“No evidence” schools spread Covid

[ThePenIsBlue]

This was on BBC news

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56072460

Language is everything with this. It should be "there is an absence of evidence". They need more research and details of transmission and that takes time.

Oh and none of the teachers were ill either! They should submit our school to science for testing!

Or maybe the one asymptomatic child didn’t spread it...

John has Covid, but doesn’t know it.

Rule 1 it is impossible for Mary to catch Covid from John, if she is sat next to him in a lesson.
But, if John and Mary walk home together, Mary is at risk.

Rule 2 John can make sure he doesn’t spread Covid to Mary, by wearing a mask in the corridors. When John is sat next to Mary in a lesson, it is safe for John to remove his mask.

Rule 3 John can breathe on his teachers as much as he pleases. John cannot spread Covid to teachers.
John however is likely to spread Covid to his family, so should not mix with other relatives outside the home.

I could go on, but I hate typing with my phone...

pinkhappy yes there may be some schools that were closed but primary schools as a category of establishments have never been closed.

It's certainly true that not all primary schools were shut to everyone. But for many people they have been shut for a long time.

yes you’re right, it could have spread all round the bubble, all asymptomatically and then none of the parents or siblings showed symptoms either so a whole a school of asymptomatic cases..

Or it could have spread to some others asymptomatically and you didn't know.

We know that the infection rate in secondary kids from random sampling that picked up asymptomatic infections showed that case numbers in children from symptomatic testing were a very unreliable measure of actual cases.

It's quite likely that closing primary schools for a year was not based on scientific evidence but fear

Schools have not been closed for a year. Even if you take out the argument that most schools have never actually closed it's not been a year.

And quite clearly there have been many cases in primary schools.
My own school had plenty of cases despite following the guidelines.

The primary school thing is also not helped by the fact that many children have Covid with few symptoms, but can still pass it on.

And that if they have symptoms they're quite usually not the big 3, so aren't being tested as routinely or as regularly. So many go undetected.

So even if infections went up slightly in September, this does not mean deaths and hospitalizations did in relation to that. That's what's important.

Look at the graph, particularly the red line which represents secondary school children. Have you forgotten about exponential growth?

The primary school thing is also not helped by the fact that many children have Covid with few symptoms, but can still pass it on.

But they are far less likely to pass it on ecen if they do have it and far less likely to pass it on to an elderly person.

Primary school childrens parents are generally young and also, like anyone else, would be avoiding seeing grandaprents or older populations most at risk.

2-16 year olds are more than twice as likely to pass covid on to someone within their household than aged 17+.

Look at the graph, particularly the red line which represents secondary school children. Have you forgotten about exponential growth?

But my point is, infection rates are not the same as hospitalizations and deaths. Which is what is important.

Young children and their, relatively young, parents are less likely to cause a steep rise in deaths because they, like anyone else, avoid elderly people.

In October the death rate was still comparatively low. It was the new variant and Christmas that caused the steep climbs in deaths

But my point is, infection rates are not the same as hospitalizations and deaths. Which is what is important.

Well no, but you don't have hospitalisations and deaths with no infections. Infections come from somewhere. And a massive pool of unmitigated infection spread will leak.

Ludicrous to suggest that children and parents exist in a vacuum separate from the elderly.

@Flaxmeadow

The primary school thing is also not helped by the fact that many children have Covid with few symptoms, but can still pass it on.

But they are far less likely to pass it on ecen if they do have it and far less likely to pass it on to an elderly person.

Primary school childrens parents are generally young and also, like anyone else, would be avoiding seeing grandaprents or older populations most at risk.

Where there is multi-generational living, the primary school children and their parents inevitably mix with grandparents and older populations - how can it not happen when they're living together, sharing kitchens, bathrooms, living rooms, etc? This could well be a major reason why covid has been such a problem in BAME communities, many of whom tend to look after their elderly in their homes rather than push them into care homes.

I believe this to be honest. My DC secondary school has had in total something like 2-3 confirmed cases in the whole school since September. This is in an area where was on of the highest rates in the country. School does have decent safety measures in place though.

But my point is, infection rates are not the same as hospitalizations and deaths. Which is what is important.

But the data shows the direct links, that a surge in infections DOES lead a couple of weeks later into hospitalisations and then a couple of weeks later into deaths.

People were saying that rising infection rates didn't matter last Summer - people were saying it was just because more people were being tested. It's one of the reasons why the rapid increase in the Autumn caught the country/govt off guard. People were looking at death rates and weren't seeing a rise in August. Just a few weeks later, the death rates started to rise, by which time, exponential growth had kicked!

