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What is going to happen when we unlock?

62 replies

MyOldSelf · 26/02/2021 08:45

This is not a doom and gloom post as I am glad lockdown is coming to an end. However, I do think we all need to take a moment to think about what is going to happen.

The virus has not gone away. Yes, people are being vaccinated and the number of hospital admissions is coming down and the deaths are following. However, DC are going back to school and people will be going back to work. Surely the transmissions will go up again and go up quickly in the under 50's and younger? My elderly relatives are happy they are being vaccinated and are gagging to get out and about. What about people like me and DH though. The under 40's who will be returning to school soon and getting the train?

As I said, I'm happy it is going to come to an end but surely we all need prepping for the fact that transmissions will go up and we are expected to Keep Calm and Carry On.

OP posts:
Chatterbox1987 · 26/02/2021 11:34

@MrsTophamHat

I think lots will catch it but will not need hospitalisation.

It's only just occured to me, but after June 21st will we still be scanning into places for Track and Trace, and having to self isolate because of contact with a positive case?

Not if everything has lifted by 21st June... the only thing that isn't happening on that date is masks and social distancing... however they are reviewing this over the next few weeks and I expect some sort of vague date will be given for it.... however I do expect it to return november-febuary if hospitalizations reach a certain level...
AIMummy · 26/02/2021 13:34

I had a mild case of covid. I've now had long covid for months. IMO deaths will reduce significantly but long covid numbers will rise massively.

PrincessNutNuts · 26/02/2021 14:04

Most people don't seem worried about this plan to ignore the R, not concern ourselves about case numbers, allow high prevalence and turn our country into Mutant Covid Central.

Even though everyone must know that high prevalence increases the chances of getting more variants of concern which can evade the vaccines.

(Those same vaccines on which this entire opening up so heavily depends.)

And being Mutant Plague Island will increase the likelihood of other countries firmly closing their doors to us.

There also seems to be a degree of magical thinking about boosters. As if, on discovering a variant that can beat the vaccines we will instantly produce a new vaccine, and instantly jab the whole country with it.

When in reality we'd likely have to go back into lockdown for six months while that was happening.

And we still don't know what opening up long before achieving the herd immunity threshold will do. (Or what the HIT actually is.)

Or what the long term effects of covid on our children will be.

But we do know that SAGE think opening up over 3 months will create another wave, and that they advised the government that doing it slowly over 9 months would save tens of thousands of British lives.

And we've always exceeded SAGE's reasonable worst case covid death estimates so far.

We must be at about 150,000 covid deaths by now, so what? 200,000 by June?

Chatterbox1987 · 26/02/2021 14:13

@AIMummy

I had a mild case of covid. I've now had long covid for months. IMO deaths will reduce significantly but long covid numbers will rise massively.
Long covid was just another scare tactic to get people to adhere to lockdown tho. Not sayings its not real. However every single illness can and does effect some people long term. So many times people have said how they haven't been right for months after having a cough or a cold before etc but we don't pay attention to that.
MyOldSelf · 26/02/2021 14:23

Haven’t you been paying attention?

Not as much as I should have because my step mum died of Covid, my dad and brother have had it and I think I had it back in March but wasn't tested. I've been busy trying to manage my family and the fallout.

Whatever I had in March I don't want again and I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy.

I am just a bit concerned that people think this is over. It's not. We have just had a positive vaccine program. Once my DC and DH go back to work on public transport they may catch it. I am very happy that we are opening up and will be free from the end of June but personally, I am still enforcing my own Covid standards and not going to think it is all over.

OP posts:
Waxonwaxoff0 · 26/02/2021 14:44

@MyOldSelf

Haven’t you been paying attention?

Not as much as I should have because my step mum died of Covid, my dad and brother have had it and I think I had it back in March but wasn't tested. I've been busy trying to manage my family and the fallout.

Whatever I had in March I don't want again and I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy.

I am just a bit concerned that people think this is over. It's not. We have just had a positive vaccine program. Once my DC and DH go back to work on public transport they may catch it. I am very happy that we are opening up and will be free from the end of June but personally, I am still enforcing my own Covid standards and not going to think it is all over.

Some of us have been working out the home using public transport this entire time. Time to get on with it now.
starfish4 · 26/02/2021 14:55

It's looking and feeling more positive right now, but I do hope people stick to the guidelines so there's no big jump in numbers, especially with variants out there. Also that people continue to wear masks and distance as there are many who still haven't had the vaccine and don't want to get covid.

lunapeace · 26/02/2021 14:55

Party!

PracticingPerson · 26/02/2021 15:35

you are basically suggesting we test forever just incase it gets out of control.

I'm thinking a year or so, til we know what's what. Not forever by a long stretch.

PracticingPerson · 26/02/2021 15:39

Very minimal cases of covid being caught twice... you speak as if it will happen to the majority...

The reason we haveinimal numbers of second infections is we have had lockdowns. If we get rid of distancing and other measures then the virus will circulate freely amongst the unvaccinated. This will result in mutations and so it will be caught and recaught.

This is just standard virus behaviour.

It might not matter, it might matter. But don't try to pretend it won't happen.

