Erm....Boris WTF are you talking about?!

[PopcornandPretzels]

Hi,

I'm watching the Coronavirus briefing and I can't believe what I'm hearing!

Boris was saying that we saw what happened with other countries, we haven't been far behind in terms of a second wave, we've seen this before etc, as though we all know where this is heading, I.e, a 3rd wave!

He's talking as though this is inevitable! Have I missed something? Have vaccines been announced as useless?

These countries that he's talking about, the ones which we have always "followed in the past", don't have a vaccination programme like ours, so why is he speaking like this?

I feel really angry. He will have scared a lot of people talking like this.

[PrincessNutNuts]

@Delatron

Good job we have effective vaccines then so we can get back on with treating other diseases that people also die of. And that we don’t have vaccines for..and that have a worse death rate....

If we wanted hospitals to be able to treat things other than covid then we shouldn't have let the covid infection level build for three months in early 2020, or again in late 2020.

Nipping it in the bid in the first place or getting infection levels low and keeping them there would have solved that.

So we should do this right this time.

So we don't have to have more lockdowns.

[PrincessNutNuts]

@MarshaBradyo

Does he?

I’ve lost track so you think this plan is the right way to go?

No. It starts too early at too high an infection level. We had over 60,000 cases last week. In lockdown.

I mean the things he is reported as saying such as

The vaccinations are very effective but not 100%.

Some -a minority of -people remain vulnerable and we don't know which ones.

Not everyone is vaccinated.

Opening up could lead to tens of thousands of deaths in a new surge/wave.

Etc.

[MarshaBradyo]

Yes I agree with all his statements - although obviously he’s going to be right in general.

Whether everyone thinks that cost he outlines is greater than the cost of waiting is another thing.

The costs are very high both ways and not all on here will agree.

[bumbleymummy]

@Delatron

But people are going to continue to die from Covid every year for the foreseeable future. Just as they die from many other diseases. We need the balance back now.

The government are ramping up the scare tactics as compliance is dropping. The roadmap is overly cautious because of this too. Once hospitalisations are low and deaths are low how will they carry on with their scare tactics? Cue mutant variants and ICUs full of young people

Exponential growth? In a country when most adults have been vaccinated? Ok.

A country where the most vulnerable have been vaccinated AND a large number have been infected and recovered and now have immunity.

[SonnetForSpring]

@herecomesthsun

I am not suggesting a change from the current plan in the posts below, I am largely repeating what Chris Whitty just said in the link I gave.

Personally, since you ask, I would have opened schools after Easter, and then done the road map but slightly accelerated, to still finish end of June. However, they didn't ask me .

We are lucky in that we live in an area with low rates. (We chose to live here substantially because I have lung damage and wanted somewhere which would be good for someone with respiratory issues).

The reason they opened up before Easter is so if required, the Easter holidays can act as a fire break. They don't know how opening schools will impact on case numbers or hospitalizations.

[Delatron]

We didn’t have a vaccination program last year. Hence the blunt instrument of lockdowns.

I do like Chris Whitty. But he’s not an economist.
He is primarily concerned with public health. He would probably like everything to stay shut even longer. He would like Covid deaths to be zero.

But the discussion has to be about balance. Hence all the talk at the moment about the restrictions lasting too long. As they are far too damaging in so many areas.

Perspective has been lost. It’s correct to question the government when the vaccination program is going better than predicted, when the latest evidence shows that vaccines are more effective than we thought, that they are having an impact on transmission. Then why are we still in some form of lockdown for months to come.

[Delatron]

I notice the ‘protect the NHS’ narrative has now changed. Thought that was the aim?

[MarshaBradyo]

@Delatron

We didn’t have a vaccination program last year. Hence the blunt instrument of lockdowns.

I do like Chris Whitty. But he’s not an economist.
He is primarily concerned with public health. He would probably like everything to stay shut even longer. He would like Covid deaths to be zero.

But the discussion has to be about balance. Hence all the talk at the moment about the restrictions lasting too long. As they are far too damaging in so many areas.

Perspective has been lost. It’s correct to question the government when the vaccination program is going better than predicted, when the latest evidence shows that vaccines are more effective than we thought, that they are having an impact on transmission. Then why are we still in some form of lockdown for months to come.

I don’t think he would like this.

He has talked about an acceptable amount of deaths a few times.

I broadly agree and I don’t see his statement below as saying we can’t have these 30k deaths, more this is what to expect.

But if you go faster it will be more.

[PrincessNutNuts]

@Delatron

What's a year of not getting covid under control properly done to help the economy?

If we don't get it under control this time we'll spend just as many weeks in restrictions and lockdowns as we did last year.

