No flu season anywhere in the world this year ...

[Dustyboots]

Christina Pagel (alternative SAGE) has just said this on Newsnight. She says there's been no flu season anywhere in the world this year because of Covid restrictions etc

Does anyone else know whether this is the case?

She was suggesting that if we kept restrictions up we could eliminate Covid and in the future eliminate most things, therefore reducing deaths forever!

I think she's a bit potty.

Although it's possible social distancing suppressed flu, I'd still expect to see at least lower-level flu outbreaks in countries with less social distancing. I'd expect outbreaks in schools and hospitals too. I wouldn't expect it to go away completely.

I think there's something else going on (I don't know what).

@Jgdgjbdssvuuuuu

Got a new name didn’t it? COVID-19. Even my 9 year old knows that.

No. Completely different virus.

a) Massive increase in flu vaccinations this year.

b) Covid-19 has killed everyone that would get flu before they got it.

I know a few things. I don't know if they are definitive:

1. Schools and workplaces have been closed for long periods, especially in flu season. I have had flu a few times, and each time I was exposed to it at work, or while traveling. My Dad got flu at a funeral for a friend in early 2013. It eventually killed both my parents.

1. Flu, as I understand it, spreads more on surfaces than Covid. We have been cleaning surfaces much more. Hand washing has been taken seriously.

1. There have been very strong campaigns for flu vaccination. More have taken them. Perhaps this was a good year in identifying the dominant strains.

1. Presenteeism has decreased. Stay home when sick has been an accepted message, unlike before, when drag yourself to work was expected.

Simply put, flu spreads differently. Our efforts have stopped it.

Norovirus and rotavirus are also very much below the 5 year average

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957916/Norovirus_bulletin_2020-21_week-05_v5.pdf

Higher flu vaccination rates and more options for WFH when you have a cold (and wearing a mask if you have a cold and need to leave the house to buy your Lemsip) is one thing. Oh, and washing your hands when you come in from the house, and flushing the toilet with the lid down. Oh, and perspex screens at the post office et al. That's all fine.

I think there will be zero compliance with most other measures on non-pandemic years.

there also has to be a degree if hyper awareness of the smallest symptom. I know I personally am very aware and the first sign of a sniffle or a cold i'm noticing it and being wary and staying away from people even more than usual just in case it develops into anything, where as normally i'd just go about my life not even thinking about it. that way most things are not spreading as they would before.

For those of you that think flu is testing positive for COVID, we use 4 in 1 tests that also detect flu. There's been zero flu cases in England for weeks.

There's some thinking that the Covid virus interacts somehow and prevents flu. Even in the US where people aren't following precautions there's a 98% drop in flu cases.

Yes it was in the news a couple of weeks ago that flu was virtually non existent this year. Thank God! The NHS wouldn’t have coped. I have family around the world and they say it’s been reported there too.

It's a completely different virus. That’s your opinion

Actually no, it's the opinion of many very clever people all around the world.

Do you realise how ignorant you sound?

Flu will come back Big

@endlesscraziness

For those of you that think flu is testing positive for COVID, we use 4 in 1 tests that also detect flu. There's been zero flu cases in England for weeks.

There's some thinking that the Covid virus interacts somehow and prevents flu. Even in the US where people aren't following precautions there's a 98% drop in flu cases.

I have relatives in several US states. Even in places that are not taking Covid very seriously, there are still far more people working from home and increased hygiene on hand washing and cleaning surfaces than ever before. Also some of these are in warm regions eg Florida, Texas that don’t normally have as bad of a flu season anyway.

There will be very few places in the world that have continued as normal with no behavior changes since Covid has hit.

@Jgdgjbdssvuuuuu

“It's a completely different virus”

That’s your opinion

Oh dear. No, it's not an opinion, it's actual fact. Much like if I told you the earth was round and the sun is hot, it wouldn't just be my opinion, it would be fact.

I’m in Australia and we basically didn’t have a flu season last year due to social distancing measures and an increased uptake of flu vaccinations. I have a friend who works in aged care and she said their bed turnover was super low because nobody was dying from the flu.

So we’ve all been a bunch of manky sods because before we didn’t wash our hands or surfaces enough.

Flu is still there as covid will be, it isn’t gone it’s waiting so to speak.

To the scientists, Question how come they change the flu jab every year with a variation as flu changes all the time it’s a virus after all but say the new variation of covid the jab can stay the same and work. There is now three mutation/variation. Surely we need a new vaccine or variation of.

I live in a country rather relaxed about COVID (it hasn’t hit all that badly possible due to a young, healthy population) and we aren’t having flu either. It does seem possible that COVID is out-competing the flu, doesn’t it?

To the scientists, Question how come they change the flu jab every year with a variation as flu changes all the time it’s a virus after all but say the new variation of covid the jab can stay the same and work. There is now three mutation/variation. Surely we need a new vaccine or variation of.

Flu viruses mutate a lot more than Coronaviruses do. However there are a lot more than three variants in COV-SARS-2, (by the way, a 'variant' doesn't necessarily have one different mutation, it may have several, actually it will have many if you look back at the original DNA sequence compared to the variants circulating now).

