Erm....Boris WTF are you talking about?!

[PopcornandPretzels]

Hi,

I'm watching the Coronavirus briefing and I can't believe what I'm hearing!

Boris was saying that we saw what happened with other countries, we haven't been far behind in terms of a second wave, we've seen this before etc, as though we all know where this is heading, I.e, a 3rd wave!

He's talking as though this is inevitable! Have I missed something? Have vaccines been announced as useless?

These countries that he's talking about, the ones which we have always "followed in the past", don't have a vaccination programme like ours, so why is he speaking like this?

I feel really angry. He will have scared a lot of people talking like this.

Just in case anyone is still wondering, it boiled down to:

No, I won't comment on The Oprah thing
Yes, I do think the Brexit thing is going as wella s we might have expected
And will you stop asking why we won't hurry up with the Road Map

Followed by journos bemoaning the 'fact' that he said "data not dates" and ignoring the fact that he always said "At the earliest" and that if numbers are lower than the modeeling at thise dates then we will be even better off!

And a lot of other whimpering and some quite spectacular ignoring of what had been said, causing eye rolls and patient re explanations, prefaced with a tired "As I said..."

In short, the data looks good enough that the Road Map dates won't be delayed!

It would have been strange if this virus didn’t mutate. It has been expected and planned for by the scientists.

People can’t see when they are being played by the media/government.

@ChameleonClara from your link

“ COVID-19 vaccines help our bodies develop immunity to the virus that causes COVID-19 without us having to get the illness.”

70% of people may ‘come in contact’ with covid but they’re not going to get ill with it.

Chris Whitty just now in interview.

The vaccinations are very effective but not 100%.

Some -a minority of -people remain vulnerable and we don't know which ones.

Not everyone is vaccinated.

As we open up, we are expecting a surge, either later in the summer or in the autumn.

Hence the previously quoted figures of a possible 30k deaths - we don't really know the figure but it would be 7-9k for a flu season, so a significant number of deaths would be indicated on general principles.

If you open up too fast it would lead to significant numbers of deaths.

The road map is more cautious, but there will definitely be more deaths. The higher level of caution will mean there will be many fewer deaths, but there will still be some.

Transmission is driven by younger people, and a fast unlocking would mean a wave occurring in younger people, some of whom will have serious outcomes.

@herecomesthsun

Chris Whitty just now in interview.

The vaccinations are very effective but not 100%.

Some -a minority of -people remain vulnerable and we don't know which ones.

Not everyone is vaccinated.

As we open up, we are expecting a surge, either later in the summer or in the autumn.

Hence the previously quoted figures of a possible 30k deaths - we don't really know the figure but it would be 7-9k for a flu season, so a significant number of deaths would be indicated on general principles.

If you open up too fast it would lead to significant numbers of deaths.

The road map is more cautious, but there will definitely be more deaths. The higher level of caution will mean there will be many fewer deaths, but there will still be some.

Transmission is driven by younger people, and a fast unlocking would mean a wave occurring in younger people, some of whom will have serious outcomes.

Just watching this. Makes sense. I'm glad they are being sensible.

Yep! And I've just booked my vaccine, I am 55

CuriousaboutSamphire

Yep! And I've just booked my vaccine, I am 55 smile“

Fantastic, isn’t it? Our youngest should have both jabs before he starts his university course mid September.
Just brilliant.

I don’t understand the hand wringing about an increase in deaths. 99% of the deaths were from people in groups 1-6 who have been offered a vaccine or will be in the upcoming weeks.

I understand the vaccine isn’t 100% effective but evidence has shown it’s pretty good in preventing severe disease. Of course we are sadly going to lose people to Covid but the aim was never to stop everyone dying, it was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed.

There will always be ‘some deaths’. We aren’t trying to prevent every death. There has to be balance now the vulnerable are protected.

What about all the cancer diagnoses being missed? We will be dealing with the fallout for this for years and years whilst we obsess over every COVID death.

But 1. we don't actually want more people to die if we can avoid it.

1. very infectious virus that will grow exponentially if it gets the chance. We could easily get a sizeable number of younger people in hospital if we open up too quickly. Lots of BAME people not vaccinated and remain at high risk. Even a tiny proportion of millions would be a really big number, wouldn't it?

1. Listen to this broadcast from the beginning if you can, they are explaining the thinking behind the plan. www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=458827095165478&ref=notif¬if_id=1615283105514785¬if_t=live_video

You cannot stop people dying. It’s a fact of life. People have died and will die as a result of what we’ve had to do over the last year (lost jobs, poorer access to medical care, mental health). It has to be proportionate and reasonable.