Cindy87 · 26/02/2021 15:44

If you are under 40, it doesn't matter if you get it any more than it matters if you get flu or any other type of coronavirus, such as the common cold.

PracticingPerson · 26/02/2021 15:50

@Cindy87

If you are under 40, it doesn't matter if you get it any more than it matters if you get flu or any other type of coronavirus, such as the common cold.
This is absolute nonsense!! Covid risks at 35 are low, but still x10 compared to flu and massively higher than a cold.

It most definitely matters more.

TrustTheGeneGenie · 26/02/2021 15:51

but under 50s and children are much less likely to need hospital admission, you're no more likely to be admitted to hospital now than you were six months ago when nobody was vaccinated...

cases shouldnt matter, only admissions should, and those most vulnerable of admission have mostly been vaccinated now, so have good protection, and when they get vaccinated again will have excellent protection - hospital admissions in theory should continue to drop shouldnt they?

TrustTheGeneGenie · 26/02/2021 15:52

@PracticingPerson

Very minimal cases of covid being caught twice... you speak as if it will happen to the majority...

The reason we haveinimal numbers of second infections is we have had lockdowns. If we get rid of distancing and other measures then the virus will circulate freely amongst the unvaccinated. This will result in mutations and so it will be caught and recaught.

This is just standard virus behaviour.

It might not matter, it might matter. But don't try to pretend it won't happen.

where is your evidence for that? evidence of second cases is rare, and there are places that havent had continous lockdowns..
nordica · 26/02/2021 15:52

A lot of scientists who understand about viruses are saying new variants are a real concern in a partially vaccinated population if infection rates go up a lot... That would of course undo all the hard work that's gone into the vaccination programme. I really hope it won't happen but it's hard to imagine we won't see new variants, just depends on the timings.

Personally I do worry about covid even though I'm (just) under 40. People compare it to colds and flu but I can't say I've ever heard of anyone ending up with permanent lung damage or kidney damage or having a blood clot as a result of flu whereas I do know of people I know of having these from covid - even people who were very healthy before and are in their 30s/40s. Covid is not just a bad cough, it affects multiple organs, including neurological symptoms too.

TrustTheGeneGenie · 26/02/2021 15:54

I can't say I've ever heard of anyone ending up with permanent lung damage or kidney damage or having a blood clot as a result of flu whereas I do know of people I know of having these from covid

i got permenant liver damage from a bout of glandular fever at about 17. it was shit. it still is shit, but meh what can you do, the majority are fine, same with covid.

Cookerhood · 26/02/2021 15:59

The problem is that if it circulates in the under 40s it will almost certainly mutate & we may be back at the beginning of it evades the current vaccine. The only way of this not happening is to keep down transmission of the virus. If we can do that until the over 18s have been vaccinated we should be ok, fingers crossed. They seem to think there will be a 4th wave in the summer/autumn though :(

PracticingPerson · 26/02/2021 16:01

where is your evidence for that? evidence of second cases is rare, and there are places that havent had continous lockdowns..

I don't have 'evidence' as I haven't carried out a study but this would be normal if we have variants circulating without control measures. We all catch colds all the time. We can catch flu every year. Why would covid be different?

PracticingPerson · 26/02/2021 16:02

@Cookerhood

The problem is that if it circulates in the under 40s it will almost certainly mutate & we may be back at the beginning of it evades the current vaccine. The only way of this not happening is to keep down transmission of the virus. If we can do that until the over 18s have been vaccinated we should be ok, fingers crossed. They seem to think there will be a 4th wave in the summer/autumn though :(
They are indeed planning for a spike in September.
TrustTheGeneGenie · 26/02/2021 16:37

@PracticingPerson

where is your evidence for that? evidence of second cases is rare, and there are places that havent had continous lockdowns..

I don't have 'evidence' as I haven't carried out a study but this would be normal if we have variants circulating without control measures. We all catch colds all the time. We can catch flu every year. Why would covid be different?

because its not a cold or a flu? maybe it doesnt mutate as fast, maybe you cant catch the same variant twice..

us catching colds and flu more than once is irrelevant!

TrustTheGeneGenie · 26/02/2021 16:37

They are indeed planning for a spike in September

why is that?

because everyone over 18 will have been vaccinated by then... why is it likely there will be a spike?

Waxonwaxoff0 · 26/02/2021 16:38

Who exactly is planning for a spike in September?

PracticingPerson · 26/02/2021 16:42

because its not a cold or a flu? maybe it doesnt mutate as fast, maybe you cant catch the same variant twice.. it mutates as we have seen, but not as quickly as originally feared. We know people can catch variants, as we have seen.

PracticingPerson · 26/02/2021 16:46

@Waxonwaxoff0

Who exactly is planning for a spike in September?
SAGE/government.

'spike' does not mean as many deaths as this year but covid is not going away.

They modelled four scenarios to inform this lockdown easing, the government did not take one of them exactly but the closest scenario has significant deaths from September, with vaccines factored in.

PracticingPerson · 26/02/2021 16:58

The vaccines are amazing but somehow the reality has got lost again.

If a vaccine prevents 90% of deaths we will still get deaths.

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