Do people really think this is the road to the end...?! Surely NOT!

[Violetsarered]

Do you honestly think we’re on the road to the end of all this...?!

Here’s how I see things...

New variants will emerge - back into lockdown
Vaccines won’t be as effective as thought - back into lockdown

I’m not sure why people believe that life will be normal by June.

I would bet my house on the fact that it won’t.
We are such a long long LONG way from normality.

Don’t mean to be a doom monger but people really need to keep things in perspective

See

😂. Can you both come back and tell us when you’re going to desperately name change in a couple of months so folks don’t know it was you?

I think we are going to have to treat it like a very serious flu. Keep developing or adapting vaccines for new strains and have booster vaccines for the most vulnerable.
Maybe mask wearing in indoor public spaces in winter especially but overall we have to believe things will improve.

@Cissyandflora

I have a friend on the front line. She says we will be back to deaths of 1000 + per day a couple of weeks after we come out of lockdown. I’m really not a doom monger and neither is she. But she’s seeing it. She’s losing colleagues. She’s normally incredibly strong and pragmatic but after a year she is now traumatised. It is tantalising to think this could all be over in a couple of months but realistically we are not there and it could get worse yet.

A mere couple of weeks after lock down your friend states 1000 plus deaths....has she not seen how the vaccine is working...does she really work front line. My nurse and one doctor friend don't see it that way at all....

I have a friend on the front line. She says we will be back to deaths of 1000 + per day a couple of weeks after we come out of lockdown. I’m really not a doom monger and neither is she. But she’s seeing it. She’s losing colleagues. She’s normally incredibly strong and pragmatic but after a year she is now traumatised

I can well imagine she is traumatized and that is probably driving her thought processes. Vaccinating medical staff should be a no 1 priority and a large number have already been done. Those that refuse the vaccine or aren't there on the day of vaccination- that's really worrying, but the majority will or have already been done. We won't go back to 1000 deaths a day because a) the vaccine has already been given to 1/3 of the population over 18, and most of the most vulnerable b) the one dose is more effective than we thought, up to 95% effective at preventing death, and 70% of stopping even mild illness and c) this is a seasonal illness that abates, like flu, in the better weather d) variants do exist but the current vaccines protect somewhat against them and new vaccines will deal with them e) we know how to treat covid so much better now, there's a lot of different drugs that have been tested and are cheap and effective.

If for any reason rates suddenly go crazy, then we won't go to the next stage of loosening up.

Your friend is very pessimistic and probably depressed and traumatized by what she has experienced, and the piling up of severe cases over the winter, but this won't continue in the same way for lots of reasons.

See ^

Oh, well, if one random person on MN said it, then it must be true!

I find it quite amusing. They are so desperate for this not to be the end they come on here and say “look I know better than witty and valance and people this is what you need to believe, hear me hear me” when in reality it’s just some unqualified random sitting at home proclaiming to be an expert

True.
I find the narrative of "we are all going to die", "don't you know you're going to die", "be happy you are going to die", "why are you happy, don't you know you're going to die", "I know you're going to die", "so stupid to not realise you will die" so helpful!

@GlubGlubGlub

Pandemics have to end some time. They don’t go on forever and that’s without vaccines and modern medicine.

We will have to learn to live with Covid, yes, but most people are rational and can see that things are going to improve.

^^ agree with this

I don't think things will be completely 'normal' as in unaffected by covid whatsoever, I think people will still be wearing masks, some people won't want to mix/go out (just like last summer, some people are happy with risks, some aren't), not everyone will want to travel, there will be quarantines, large crowded events might be managed differently or not occur and so on.

Compared with now, though, when we can't even legally meet our own family in the privacy of our own homes, though, it will be normal!

I've been looking at the same patronising status' on my face book.

"You all think things will go back to normal June and when they wont..were back into another lockdown"

Well firstly, no one expects this to go back to normal. They'll be always be restrictions. We may have spikes so tighter restrictions but not a full lockdown again.

The science shows the numbers are dropping despite variants. Studies have shown they stop transmission upto a high rate too.

Lab studies suggest Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines CAN protect against SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.351 and B.1.1.7. Despite reduction, neutralizing titer levels with B.1.351 remain above levels that are expected to be protective!

^This is from a scientist, but let's all listen to OP and the other fortune tellers and doom mongers.

@DuchessofHastings1

They'll be always be restrictions. We may have spikes so tighter restrictions

You’ve just said it yourself...

OP, one "friend on the front line" doesn't make your argument conclusive. My sister works as a nurse in the NHS and she doesn't share your pessimism at all - so what does that prove? She's right? Your friend is right? I'm right? You're right? It proves nothing.

