine there’s going to be quite a few pissed off parents and school staff if at the point more stuff opens up on the 29th they are having to self isolate.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss - re thinking levels were lower, I think it was probably a touch of magical thinking on my part if I'm honest. Plus a period of staying away from the stats. Completely naive but I guess I just wanted to dive into the school return as postively as I could, warts and all. I'm a rule-following teacher who hates what this is doing to the kids and their families. I also wish school staff weren't being put through this huge anxiety around being exposed. Of course I know things will improve at some point. Just wish we could do our job properly tbh. Frustrating

I’d imagine there’s going to be quite a few pissed off parents and school staff if at the point more stuff opens up on the 29th they are having to self isolate.

If schools drive up cases more than expected, other restrictions will stay in place beyond the 29th. The Government made it clear that these are earliest dates for the next level of relaxations of restrictions.