Shops/pubs/indoor mixing 'not till cases under 1000 a day'

[bathsh3ba]

According to The Telegraph.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/16/covidlockdown-continue-cases-drop-1000-day/

First it was save lives.
Then it was prevent hospitalisations and protect the NHS.
Now it's all down to cases apparently.

Beginning to think the whole thing is pointless. OK so schools may partly open and some outdoor mixing but even that is sounding unsure.

Schools opening will definitely push rates up. According to data from December, 12-16 year olds were 7 times more likely to be the first person in their household to be infected and hence to infect everyone else. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948617/s0998-tfc-update-to-4-november-2020-paper-on-children-schools-transmission.pdf
I’ve copied the relevant section below:
This analysis shows that children and young people are more likely to bring the virus into the household than those aged 17+. They are also less likely to catch the virus within the household. This is consistent with previous analysis of household transmission (14 October).
• External exposure shows how likely someone is to be the first case in
their household. Young people (aged 2-16) are much more likely than those aged 17+ to be the first case in their household. In particular, those aged 12 to 16 are nearly 7 times as likely to be the first case in their household, compared to those 17+.
• Transmissibility shows how likely someone is to pass the virus on within the household, if they are the first positive case. The analysis shows that 2 – 16 year olds are more than twice as likely to pass on the virus within their household compared to people aged 17+

I don’t think they want zero covid - that’s not ever going to happen!
The government is criticised for opening things too early all the time. They probably think this will put an end to the endless cycle of of lifting restrictions and cases going back up. It’s still not a given that it will work though. I guess with the new variant which is more vaccine resistant, they really don’t want to give it a chance to spread.

Fuck this whole thing. It feels like every option is just miserable!

This is in all the papers

FFS I hope beyond hope this isn't true, but it looks as though it is.

Once schools re-open surely the cases will just go back up again and there won't be a time when they are below 1000 a day! The constant shifting of goalposts is intolerable. Why is it now about cases ffs.

@LucilleTheVampireBat

Once schools re-open surely the cases will just go back up again and there won't be a time when they are below 1000 a day! The constant shifting of goalposts is intolerable. Why is it now about cases ffs.

Because they are bent over and being fucked by the scientists who have no clue about the real world

They are not aiming for zero covid

They have it seems worked out the numbers at which they have a good chance of keeping on top of things, avoiding further lockdowns and keeping pressure off the nhs so it can recover and start on the backlog

It's achievable in the next few months

Sounds fantastic to me . Yes it's not now but I am not a toddler

It certainly seems that way RedcurrantPuff.

The Daily Mail have a different take on the "roadmap" - which is infinitely more positive and hopeful.

here

Of course its pointless
The goalposts will continue to shift
Convenient new variants will be found and restrictions will stay forever
Vaccinations will change nothing
I am so angry and can see no way forward now

@bathsh3ba

I was looking forward to getting my vaccine soon (group 6) but not sure I see the point now if vaccines aren't our way out...

I'm group 6, wont be having it. What's the point

The goalposts haven't shifted it's just some people only read part of the message not the whole page

Vaccination is the way out ... carry on reading.....as it makes it substantially easier to keep it under control , but keeping it under control has all ways been the plan

@midgedude

The goalposts haven't shifted it's just some people only read part of the message not the whole page

Vaccination is the way out ... carry on reading.....as it makes it substantially easier to keep it under control , but keeping it under control has all ways been the plan

No as with "finding " of new variants (convenient) they won't work as well so restrictions have to stay. Apparently

Inoculation could turn coronavirus into “the sniffles” even if it cannot stop variants causing illness, according to a vaccine expert.

Professor Andrew Pollard, head of the Oxford Vaccine Group, which conducts studies of new and improved vaccines, told MPs that he believed vaccines would have a “huge impact on transmission” of the variants that had been identified in Britain.

Although he accepted that the spread of new variants resistant to vaccines was “going to be the future”, he said that this might not matter if the jabs still stopped people needing hospital care.

(Doom muppets despair)

@midgedude

The goalposts haven't shifted it's just some people only read part of the message not the whole page

Vaccination is the way out ... carry on reading.....as it makes it substantially easier to keep it under control , but keeping it under control has all ways been the plan

Oh, I don't think so. You have people vaccinated twice, two negative tests, still forced to pay for expensive quarantines in hotels for 2 weeks. So much for that idea.

I think it’s probably impossible to get to 1000 cases a day because of how the false positive cases occur when prevalence is low in the general community.

Lower the prevalence - higher the false positive. Even a false positive of 1% would mean 1000 cases is literally impossible

I think more of us could could cope with restrictions for longer as long as there's some sort of timetable for those being reduced - however qualified that has to be. And a grown-up explanation of what criteria are being used, so that we all understand why they can/can't re-open something at a certain date. It's not having anything to look forward to - at all - which is the real killer.

Whats with all the nasty comments to frog on this thread?

Cases were down to below 1000 a day last July when restrictions were lifted the first time. They've now gone from 60k to 10k in a month, so by the time the return to school starts Mar 8th we'll be on track for fewer cases a month or so after that then they'll reopen non essential shops, then hospitality if cases stay low. Of course numbers need to stay down before pubs are reopened and the vaccination dsta needs to be consistent, it really isn't rocket science,

Some of you really need to try and calm down.

I feel like we are stuck. No way forward. April feels forever away.

Literally isn't Impossible to get below 1000 cases per day

We managed it last august ( probably July also) and that was without vaccines

And I have no problem with people having to be in quarantine at this stage if they are coming from areas with a vaccine resistant strain that makes thier vaccination status irrelevant

Over 3500 Amazon workers with negative covid tests contacted by trace police as their results were recorded as positive
Laughable

@midgedude

Literally isn't Impossible to get below 1000 cases per day

We managed it last august ( probably July also) and that was without vaccines

And I have no problem with people having to be in quarantine at this stage if they are coming from areas with a vaccine resistant strain that makes thier vaccination status irrelevant

Its impossible

Vaccine resistant strain?

Have I missed the memo about that?

I feel slightly better now because I got an email 'from Boris' asking me to rejoin the Conservative Party and I sent a reply back politely detailing why the answer was No Effing Way. 😬