I'm one of life's natural optimists but even setting that aside, things are so different now. We're heading in to warmer weather so more ventilation possible everywhere and more outdoor mixing and we have the vaccine.

But no one is forcing you to go anywhere so just stay at home. I'll be outdoors meeting friends and going on holiday, and I can't wait .

@OldScrappyAndHungry

OP, one "friend on the front line" doesn't make your argument conclusive. My sister works as a nurse in the NHS and she doesn't share your pessimism at all - so what does that prove? She's right? Your friend is right? I'm right? You're right? It proves nothing.

I'm one of life's natural optimists but even setting that aside, things are so different now. We're heading in to warmer weather so more ventilation possible everywhere and more outdoor mixing and we have the vaccine.

But no one is forcing you to go anywhere so just stay at home. I'll be outdoors meeting friends and going on holiday, and I can't wait .

@OldScrappyAndHungry

I’m not the one with the friend....

Ah apologies - argument still stands re pessimism though. We all have our own viewpoints as to whether this is a good idea and our own assessment of risk .

I’m not the one with the friend.... But you did quote it with a one word Gotcha!

Don’t mean to be a doom monger
You didn't try very hard.
Some people like to have hope and something to look forward to. Others don't. Obviously you're in the second camp, but what good does it do to crap all over the people in the first? Does it make you feel better? I doubt it. It doesn't make them feel better either. So why do it?

@InkyOctopus

I agree with you OP but feel like we can’t speak it out loud. I think the government wants to cheer people up but of course cases will rise so those targets won’t be met.

I think this “roadmap” may be realistic but with a much longer timescale, maybe a year-18 months? (and up and down in terms of further restrictions).

I understand the need for hope!! I guess I’m always pessimistic because I like to be prepared and hate being disappointed.

I agree. People hear what they want to hear. The message is "data not dates", but people hear only the dates! I am worried about variants too and suspect the timescale is very optimistic.

Having said that I have just texted my hairdresser to get booked in asap...hope springs eternal.

@gigity

I can handle the pessimism but it's the superiority of it that annoys me.

Yes. Even the scientists wouldn't rule out that new variables could occur, and in fact the plan specifically accounts for them.

But implying that the existence of those variables overwhelms existing data is tedious in the extreme.

(I took immense schadenfreude at a work colleague who smugly told me that no schools would return by September because her LA refunded all school bus payments by the end of March 2020. They and she had a hell of a time rearranging transport in June, and the government advice was in fact for schools to continue paying such suppliers as normal.)

As long as the UK borders are open with a shambles of a track and trace and flimsy quarantine requirements, there will always be Covid here circulating. It's not going to be over when our pathetic government use this soft approach and nicely request people don't do things. This could have been over months ago. Why haven't the army been called in to help people with shopping, medical care etc? We've all been left to fend for ourselves and thousands have died. It's disgusting really.

I’m expecting dates to end up being pushed back a bit but there is light at the end of the tunnel at last!

I think vaccines will have to be used to get around new variants and it’s here to stay. But yes, I think this is the start of us learning to live with covid

I think you’re right OP, Covid won’t be gone by June. But the public’s blind following of rules and restrictions mainly will be, everyone’s had enough. And so what if Covid not gone? It’s a virus we’ll have to live with for the rest of our lives, hiding away in our homes isn’t doing anyone any good

@bofski14 you realise the army is here, helping with the distribution of supplies etc? They’ve got more important things to be doing than getting your shopping for you love.

I can definitely see your point . I also think 21st June is a bit naive of Boris - who has form for this , I won’t be holding my breath for that . However , I’m choosing to be positive and accept that spring arriving , easing of some restrictions will make things a bit better . The vaccines are going to be tweaked like the flu ones in years to come
to help with the emerging variants . The way I seen the vaccine is if it stops people dying or hospitalised that’s good enough .

I think the vaccine will be included in the annual flu vaccine - if not this year then maybe next year. Or maybe it will be a double jab. More people will be careful to have it in time every year for at least a few years.

They will do the same as they do for the flu vaccine - try and predict the variants for the year. It's a hit and miss but the scientists get better at this every year. We will learn to live with it.
Vulnerable people will take more precautions - as they do with regular flu too. Some healthy people will still get seriously ill - but the % will drop sharply.

Well I've booked my hairdresser and a table in a pub garden with my friends for 12th April. If they get cancelled, they get cancelled. But if not, I'll be the one drinking a G&T with friends and no roots!!