Shops/pubs/indoor mixing 'not till cases under 1000 a day'

[bathsh3ba]

According to The Telegraph.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/16/covidlockdown-continue-cases-drop-1000-day/

First it was save lives.
Then it was prevent hospitalisations and protect the NHS.
Now it's all down to cases apparently.

Beginning to think the whole thing is pointless. OK so schools may partly open and some outdoor mixing but even that is sounding unsure.

I have never been so ashamed of living in this country- the appalling behaviour towards vulnerable groups

Whilst I agree with your sentiment, I very much doubt this is a specific behaviour of Great Britain, there will be people all over the world with the same disregard that we just don't hear about, doesn't mean it isn't happening

@everythingthelighttouches

And yes to the issue of mass testing without symptoms. hamstersarse also pointed this out earlier.

Surely they will publish those numbers separately?
We also have to consider surge testing which is effectively community/random PCR testing.

It doesn't look like they are currently, according to the dashboard.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

"Virus tests include PCR tests conducted in laboratories and lateral flow device tests"

I hope they will separate PCR vs LFT then.

For PCR, if you imagine no one has the virus anymore and there is a false positive rate of 0.05%, you’d have to be testing 2,000,000 per day to get 1000 positives.

so it is entirely possible to get below 1000 per day with PCR.

@AlecTrevelyan006

simple way to get under 1,000 positive cases per day is to stop testing everyone

Donald, is that you?

@CornishYarg

I hate to mention false positives, as they are regularly latched on to by Covid deniers, but aren't they going to be relevant here? We're generally testing around 500k+ people a day now, far more than we were in the summer when cases got below 1000. And we're now carrying out random testing e.g. healthcare workers, door-to-door testing.

This article from October discredited the dodgy argument that the majority of cases were false positives. However, it mentions a false positive rate of 0.8% for PCR tests. No idea how reliable that is but if it is correct then that would result in 0.8% of 500,000 = 4,000 false positives per day.
www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/54270373

The next article considers the false positive rate for lateral flow tests. The false negative rate is a far bigger concern for these tests, but the article suggests a false positive rate of 0.32%. 0.32% of 500,000 is still 1600 cases per day.

I feel this was dismissed. 1000 is essentially unachievable at the rate we're testing atm due to false positives.

@wanderings

simple way to get under 1,000 positive cases per day is to stop testing everyone I bet the government are going to do just that. They'll quietly ease off testing, or "lose" or redefine positive results, to make it look as if case numbers are coming down. After all, they did the opposite: they tested more and more and more, and then screamed "LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOK!!!!!! Cases are going up and up and up!!!!!" This hallowed government never falsifies data. And pigs can fly.

Haven't they just said they are going to test more? Yet again, they are saying they are putting things in our hands 'stay safe' etc but essentially by increasing testing they are skewing the data. I just want my ds8 back at school as I am reaching my limit of seeing him upset doing his school work alone with 2 working parents. He's already comparing himself to other children in his class that have parents at home helping saying he must be stupid. Breaks my heart.

And yes I do have elderly relatives and they feel the same. They feel upset that they have robbed these children of their lives when they have already had theirs

@HazeyJaneII

Amongst our age group -40s we are no longer following the social mixing rules -And presumably will you be sending your children to school when you can? Terrific... Yes..And I’m a teacher

Christ on a bike, I read things like this and wonder if I'm going to be able to send ds (medically vulnerable) back to school at all, before there is a vaccine suitable for children.

Aren't medically vulnerable children being vaccinated? I have a nephew that has already had his first jab for that reason.

The REACT study found levels of infection are being halved every 14.6 days. If the rate continues, the UK can expect to reach 1,000 cases a day by the second week of April.

Public Health England has a "high degree of confidence thatthe vaccineswill work against variants", including the Bristol variant of concern.

I love the saying Christ on a bike. No idea why but it tickles me

Thankyou @IloveJKRowling
Ds can stay home, I just would l9ve to see a way back for him, by at least trying to make schools safer - and it is so disheartening to read of teachers not giving a monkeys about social mixing.