You seem to have forgotten this, about the new variant, Flax

"Mass testing will be rolled out to secondary school children in the worst-affected areas of London, Kent and Essex, the health secretary has said.
Matt Hancock said "by far" the fastest rise in coronavirus infection rates in these areas was in 11 to 18-year-olds.
This age group in these areas should be tested regardless of symptoms, he said.
"We need to do everything to stop the spread in school-age children now," Mr Hancock said, adding that more details will be set out on Friday."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55265098

2-16 year olds are more than twice as likely to pass covid on to someone within their household than aged 17+.

But even if that was true, which I'm not sure about, they are all relatively young and so less at risk of hospitalisation and death. Unless Grandparents and Grt Grandparents live in the same household of course, but that would be unusual.

@user1497207191

But my point is, infection rates are not the same as hospitalizations and deaths. Which is what is important.

But the data shows the direct links, that a surge in infections DOES lead a couple of weeks later into hospitalisations and then a couple of weeks later into deaths.

People were saying that rising infection rates didn't matter last Summer - people were saying it was just because more people were being tested. It's one of the reasons why the rapid increase in the Autumn caught the country/govt off guard. People were looking at death rates and weren't seeing a rise in August. Just a few weeks later, the death rates started to rise, by which time, exponential growth had kicked!

This is true of the situation we were in last year, that of course case rises = more hospitalisations/deaths. But there wasn’t a vaccine last year so we have no data to go by that would show what effect the vaccination program will have this time.

For clarity - I’m not suggesting the vaccine will fix everything. Just that it is a variable that has only just come in to play so new data will be needed to show this.

In the November lockdown where I teach (east London), cases rose all the way through. Of course we now know this was due to the new variant.

I teach in an ethnically diverse, deprived area. The arguments about primary parents being young hold no water as many are in multigenerational, crammed housing. Others are on zero hour contracts and the only childcare they could afford is free grandparent care.

@worried3012

I believe this to be honest. My DC secondary school has had in total something like 2-3 confirmed cases in the whole school since September. This is in an area where was on of the highest rates in the country. School does have decent safety measures in place though.

Our village primary *(~300 pupils) still hasn't had a single case, not amongst pupils, nor staff. That's nearly a year now.

At the end of the day, if it's not out of control in the wider community, and the school takes at least some precautions (staggered start/finish times), etc., then there's no reason to think covid will rampage through the school.

The more it's circulating in the community, then obviously the more risk of it circulating within the school. If loads of parents have it, then lots of kids will have it, and yes, some will spread it around the school. Schools don't exist in a vacuum. It's ridiculous to think that parents and others in the wider community can ignore restrictions etc meaning covid is circulating, and that somehow the school can work it's magic to prevent transmission on its' premises.

But even if that was true, which I'm not sure about

Why would that be?

@DBML 👏🏼 Best explanation ever of why the ‘schools are Covid safe’ message is bullshit.

To be honest, I don’t even know if headlines like this are about having all children back in school. I think they’re about justifying not putting an extra penny into schools for any kind of cleaning or mitigation measures.

@Useruseruserusee

In the November lockdown where I teach (east London), cases rose all the way through. Of course we now know this was due to the new variant.

I teach in an ethnically diverse, deprived area. The arguments about primary parents being young hold no water as many are in multigenerational, crammed housing. Others are on zero hour contracts and the only childcare they could afford is free grandparent care.

But that's London with the new variant. The graphs show that in virtually all other areas, the infection rates fell quite quickly, which does tend to suggest that schools aren't the infection spreading factories that people are being led to believe.

Not sure your tiny village primary is a good representation of schools nationally, user.

It's obvious that if the infection rates are low in the community then it's safer to open schools. The issue is that when covid gets into schools, there's very little to stop it spreading within the school, and then leaking back out to the community.

Schools need better mitigation measures.

This is true of the situation we were in last year, that of course case rises = more hospitalisations/deaths. But there wasn’t a vaccine last year so we have no data to go by that would show what effect the vaccination program will have this time. For clarity - I’m not suggesting the vaccine will fix everything. Just that it is a variable that has only just come in to play so new data will be needed to show this.

All the more reason to be cautious and not do the same "gung ho" approach of last Summer when far too much was opened too quickly.

I'd quite like to see schools opened first, without other relaxations for a month or so, just to see how the infection rates change. If say pubs/restaurants are allowed to open over Easter, and infection rates start to rise, we'll never know whether it was because of schools or because of hospitality. Like last Summer, so many things re-opened so quickly, one after another, so we didn't know which caused the rise in infections that started in August.

If rates start to rise again, we need to know what drove it, so we can target the restrictions/closures rather than having yet another complete lock down.

@user1497207191

Isn’t the new variant everywhere now though?

Last week we had to close a bubble that had four children and one member of staff. All social distancing but two out of five are positive.