What is going to happen when we unlock?

[MyOldSelf]

This is not a doom and gloom post as I am glad lockdown is coming to an end. However, I do think we all need to take a moment to think about what is going to happen.

The virus has not gone away. Yes, people are being vaccinated and the number of hospital admissions is coming down and the deaths are following. However, DC are going back to school and people will be going back to work. Surely the transmissions will go up again and go up quickly in the under 50's and younger? My elderly relatives are happy they are being vaccinated and are gagging to get out and about. What about people like me and DH though. The under 40's who will be returning to school soon and getting the train?

As I said, I'm happy it is going to come to an end but surely we all need prepping for the fact that transmissions will go up and we are expected to Keep Calm and Carry On.

returning to work, not school.

Most people in group six onwards will have mild/no symptoms, if they catch it at all.

If a very few end up in hospital, it won't be in numbers that overwhelm the poorly structured and financed NHS.

The government's worries are over as far as corona in concerned.

Lots of children have been going to school throughout. Lots of people have been going out to work throughout, traffic is heaving where I am. In my area infections have been higher in lockdown than when schools were open fully . I think this virus like many others is seasonal hence no covid deaths at all here last summer.

The number of infections isn't the problem, it's whether the NHS will be overwhelmed.

Infection rates will go up but if people are just getting it mildly what does it matter.

Yes numbers of cases will go up but as the most vulnerable will be vaccinated (and before anyone says, only partly, the one vaccine gives better protection than the flu jab does), in fact by the time everything opens near enough every adult (who can have it) will have been offered it. This will mean that large numbers of cases won't translate to large numbers of hospitalisation and deaths. Yes some people will still get ill and some will die, but the NHS won't be overwhelmed. Lovkdown was never about stopping everybody from catching it, nor about keeping everybody out of hospital or even stopping anyone from dying, it was about stopping the (woefully underfunded) nhs from collapsing.
Sometime over the summer/autumn mass testing will quietly be shelved, the government data page will no longer be updated and the only time someone dying of covid makes the news is if they were one of the very few that are younger and not considered vulnerable (or if they were famous).

The alert level has already been reduced. It’s all about the NHS capacity. So yes the under 40s might catch it but that age group is not going to cripple the NHS needing beds.

Haven’t you been paying attention?

Surely the transmissions will go up again and go up quickly in the under 50's and younger?

Yes, it will. However, those people are more likely to survive and not need hospital treatment (in the short term anyway, as long covid could still be an issue). It’s a difficult balance though between the NHS being overwhelmed and keeping the economy going.

A lot of employers are continuing with wfh, either full time or part of the week, so that will help a bit. It’s still looking likely that between 21st June (if restrictions end then) and 21st August (assuming all adults who want to have their first vaccination by the end of July, so allowing three weeks for immunity to build up) will be quite risky for a large number of people. Even more so if travelling abroad to countries that aren’t vaccinating in high numbers yet and if lots of people in this country decline the vaccine.

Well cases will go up but less people will need treatment & die.
I think the gov has a difficult task though to try & keep a balance. Lots of my relatives have had the first jab & they have definitely relaxed (even the shielded ones) & they are all planning on going on holiday 🤷🏻‍♀️

They will catch the virus and almost certainly will be fine! Cases are irrelevant now. Only hospital admissions and deaths. They should be kept at an acceptable level with the vulnerable now vaccinated..

The whole idea of lockdown was to stop people giving this virus to elderly and vulnerable...

The government's worries are over as far as corona in concerned

^^ this.

I find it really interesting to note how the narrative has changed in the news. Even at really low level, such as local radio, the first story on the news isn't Covid related. The fear campaign is switching. Which I am glad about!

I suspect many people will continue to be fairly cautious for quite some time. We’ve all had enough and don’t want to be here again.
As long as we can see our parents, children and grandchild, our youngest can start at university, we do our own shopping and go for a walk where we don’t live then celebrate Christmas together, that will do for us for a while, until we see how things are going.

@LucilleTheVampireBat

The government's worries are over as far as corona in concerned

^^ this.

I find it really interesting to note how the narrative has changed in the news. Even at really low level, such as local radio, the first story on the news isn't Covid related. The fear campaign is switching. Which I am glad about!

Totally agree here... I think the media will be passed that the vaccine rollout is going so well... they are now struggling to scare people so will have moved onto the next thing people care about which is holidays.

Its so obvious what they are doing especially in the press conferences when 10 different media outlets ask exactly the same question as thats the story they believe will get the most views.

The government's worries are over as far as corona in concerned. This is bold!!

