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Original poster

Burst Bubble Already

85 replies

GinJeanie · 10/03/2021 00:00

Posting for reassurance really. I work in a school and we've lost a class/bubble today (on Day 2) due to a positive case. Is this really unusual?
I blinking hope so as wasn't expecting it to happen THIS early. It was a LF test so praying it's down to unreliability. We're obviously all hoping the PCR is negative and they might be able to come back. Not worried about myself (had vaccine) - just desperately don't want to see our poor kids' education disrupted any more. Also, it's a special school so especially hard on the families too... 😕

OP posts:
Violetlavenders · 10/03/2021 08:04

I meant why do children have to isolate despite receiving a negative PCR test?

noblegiraffe · 10/03/2021 08:06

It’s mad,Violet but it’s to do with schools so don’t expect any common sense to be applied by this government.

Violetlavenders · 10/03/2021 08:09

Yes, that's mad. It will just discourage parents to withdraw consent for these tests at school.

Lindy2 · 10/03/2021 08:09

It's going to happen unfortunately. Hopefully less often than at the end of last year though when, around here at least, bubbles were bursting all over the place.

I would assume the positive cases caught Covid before lockdown ended, so sadly some (but not all) could be down to rule breaking. That is very unfair on the other classmates, but as we know from posts on here, some people just haven't cared about keeping others safe.

It will be disruptive for the children sent home again but I can't see any other solution. At least the majority can still be in school. It's a numbers game really. The virus is still circulating.

Violetlavenders · 10/03/2021 08:09

Sorry encourage Blush

Carrotcakeforbreakfast · 10/03/2021 08:09

Well my DC bubbles have burst because of me.
I did my weekly lateral flow yesterday and it was positive.
Got DC and DH home from school and work and tested them. 3 out of 4 of us are positive.
DH tested 5 days ago as he had painful sinuses and it was negative so we thought it was his usual sinus issues but doesn't appear to be the case as he is now positive.
Feel so sad for DC as they were excited to be back and I've now woke up feeling terrible as has dd.

UserTwice · 10/03/2021 08:10

We also had a positive case at school yesterday.

But our case rates are the same as in October, when there was a positive case most days, so I guess there's no reason to think the same thing isn't happening now. I'd naively hoped it would be better due to transmission routes being much decreased.

Revengeofthepangolins · 10/03/2021 08:12

The brand of LFT DS1’s school uses has a flaw positive rate of 0.32%. There are 1,250 pupils so they should expect 4 false positives, before one even starts on any real positives. This will be the case in every school.
Once they are doing the tests at home these can be knocked out by PCR but I think the policy for the three taken at school is still that that is me can’t knock them out by PCR, so for the next 10 days that will still be an issue.

But also, presumably there will be asymptomatic cases flushed out by this regime which previously went unnoticed. A striking portion of friends’ children who travelled overseas at Christmas, requiring PCRs to do so were revealed as having infection while feeling fine - presumably there were others at school in the same state who hadn’t travelled.

It n the other hand, research suggests that many such mild infections aren’t caught by LFTs anyway

Ugzbugz · 10/03/2021 08:45

I'm confused for a change, I'm sure I read ages ago if a class had a positive, those testing could stay in school and have daily tests and if they had a positive obviously go home and those who have refused testing would obviously have to isolate?

Also I guess bubbles will burst for a very long time to come as even those vaccinated can still test positive?

Tibtom · 10/03/2021 08:50

In the average secondary school there will be between 1 and 3 false positives with every round of LFT testing.

Tibtom · 10/03/2021 08:54

So you could find the school ends up with a dozen classes isolating and not a single true positive betqeen them.

Original poster
GinJeanie · 10/03/2021 08:55

@Ugzbugz - it may be we're super careful being a special school so could be different to mainstream. We probably have a higher proportion of children with underlying health conditions where the virus might hit them harder. Obviously, a few are shielding but others are in because the advantages for them seem to outweigh potential risk. I guess the Head can't take any chances. Also, social distancing etc is more difficult due to intimate care etc in some cases. Am relieved it's not my class affected and can carry on but gutted it's happened to these kids and their families so soon. They were loving being back and it was taken away almost immediately 🙁

OP posts:
UserTwice · 10/03/2021 08:55

I'm confused for a change, I'm sure I read ages ago if a class had a positive, those testing could stay in school and have daily tests and if they had a positive obviously go home and those who have refused testing would obviously have to isolate?