People who are extremely vulnerable, like me, may have to alter our lives more than others, even after restrictions ease. I don’t expect the economy to be held in limbo for me.

But people are going to continue to die from Covid every year for the foreseeable future. Just as they die from many other diseases. We need the balance back now.

The government are ramping up the scare tactics as compliance is dropping. The roadmap is overly cautious because of this too. Once hospitalisations are low and deaths are low how will they carry on with their scare tactics? Cue mutant variants and ICUs full of young people

Exponential growth? In a country when most adults have been vaccinated? Ok.

Re cancer diagnoses, we need covid not to be overwhelming hospitals in order for cancer services to work properly.

Managing covid well will really help other hospital services and also will really help the economy as it will enable us to open up following the Road Map.

Here would you change from the current plan? Make it slower? When would each stage happen do you think

Businesses open etc

Most adults have not been vaccinated yet. Even the most vulnerable have in large part only had one vaccination. So exponential case growth is still possible via children and young adults.

Good job we have effective vaccines then so we can get back on with treating other diseases that people also die of. And that we don’t have vaccines for..and that have a worse death rate....

We’re not opening up for another two months. Would you prefer longer? Whilst more people’s businesses go bust?

[quote bumbleymummy]@ChameleonClara from your link

“ COVID-19 vaccines help our bodies develop immunity to the virus that causes COVID-19 without us having to get the illness.”

70% of people may ‘come in contact’ with covid but they’re not going to get ill with it.[/quote]
The comment means if the FIRST time you come into contact with covid is via the vaccine, you can develop immunity without contracting the actual illness. It doesn't stop you subsequently getting infected when you encounter the virus in real life. The fact you have vaccine immunity means your body fights it off more easily (for the majority).

You've misunderstood the quote, which simply explains exactly what I said in the first place.

@Delatron

We’re not opening up for another two months. Would you prefer longer? Whilst more people’s businesses go bust?

No, it doesn't need to be longer, it needs to be better.

I would like:
-stronger border measures (not closures, but the Scottish model)
-better tracing
-funded isolation from work/improved sick pay
-less reliance on LFTs which are not effective

I am not suggesting a change from the current plan in the posts below, I am largely repeating what Chris Whitty just said in the link I gave.

Personally, since you ask, I would have opened schools after Easter, and then done the road map but slightly accelerated, to still finish end of June. However, they didn't ask me .

We are lucky in that we live in an area with low rates. (We chose to live here substantially because I have lung damage and wanted somewhere which would be good for someone with respiratory issues).

It doesn't stop you subsequently getting infected when you encounter the virus in real life. I am happy to be corrected on my use of the word 'infected' as maybe that is the wrong word.

What I mean is - you have had the vaccine, you breathe in the virus, the virus starts to attach/try to replicate, your vaccine immunity kicks it back out.

It isn't like the virus doesn't enter your system at all, is my understanding. But you don't get ill, because it can't take a hold.

I pretty much always agree with Whitty on all this.

Some will want faster or slower but I find this cautious already and makes sense to review each stage.

It's on the cards

Unlocking too quickly will lead to a substantial surge in infection, England’s chief medical officer tells MPs.
Prof Chris Whitty says that would be dangerous, as there are still a lot of vulnerable people who are not protected.
And he says despite the encouraging progress on getting infection rates down, the step-by-step roadmap, which will not see all restrictions lifted until June at the earliest, is needed so the government could monitor the impact of each change.
Some Tory backbench MPs are calling for a faster lifting of restrictions as England has made more progress in cutting infection levels than was expected.
But Prof Whitty tells the Science and Technology Select Committee: "Under all the scenarios, if we unlock very suddenly, all the modelling suggests we would get a substantial surge while a lot of people are not protected.”

@herecomesthsun

Chris Whitty just now in interview.

The vaccinations are very effective but not 100%.

Some -a minority of -people remain vulnerable and we don't know which ones.

Not everyone is vaccinated.

As we open up, we are expecting a surge, either later in the summer or in the autumn.

Hence the previously quoted figures of a possible 30k deaths - we don't really know the figure but it would be 7-9k for a flu season, so a significant number of deaths would be indicated on general principles.

If you open up too fast it would lead to significant numbers of deaths.

The road map is more cautious, but there will definitely be more deaths. The higher level of caution will mean there will be many fewer deaths, but there will still be some.

Transmission is driven by younger people, and a fast unlocking would mean a wave occurring in younger people, some of whom will have serious outcomes.

I think we know who explained it to Boris then! He sounds like me!

Does he?

I’ve lost track so you think this plan is the right way to go?