What is going to happen when we unlock?

[MyOldSelf]

This is not a doom and gloom post as I am glad lockdown is coming to an end. However, I do think we all need to take a moment to think about what is going to happen.

The virus has not gone away. Yes, people are being vaccinated and the number of hospital admissions is coming down and the deaths are following. However, DC are going back to school and people will be going back to work. Surely the transmissions will go up again and go up quickly in the under 50's and younger? My elderly relatives are happy they are being vaccinated and are gagging to get out and about. What about people like me and DH though. The under 40's who will be returning to school soon and getting the train?

As I said, I'm happy it is going to come to an end but surely we all need prepping for the fact that transmissions will go up and we are expected to Keep Calm and Carry On.

@PracticingPerson

The vaccines are amazing but somehow the reality has got lost again.

If a vaccine prevents 90% of deaths we will still get deaths.

We will still get deaths. Unfortunately we will have to accept that as we can't guarantee no deaths ever again.

The flu vaccine is only 50-60 per cent effective.

Yes we will still get deaths.
Chris whitty has explained this. People still don't get it.
Lockdowns are coming to a end.

Statistically everyone under 40 without health conditions will be fine. Statistically basically none of them will even need to be hospitalised. Long covid is a risk but the data on that is still super unclear - the surveys I’ve seen ask if you still have symptoms 3-6 weeks after which is nothing if you had a 2 week bad flu type illness. Having fatigue or weakness is not unusual after flu and all viruses have a risk of post viral syndrome. So basically - there is no risk, people need to accept that, look at the numbers, and move on.

Just checked and a January BBC article says for those under 40 (including those with serious health conditions) the risk of death is 0.1%. Hospitalisation rates for those under 44 were fewer than 10 people per 100,000 (again, including those with any kind of health condition including serious ones). For comparison it was 110 per 100,000 for 75-84 and 250 for those over 85. So statistically the risk was always for the elderly. I wish people would appreciate they’re not special, statistics apply to them too and they’re not at risk.

We will still get deaths. Unfortunately we will have to accept that as we can't guarantee no deaths ever again.

I have never suggested we won't get deaths. I have simply stated the government is preparing for a spike from September, given that is what SAGE modelled.

And then I get asked why there will be deaths, as if people didn't understand there would be deaths.

Some people clearly think the vaccines are the end of this. They are not.

I think in lockdown there is a lot less urgency for most people to book a test. If they're feeling a bit under the weather but don't need to be anywhere, it takes a particularly civic minded person to get out and along for a test. Call me cynical but a lot won't bother. Once schools return there will be more of a need to book a test should your child have symptoms and so demand will increase. That was Didos big miss last time. She couldn't keep up with demand and lots of people gave up. Add the positives from the lateral flow tests which will start soon and there's likely to be a worrying looking rise, but it's likely to be cases that have been sitting untouched if you see what I mean.

My mum hasnt left the house since this all started! If I even hint on the phone about future plans etc shes quick to shut them down and saying people are getting complacent. I’ve been working throughout am out and about every day mixing with people through my job. It’s like another world for those who have been shut away.

Covid is not just a bad cough, it affects multiple organs, including neurological symptoms too. For an unlucky few, the overwhelming majority of people suffer very mild if any symptoms, let's not forget that. It is the same as flu in that sense, most people get it mildy, some are hospitalised, some die, there are always new variants and the vaccines are adjusted accordingly. I have absolutely no doubt covid will be treated in the same way flu has been over the years, regular vaccines and let's get on with living.
Those who have spent the last year at home seem to be much more fearful than those of who haven't had that privilege.

It is x10 on flu for all age groups bar the very young.

Those who have spent the last year at home seem to be much more fearful than those of who haven't had that privilege.

If we reverse this it could be more:

Those who've had to go out have had to convince themselves it's not that serious.

The reality is as ever likely to be in the middle.

What I don't get about the SAGE predictions on projected hospitalisations and deaths from when we open everything up is how will the NHS cope with it without a lockdown? The numbers look high on almost all of the Warwick and Imperial scenarios.

The models look dubious to me.

I've read this blog post about it

velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-covid-modellers-have-jumped-shark.html?m=1

It is x10 on flu for all age groups bar the very young.

Not sure what that even means? Do you mean the death rate is 10 X higher? That was the case when the virus was new and unknown and there was no vaccine or treatment because we had vaccines and treatment for flu not covid, now there is I suspect the death rate will be more in line with flu.