“No evidence” schools spread Covid

[ThePenIsBlue]

This was on BBC news

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56072460

Seriously. Do they think we are all stupid?

@Piggywaspushed

It doesn't really matter whether school cases come in from the community or whether schools spread it : this is a common argument. Either way if cases rise, education is impacted and disrupted. This was really clear when the Kent variant struck.

Some of the media report this as if cases in teachers somehow reduced or were really low in November : even from the press release we can see that this is not what is said.

And, yes, any teacher will tell you that the DfE fiddled with ways in which absence was being recorded and reported and weren't gathering detailed stats of absent teachers at all in any kind of methodical fashion, so I really do want to seee the methodologies of this study.

Well said.

When high in community it comes into schools.

And when I'm there it's a huge vector for transmission as admitted by government.

It's a mass gathering and "covid loves a crowd".

A school next to mine had an adult and child case in same day 2 weeks ago. Within 5 days ALL in that class has tested positive and 6 days later a child who uses same toilet also tested positive followed by 2 staff in the class. (There's no evidence it was from shared bathroom and this school have excellent cleaning including a fog machine but they share a corridor to this bathroom so it's assumed some cross contamination occurred somewhere somehow)

Let me guess. Schools are about to open on 8 March so this is released now. So predictable.

Absolutely

Interesting timing. I guess they need to start using the phrase "Schools are safe" again.

@Xerochrysum

Seriously. Do they think we are all stupid?

Yes, yes they do. And unfortunately a large number of people fall for it so probably are.

Very transparent! No evidence doesn’t mean evidence that schools are not responsible for the spread! It’s more like the Scottish court verdict of ‘not proven’ rather than the English verdict of ‘not guilty’.

hedgehogger it is the government that is enforcing the 'don't report your absences; we are far too busy to collate them' thing!

It is all down to reporting to LAs and then onwards ... bureaucracy at its finest.

This is the press release

warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/pressreleases/new_research_finds_no_evidence_that_schools_are_playing_a_significant_role_in_driving_spread_of_the_covid-19_virus_in_the_community1

I feel much better about the propaganda when it supports MY views

Well... 10/10 for honesty...

I could still but he must have known. TBH, despite what people are saying it was a v small segment of the edition so doesn't seem worth it. But the lack of usual rigour was surprising.

Of course there is a f*cking absence of evidence. They never close schools unless they are closing everything else at the same time. And schools did not remain open for all, anyway, as many children were on a constant merry go round of being sent home to isolate every few weeks.

Obviously it can spread in schools, because over 50% of the staff testing positive for covid in the primary school I work in in the build up to Christmas is way over the rate in the community for the area (or any area in the UK). Family testing as part of the national testing programme also revealed that children in the school had covid before their parents got covid. So, it’s more an absence of evidence on a national level overall, not an absence of any evidence - meaning, imvho, we don’t appear to have learnt as much as we could or should have about it to date.

No evidence apart from the curve going upwards shortly after the September term starting and going downwards during this term’s school closures? 50+ cases at our school, major outbreaks!

We are not track and traced at school. I worked closely in a room with 4 adults who all had Covid- I was not informed at any point, and neither were parents of children who were taught by these adults.

Rates in children were higher than for any other section of the community - really hard to see how that wasn' t from in-school transmission.

I sometimes wonder whether SAGE have ever done any case studies. I'd like to think the SpiB people have gathered some qualitative data , but I haven't really seen evidence of any. There is definitely a bias towards numbers : quicker, easier to gather and report, seen as 'reliable' : but talking to teachers and schools about their experiences does seem to be a hole in their knowledge. I think they might be surprised to hear about the conditions in schools and often wonder how much they know about absence reporting and track and trace in schools.

@Kitcat122

Interesting timing. I guess they need to start using the phrase "Schools are safe" again.

Absolutely! Back to whenever Boris was asked a question about schools, he would say ‘schools are safe’ as the very first thing, before even considering the question (and often never actually answered the question itself but would still say ‘schools are safe’ another 3 or 4 times, just for good measure.)

He’s going to do it again on the 22nd, you mark my words!

Schools and Covid has been a mess the whole way through this pandemic. With no track and trace when we have had cases (before lockdown and strict bubbles) when a member of staff tested positive we were told isolate of you really think you need to!!! With a underlying tone. With staff absences this put us in a difficult situation. When you book a test you have to put where you work or the school for children surely there must be data!

I find schools are safer than ever at the moment. They also tend to be a lot safer when there aren't 2500 people squashed into space meant for about 1500.

Fuck it , send them all back. But don't anyone complain that pubs etc can't open or that we can't see our mates indoors or that kids can't see their mates at the weekend (althoughwe know they all will). Honestly, I know it makes me sound pathetic, but that's the bit I really resent: spending hours every day with up to 150 people, not sd and no idea what their hygiene practices are or home lives, but I could get fined for sitting with a few adults for a few hours. '"Oh, but it's different in school because it's cv secure. " No, even with the most dedicated slt in the world and amazing cleaning staff, it's not.

Irresponsible reporting. Gathering data on schools has been shockingly lax all the way through, and the message has always been schools are safe - Jenny Harries kept on saying it like an automaton. Stats show the case numbers in children and young people were the highest in the nation before Christmas, but this is somehow passed over because they obviously caught it at home, not school

It's insulting.

One of my children had six isolations between Sept and Dec and a case of Covid because cases were rife at his secondary - 20% of the class.

My other child had three SIs and his secondary had to close early.

No point even reading for me.
If schools made no difference
1 we wouldnt have had a huge xmas spike.
2 the increase in sept 4d after schools going back.
3 huge increase after unis. Those kids some are days older than school kids
4 schools wouldnt contribute 0.4 to r
5 in nov we closed everything else droppinv r below 1. We just cant open above 1 but gov will still open pubs and restaurants and kids clubs etc which then goes back into school
6 kids had rates of 1000sper 100k

Agree OP, this is being talked about in the medical profession abroad. I have relatives who work as medical professionals in Europe and the US, evidence is emerging that at least primary schools are not part of the problem.

It's to do with how children carry the virus if they even have it. It's quite likely that closing primary schools for a year was not based on scientific evidence but fear. It could turn out to be quite the public health scandal.

@Wherediditgo

This is a good example of scientific language being misunderstood by a journalist IMO. The important phrase being:

Co-researcher Dr Mike Tildesley said: "We are not saying there is no risk.
"It's an absence of evidence."

When they say there is ‘no evidence’ it means literally that. Not that it isn’t true.

You see this all the time with articles about vaccines. ‘Not enough evidence’ that they protect against variants, for example, has quickly turned in to ‘the AZ vaccine is completely useless’

Irresponsible reporting IMO.

Yes, it's like when they were saying there 'wasn't evidence' to suggest that being infected with Covid gave you immunity, people interpreted that as 'OMG being infected with Covid doesn't give you immunity'!

As far as schools, well, we will get a pretty good idea from 8th March onwards. Weeks and weeks of lockdown, coming out of winter, numbers currently plummeting, only variable changing (as far as we know at the moment) schools returning - it should give us an idea!

Secondary schools are a different kettle of fish as you have near adults gathering. Under 11s apparently are not part of the infection problem.

Of course there have been infections in primary schools but on a population level and as a public health issue it is apparently not a big concern.