Yes, that was the (ridiculous) plan ages ago. It's now been rejected, and we're back to the normal "if you've been in contact with a positive case, you have to isolate" advice.

noblegiraffe · 10/03/2021 08:56

That was going to be the policy in January, Ugz but there were loads of complaints from medics, the MHRA etc that LFTs should not be used in that way.

So the government 'paused' it as a general approach but are trialling it in 200 secondaries so expect to see it rolled out sometime after Easter. Hmm

Original poster
GinJeanie · 10/03/2021 09:00

@Violetlavenders - it seems crazy. I'm sure I heard/read that when a HCP gets a positive LFT followed by a negative PCR they can get back to work straight away. I might need to be corrected on that though

OP posts:
Revengeofthepangolins · 10/03/2021 09:04

Ed. Hospital are doing that but it isn’t the rule for schools until they are doing the tests at home. Then it is

ChameleonClara · 10/03/2021 09:06

@noblegiraffe

That was going to be the policy in January, Ugz but there were loads of complaints from medics, the MHRA etc that LFTs should not be used in that way.

So the government 'paused' it as a general approach but are trialling it in 200 secondaries so expect to see it rolled out sometime after Easter. Hmm

Oh dear, do you think this will be rolled out Sad
middleager · 10/03/2021 09:13

Not surprised.

There was a positive case most days at both my DCs' secondaries between September and December.

If you put people closely together for hours in small spaces with poor ventilation and an airborne virus, then what do we expect?

noblegiraffe · 10/03/2021 09:22

My current bet, Chameleon is that they will bin masks after Easter and make another attempt at LFT instead of isolation. I expect the trial schools to have picked up no positive cases in groups that would have been sent home therefore it's 'safe' for them to be in.

The government really wants Operation Moonshot to still be a thing.

Paddingtonthebear · 10/03/2021 09:27

Same, positive keyworker pupil test last week and then a positive school staff test yesterday, two classes now back at home self isolating for ten days, half of them only went back on Monday

ekidmxcl · 10/03/2021 09:27

A school near me had a burst bubble on day 1!

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 10/03/2021 09:33

@Ugzbugz

I'm confused for a change, I'm sure I read ages ago if a class had a positive, those testing could stay in school and have daily tests and if they had a positive obviously go home and those who have refused testing would obviously have to isolate?

Also I guess bubbles will burst for a very long time to come as even those vaccinated can still test positive?

They did. The idea was dropped because it’s bollocks and someone pointed out they must be out of their minds. They are considering bringing back.

In which case I wouldn’t imagine schools will be open for long.

starfro · 10/03/2021 09:37

Just remember that as virus levels drop, the probability that a positive result is false increases.

A LFT was a false positive rate of about 1 in 300. The average primary school has 300 pupils, so for every round of testing expect an average of 1 false positive.

At the moment about 1 in 600 people in the UK has Covid. Therefore the probability that a LFT positive result is false is 67%.

So 2 in 3 LFT positives will be false.

ChameleonClara · 10/03/2021 10:05

@noblegiraffe

My current bet, Chameleon is that they will bin masks after Easter and make another attempt at LFT instead of isolation. I expect the trial schools to have picked up no positive cases in groups that would have been sent home therefore it's 'safe' for them to be in.

The government really wants Operation Moonshot to still be a thing.

This is my fear Sad

My school is talking about temporary mask policy.

ChameleonClara · 10/03/2021 10:06

@starfro

Just remember that as virus levels drop, the probability that a positive result is false increases.

A LFT was a false positive rate of about 1 in 300. The average primary school has 300 pupils, so for every round of testing expect an average of 1 false positive.

At the moment about 1 in 600 people in the UK has Covid. Therefore the probability that a LFT positive result is false is 67%.

So 2 in 3 LFT positives will be false.

'fortunately' rates in schools are expected to rise so this won't be an issue presumably