@Alizzle
Aren't medically vulnerable children being vaccinated? I have a nephew that has already had his first jab for that reason
None that I know (that aren't over 16 and in residential care) - we have been told ds will have to wait for trials to be completed.

@Alizzle

And yes I do have elderly relatives and they feel the same. They feel upset that they have robbed these children of their lives when they have already had theirs

This is so funny, I imagine the poster striking a pose , head down , back of hand on forehead

But assuming the poster is serious ...

The young and the old have both had a year of thier lives disrupted

The young have not lost their lives although many older people have died well before they would have expected to , so have lost part of their lives

If as a young person you feel your life is now lost , you would have found many more things in life to trip you up.

( not saying it isn't hard , that people are not suffering , that inequality hasn't been exasperated)

The young have not lost their lives although many older people have died well before they would have expected to , so have lost part of their lives

You beat me to it!

Robbed of their lives! I sincerely hope people expressing these views on here aren’t projecting their catastrophic black and white thinking onto their children but sadly I suspect many are.

The damage done to our young people, particularly those akready disadvantaged in some way, is horrendous. In terms of health, education and employment prospects as well as mental well-being and socialisation it will take decades for many to recover, if they ever do.

If you cannot realise the long term impact of this on our young people both on a personal level and in terms of structural and societal issues go do some reading. Much like carbon fuels they’ll be cleaning up the mess for us.

@Pastanred

Indoor mixing happening for many now

Allowed or not

I’ve had 3 party invites just this week from people who would never have asked few months ago

Amongst our age group -40s we are no longer following the social mixing rules

If this is true and if you really are a teacher, I hope you have made your employers aware that you are happy to take such risks on behalf of the children / colleagues / families in your community.

I would be very unhappy if I knew that one of my teacher colleagues was making such choices and making things more risky for all of us, including the vulnerable children who are currently in school now, and - if I am honest - including me.

I accept the societal deal that I am in school, taking a risk, so that vulnerable and keyworker children can be there. I do not see that I should accept the same risk so my colleague can go to some parties!

I think the population is increasingly lockdown-fatigued, and like others have said once the weather improves I think compliance will drop even further.

I also think the focus on gross case numbers is a bit of a red herring now that the vaccine rollout is under way. We can have high cases of a disease with very little impact on hospitals (e.g. colds, flus, stomach bugs) because most people who contract it won't need treatment. Up until this point, looking at daily covid cases has been a useful predictor of how the strain on hospitals will rise and fall, but now the vulnerable groups are being vaccinated I think it will in future - hopefully the very near future! - be more useful to look at either cases within those groups or hospitalisation numbers and use that to inform the lockdown restrictions.

@bathsh3ba
We haven't had 1000 or less since 21st March 2020! That could take some doing! Which isn't a bad thing,just means expectations need tempering.

Think we did have freer than 1000 in August last year

@midgedude

Think we did have freer than 1000 in August last year

You are absolutely right! I just double checked and indeed we have had 57 days since last 16th March with less than 1000 cases a day. Of those days the average was just under 800 cases a day. BUT most of these lower dates, were weekends so I think that they may well have not all been remotely accurate as the additional cases would have meant that the rates would have been higher.... And only July had the entire month below 1000 a day averaging 645 cases a day.

And only July had the entire month below 1000 a day averaging 645 cases a day.

Coincidentally(?) before Rishi's "eat out to help spread covid" scheme throughout August, the month which saw infections start to take off again. I really do hope the Govt have learned lessons from opening up too much too quickly last Summer which meant they hadn't the faintest idea what actually caused the increase.

@Kazzyhoward

And only July had the entire month below 1000 a day averaging 645 cases a day.

Coincidentally(?) before Rishi's "eat out to help spread covid" scheme throughout August, the month which saw infections start to take off again. I really do hope the Govt have learned lessons from opening up too much too quickly last Summer which meant they hadn't the faintest idea what actually caused the increase.

Indeed. But you understand that didn't contribute to infections, it was only saving the economy!

[quote StarCat2020]@PrincessNutNuts
How is your Great Uncle doing today?[/quote]
They seem optimistic lovely. Thank you for asking.