It all depends where in the virus's genetic sequence the mutations are, whether they are in an important part of it, or not so much. The spike protein is very important as it's how COV-SARS-2 binds to our cells, so mutations in that may alter the ability of the virus to bind which may then affect how readily the mutated virus can bind to cells. This is what's happened with the so-called 'Kent' variant (B 1.1.7), and this makes it more transmissible. Remember there will be hundreds of mutations that do not favour the virus and will weaken it, we don't hear much about those, and they are not favoured in an evolutionary sense.

If mutations occur in an important part of the virus targeted by the vaccine (i.e. the spike protein) then it may be that the vaccine will become less effective. and over time it could be necessary to create a new version of the vaccine to adjust for this.

@Jgdgjbdssvuuuuu

“It's a completely different virus”

That’s your opinion

No that's science not an opinion!

@Dullardmullard

So we’ve all been a bunch of manky sods because before we didn’t wash our hands or surfaces enough.

Flu is still there as covid will be, it isn’t gone it’s waiting so to speak.

To the scientists, Question how come they change the flu jab every year with a variation as flu changes all the time it’s a virus after all but say the new variation of covid the jab can stay the same and work. There is now three mutation/variation. Surely we need a new vaccine or variation of.

*CrunchyCarrot has answered most of your question, so just wanted to add vaccine labs are working on adaptations to vaccines to deal with mutations.

Sometimes I wonder how society functions

@CrunchyCarrot

To the scientists, Question how come they change the flu jab every year with a variation as flu changes all the time it’s a virus after all but say the new variation of covid the jab can stay the same and work. There is now three mutation/variation. Surely we need a new vaccine or variation of.

Flu viruses mutate a lot more than Coronaviruses do. However there are a lot more than three variants in COV-SARS-2, (by the way, a 'variant' doesn't necessarily have one different mutation, it may have several, actually it will have many if you look back at the original DNA sequence compared to the variants circulating now).

It all depends where in the virus's genetic sequence the mutations are, whether they are in an important part of it, or not so much. The spike protein is very important as it's how COV-SARS-2 binds to our cells, so mutations in that may alter the ability of the virus to bind which may then affect how readily the mutated virus can bind to cells. This is what's happened with the so-called 'Kent' variant (B 1.1.7), and this makes it more transmissible. Remember there will be hundreds of mutations that do not favour the virus and will weaken it, we don't hear much about those, and they are not favoured in an evolutionary sense.

If mutations occur in an important part of the virus targeted by the vaccine (i.e. the spike protein) then it may be that the vaccine will become less effective. and over time it could be necessary to create a new version of the vaccine to adjust for this.

I’m not a scientist hence the question and I think I knew in my mind there would be more mutations of covid just like flu but only three have been mentioned in the news.

Also good to know that variations are being done for the vaccines, but another question (I have many) do you think the vaccine has been brought out to early as the side effects are relatively unknown well some are as for one pregnant ladies can’t have it but can have the flu vaccine?

Plus the vaccine isn’t a cure but a preventative as in you can’t pass it on once inoculated is that right?

Flu is still there and once we have school and work open it’ll be back but I feel in a milder form because of the flu vaccine being given worldwide and more folks having it this year.

“It's a completely different virus”

That’s your opinion

This is so incredibly insulting to those who have studied for years and perhaps also worked for years in molecular biology/virology/immunology etc. Yes it's not easy to grasp (that's why all that study is needed!) but you really have to start trusting that people who have studied these things actually know what they're talking about. SARS-COV-2 has been genetically sequenced. It's not an opinion!

I read a few weeks ago flu had dropped to almost negotiable this year.

But not that it could be eliminated but more it'll be harder to track the changes and harder to work out this years flu jab.

So whether it's a good thing or not remains to be seen

do you think the vaccine has been brought out to early as the side effects are relatively unknown well some are as for one pregnant ladies can’t have it but can have the flu vaccine?

That's a hot potato of a question! I think the pandemic situation put immense pressure on researchers (who don't forget already had done a lot of work in the area of both mRNA and adenovirus vaccines) to get vaccines developed really quickly. It was possible to speed up parts of this (mainly the red tape and funding areas, so a lot of 'dead time' was cut out and work was able to proceed really quickly). Brought out too early? I don't think so, imagine right now if we were still waiting! There will doubtless be side effects discovered as the vaccines are rolled out, I think this is unavoidable, I hope none are too severe, but it's inevitable some will occur since we've had to get the vaccination program going as quickly as possible. The alternative is far more deaths whilst we waited for longer trials to be done.

I think we rightly have to be very cautious re pregnancy.

Plus the vaccine isn’t a cure but a preventative as in you can’t pass it on once inoculated is that right?

No vaccine is a 'cure'. You'll still 'catch' the virus if you encounter it. The difference is that once you've had the vaccine you will (hopefully!) have antibodies that will go into action and stop the virus replicating. You won't even know that's going on. The jury is still out on whether transmission to another person can occur, but there are indications that it will be greatly reduced - the Israelis are the furthest ahead with vaccinating their population so they're the ones to watch for more data on this.

Flu is still there and once we have school and work open it’ll be back but I feel in a milder form because of the flu vaccine being given worldwide and more folks having it this year.

We should never take our eyes off flu, it's quite capable of having its own epidemic. Govts were (supposedly) preparing for a serious outbreak (perhaps via Avian flu tranferring to humans) and this can still happen.