“No evidence” schools spread Covid

[ThePenIsBlue]

This was on BBC news

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56072460

But the data shows the direct links, that a surge in infections DOES lead a couple of weeks later into hospitalisations and then a couple of weeks later into deaths

Yes but a surge in infection largely confined to younger people does not have the same effect

We know that many people died in care homes for example, but that was not largley because young children and young adults were visiting them. Yes a child might pass the virus onto mum, who works in a care home, but we know that children are less likely to catch the virus and children are less likely to pass the virus on if they do catch it.

A child is not mixing with the more at risk groups, and mostly neither are the childs parents. There is always risk but there is risk in walking into Tesco, that's why the most vulnerble stay away. Just as they stay away from schools and school children.

I agree with concerns about older children, they mix more and can be reckless, but I think primary age children should have always been in school

@noblegiraffe

Not sure your tiny village primary is a good representation of schools nationally, user.

It's obvious that if the infection rates are low in the community then it's safer to open schools. The issue is that when covid gets into schools, there's very little to stop it spreading within the school, and then leaking back out to the community.

Schools need better mitigation measures.

I don't think a school with 300 pupils is tiny - it's actually larger than the UK average of 281!

It's also not a single village - it draws in pupils from several villages, the southern reaches of a town (pop 20,000) and northern reaches of another town (pop 50,000), so pupils come from far and wide to it.

Our nearby town also has very few outbreaks in schools. My son's secondary school has had none at all, and that was in the middle of a city!

@Flaxmeadow

That reasoning doesn’t work for more deprived areas. The parents of the children in my class are young but over half are in multigenerational housing. They can not afford to live any other way.

[quote Useruseruserusee]@user1497207191

Isn’t the new variant everywhere now though?

Last week we had to close a bubble that had four children and one member of staff. All social distancing but two out of five are positive.[/quote]
Now now come on!

The teachers were probably going out to pubs, holidaying in South Africa or holding mad parties in underground warehouses.

I don't think a school with 300 pupils is tiny - it's actually larger than the UK average of 281!

Not if you only look at primaries, no. Secondaries are usually over 1000.

Yes but a surge in infection largely confined to younger people does not have the same effect

Indeed, I agree, but due to exponential growth, if you don't tackle that surge, it'll have spread too far and wide and causes exponential growth, so that by the time you've realised it IS leading to hospitalisations and deaths, it's too late to stop it without severe restrictions/lockdowns. It's exactly what happened last August/September when people were waiting to see whether the increased infections led to an increase in hospitalisations and deaths, and when it became apparent that indeed that was happening, it was out of control and needed the November lockdown.

Far better to be patient and cautious, and take some smaller steps to bring the infection rate down again, whilst you wait to see whether it leads to hospitalisations and deaths. If it doesn't, then fair enough, relax the restrictions.

My son's secondary school has had none at all, and that was in the middle of a city!

I would expect that to be a vanishingly rare scenario.

A child is not mixing with the more at risk groups, and mostly neither are the childs parents. There is always risk but there is risk in walking into Tesco, that's why the most vulnerble stay away. Just as they stay away from schools and school children.

If the child is living in a multi-generational home, the "vulnerable" in that same home can't stay away can they? It's very different from Tesco!

@noblegiraffe

I don't think a school with 300 pupils is tiny - it's actually larger than the UK average of 281!

Not if you only look at primaries, no. Secondaries are usually over 1000.

We were talking about primaries!

Exactly! And it is the poorer communities more likely to be in multigenerational, overcrowded housing.

We had very few cases in the secondaries round here. Medium town in the SE. Handful at most. No isolation periods for either of my boys. Now I know according to @noblegiraffe that means they were all asymptomatic and it proves nothing.

multigenerational

The vast majority of people in the UK do not live in multigenerational homes. Any who did would by now have already taken measures to protect their most vulnerble.

We had very few cases in the secondaries round here. Medium town in the SE

And yet when we look at the school attendance data for the SE just before Christmas we can see that it was massively affected by the new variant.

Which just goes to show that individual anecdote isn't very helpful.

@Delatron

I teach in a primary school with over 600 pupils in London. No cases until mid December, following all risk assessment guidance. New variant arrived and in one week alone, the week before the holidays, we had 12 children and 17 staff positive. I’m sure there were more children as some parents told us their children had symptoms but they didn’t want to test them.

My school example doesn’t prove anything either, government policy needs to come from an overview.

Also, parents would not be aware of all the cases, as if the bubble was already closed they weren’t informed of further positives.

@Flaxmeadow
What measures can a family surviving on zero hour contracts during a pandemic take to protect their vulnerable?

I know of a family where parents, 2 children and grandparents are living in a one bedroom flat. What can they do? Make the grandparents homeless?

Of course, this problem will hopefully get smaller as the vaccination programme continues. But I hope you recognise that the position of being able to protect the vulnerable in your family comes from privilege.

I guess we were lucky as we are SE but quite a way from Kent so the variant didn’t seem to impact us.

Grandparents vaccinations should be kicking in soon so that will protect the multi generational households.
So that’s one argument gone...

From the co-author of the study:
"an irresponsible headline and it is categorically NOT what we said."

@Delatron

Grandparents vaccinations should be kicking in soon so that will protect the multi generational households. So that’s one argument gone...

Oh dear god.

My parents are in their late 50’s and early 60’s.
It’ll be a while before their vaccinations kick in...not least because they haven’t had them yet.
They provide essential wrap around care for my brother’s kids.

@Delatron

Grandparents vaccinations should be kicking in soon so that will protect the multi generational households. So that’s one argument gone...

By 8th March?

He also says
"This is a much better summary of what we've been trying to say with this work!"
inews.co.uk/news/education/schools-not-driving-spread-covid-19-study-finds-873192

What measures can a family surviving on zero hour contracts during a pandemic take to protect their vulnerable?

All kinds of measures. It depends on the circumstances

I know of a family where parents, 2 children and grandparents are living in a one bedroom flat. What can they do? Make the grandparents homeless?

But this is an extremely unusual example.

BTW I live in a very high deprivation area in the north of England, I've lost my job (retail) and have also at times been on zch. I do understand poverty but the vast majority of people, even in high deprivation areas, do not live in multigenerational households

...and in the those areas of high deprivation, it is even more imperative that children are back in school.

@noblegiraffe depends when they had them doesn’t it! Many had them in Jan. It will make an impact whether you want to admit it or not. It doesn’t fit your ‘keep the schools shut’ narrative does it?

We racing through the vaccinations, everyone knows this.

It doesn’t fit your ‘keep the schools shut’ narrative does it?

What on earth are you on about? Why are you making stuff up?