What is going to happen is either:

• cases are going to rise, but the vaccine stays ahead of variants and children do not have ill effects from catching covid twice a year
• cases are going to rise, we have vaccine issues and/or children have ill effects from catching covid

By ill effects I do not mean hospitalisations or serious illness, I mean like glandular fever level issues affecting schooling for a noticeable minority.

Economically I think we will be slightly hampered if cases are not controlled as the unvaccinated and tourists may be wary. If I was a tourist from Japan I would definitely be thinking NZ not UK this year!

Pissed*

It won’t cause a problem on a national level to the NHS. On a personal level I saw a programme on Horizon bbc 2 yesterday with someone researching long covid. They said that it is important to take things slowly and recover properly even from a case that is mild. They found that pushing through can sometimes make things worse long term. Unfortunately easier said than done if you have children to look after or a job with low sick pay or a bad manager.

@PracticingPerson

The government's worries are over as far as corona in concerned. This is bold!!

What is going to happen is either:

• cases are going to rise, but the vaccine stays ahead of variants and children do not have ill effects from catching covid twice a year
• cases are going to rise, we have vaccine issues and/or children have ill effects from catching covid

By ill effects I do not mean hospitalisations or serious illness, I mean like glandular fever level issues affecting schooling for a noticeable minority.

Economically I think we will be slightly hampered if cases are not controlled as the unvaccinated and tourists may be wary. If I was a tourist from Japan I would definitely be thinking NZ not UK this year!

Very minimal cases of covid being caught twice... you speak as if it will happen to the majority... lockdown has never been about protecting our children. Yes there is a small chance a new variant could effect them. However we can't just close everything indefinitely just incase.... you are basically suggesting we test forever just incase it gets out of control.

I am rather concerned too and feeling quite vulnerable as starting a new job next week. It's not just the under 40s either surely I don't think under 60s are jabbed yet and may not be until end of April.

I hope it's over/under control for good. We've got tickets for an event in aug and we've booked a holiday in the UK.

That said I can't help the unsettling feeling that it might not be the end of it. Viruses like to survive and we all know these mutants could well become vaccine resistant. So on the one hand I'm looking forward to a wedding in July but on the other who knows wtf will happen. I'm just relieved they are taking the next steps very cautiously.

Yes, transmission and cases will go up once schools reopen to all children and this will continue until everyone over 18 has been offered a vaccine (hoping take up will be high). It's inevitable that hospitalisations will also increase and that some people will die- unless we go for Zero Covid or delay the first stage of reopening until the summer there is no way of avoiding this. If the vaccines prevent e.g. 95% of hospitalisations (might be less) and 95% of over 50s take them that will still leave at least 10% vulnerable to a serious outcome until transmission is reduced further over the summer.

I'm not sure how I feel about this- I've been extremely cautious throughout but I concede that we can't stay in lockdown forever and that hard choices have to be made! I think most office-based staff will continue to WFH until 2022 so this may reduce transmission over the autumn/winter and we'll see less of a spike.

I do wonder about mass testing (and test and trace) long-term though- I can't see this stopping as we need to test for new variants. My guess is that mass testing will continue until most countries around the world have vaccinated their populations.

I expect there will be an increase in cases but without a significant increase in hospitalisations and/or deaths. As long as the latter doesn’t follow the former then problem solved from the government’s perspective and we all crack on.

A fair few work places are still advising wfh if you can I expect this will continue until all adults have been offered a vsccination.

Hospitality when it opens will still have instancing measures in place again until all adults have been offered vaccine.

Lockdown measures are opening slowly and if cases rise too much the "brakes will be out on".

According to the data all adults will be offered a first dose by end of July. All adults.

It's not that far away.

Kids back at school for X3 weeks then a couple of weeks off for Easter. They can have more time outdoors during summer term. Cases are reducing hence less circulation of virus. We can all socialise outdoors as the weather gets milder.

It could be worse, a lot worse.

The number of infections isn't the problem, it's whether the NHS will be overwhelmed.

This. And the NHS won't be overwhelmed as the vast majority of cases will be mild.

I think lots will catch it but will not need hospitalisation.

It's only just occured to me, but after June 21st will we still be scanning into places for Track and Trace, and having to self isolate because of contact with a positive case?

The government's worries are over as far as corona in concerned

Do not agree with this at all , we have a economy and other illness out there !!!!!! It is not all covid

@Dolciedolly

The government's worries are over as far as corona in concerned

Do not agree with this at all , we have a economy and other illness out there !!!!!! It is not all covid

Sorry I read it wrong 😑