Some of us don't want that.

[PrincessNutNuts]

The reason they opened up before Easter is so if required, the Easter holidays can act as a fire break. They don't know how opening schools will impact on case numbers or hospitalizations.

They do know @SonnetForSpring.

That's why the CMO is on tv talking about tens of thousands of deaths.

[Delatron]

I think lockdown is a very blunt tool with devastating effects to be used in an emergency and you get one shot. For many reasons we messed that up. We can not think lockdown part 4 or 5 is a good strategy going forward.

‘Getting the virus under control’ doesn’t happen. A virus will follow its natural path. Lockdowns delay this path. We delayed the path of the virus because of the pressure on the NHS and the risk of overwhelming it. The goal is not to have no deaths from Covid.
We have vaccinations now. Effective ones.

In winter there is a risk to the NHS as it’s pretty much overwhelmed every winter. In summer not so much.

[PrincessNutNuts]

I sincerely hope that the plan is not to allow 10- 12,000 deaths a month like in autumn 2020, offset by some months that are much lower because we've been in lockdown, or the kids have been off school.

With 50,000 deaths already in 2021, that would make this year's covid death toll worse than last year's and take us into 2022 on the crest of another wave.

[MarshaBradyo]

What did he say?

Is the 30k linked to a timeframe?

[Delatron]

Why would we have a similar death rate to last autumn?

When most adults will vaccinated by the summer?

[MarshaBradyo]

And is that with the current plan

[PrincessNutNuts]

@Delatron

I think lockdown is a very blunt tool with devastating effects to be used in an emergency and you get one shot. For many reasons we messed that up. We can not think lockdown part 4 or 5 is a good strategy going forward.

‘Getting the virus under control’ doesn’t happen. A virus will follow its natural path. Lockdowns delay this path. We delayed the path of the virus because of the pressure on the NHS and the risk of overwhelming it. The goal is not to have no deaths from Covid.
We have vaccinations now. Effective ones.

In winter there is a risk to the NHS as it’s pretty much overwhelmed every winter. In summer not so much.

The Lockdowns were all bad ideas, but what choice does a government have when they've let covid spread for months and they can see 30,000 British people are about to die of covid next month?

And if they've really screwed it up 20,000 will die the month after as well.

And of course you can control a virus. It's what we do with polio and measles.

[Delatron]

Yes you can control a virus with vaccinations! Not endless lockdowns and then massive spikes when you release.

[PrincessNutNuts]

@Delatron

Why would we have a similar death rate to last autumn?

When most adults will vaccinated by the summer?

Because the plan is not to be in Tier 3 next autumn.

And maths.

[Delatron]

@PrincessNutNuts so you think vaccinating most of the adult population will have no effect?

[MarshaBradyo]

Where did the 30k in a month come from?

Here’s what he said

It was impossible to predict exactly how many would die, Prof Whitty said.

He said it would be a "significant number", though nothing like we had seen over the past year.

"The ratio of cases to deaths will go right down as a result of vaccination - but not right down to zero unfortunately," he said.

[Bordois]

Where did the 30k in a month come from?

Same place as 3.3m doses given in December

[CuriousaboutSamphire]

I've no idea Marsha Too many shouting the odds with weird numbers and strang assertions that miss some obvious facts.

I'm trying to work through some of the posts but have been distracted by some feminist court cases!

[herecomesthsun]

So, if I were going on holiday somewhere exotic, I would have vaccinations.

But I would have the vaccinations before I went on holiday, and give them enough time to take effect.

I wouldn't wait until the end of my holiday, or until I got back to the UK, as timing is of the essence to give protection.

Sending all the kids back to school together before the vaccinations have even been rolled out to groups 1-9 is like setting off on holiday before you have got round to having your jabs.

It means that a) there will be deaths that could have been avoided b) we have had an opportunity to come through the pandemic into the summer in a very positive way and we have chosen to jeopardize this.

There is a lot being said about opportunities for children, which are of course very important. And also the economy.

Though you could argue just as well that education and the economy would benefit greatly from a clear shot at a summer with low infection rates and fewer problems (and deaths).

Fingers crossed, eh.

[ChameleonClara]

We control measles effectively but have had many many years of vaccinating and vaccinate children.

We limit flu with vaccines. We will not control covid with vaccines, we will limit it.

[lljkk]

30k deaths in a single month would be avg 1000/day, which was about the daily death toll on 4 Feb, smack in middle of huge current lockdown.

30k deaths by end of 2021 is a more likely scenario that CW meant.

Polio is controlled via both good sanitation & jabs.

Measles is imperfectly controlled. About 500 cases/yr in England recently?