A lot fewer babies being born in almost every country

[Kokeshi123]

For all the jokes about couples getting busy on lockdown and creating a baby boom, the precise opposite appears to have happened in (as far as we can tell) all developed countries, and most middle income countries as well.

As the figures for births over Dec 2020 to Feb 2021 come in, they nearly always show a lot fewer babies being conceived since last spring.

It's not clear what is going to happen in the years ahead. Will the number of conceptions bounce back as people go ahead with pregnancies that they've delayed? Or will the return of restaurants and travel cause people to put the baby plans on the back burner for yet another year as they seek to catch up with the things they've missed out on? Or will continued uncertainty about the future make people less eager to have children?

There are certainly some interesting consequences we will need to look out for. Growing families tend to stimulate consumption, so we are about to see rather less of that. And if the 2020-2021 cohort turns out to be an unusually small one, that may have some interesting consequences right into the future (less competition for university entrance, graduate jobs etc.....) Long-term, obviously there are concerns about future dependency ratios, supporting pension systems and the like.

The surprising thing is that countries which handled the pandemic "well" like Taiwan and Australia seem to have seen similar declines in births compared with the countries that have done a poor job. Perhaps the decline in births is less to do with lockdown misery and more to do with a general sense of pessimism/uncertainty.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/articles/provisionalbirthsinenglandandwales/latest (UK) also www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/07/britain-faces-baby-bust-covid-forces-birth-rate-record-low/

thebull.com.au/aussie-population-growth-hits-8%C2%BD-year-low-most-jobs-added-in-accommodation-food-services/ (Australia)

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Society/Japan-s-pandemic-baby-bust-seen-pushing-births-below-800-000 (Japan)

www.forbes.com/sites/alicebroster/2021/02/03/coronavirus-hasnt-lead-to-the-baby-boom-that-was-anticipated-according-to-a-new-study/?sh=58bb1d954b79 (United States)

edition.cnn.com/2021/02/09/asia/china-population-births-intl-hnk/index.html (China)

www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/france-births-covid-lockdown/2021/02/10/285385ae-656c-11eb-bab8-707f8769d785_story.html (France)

I think the pandemic has been the icing on the economic catastrophe cake.

Child bearing age is about 30? Where I live, (NW) none of my group of friends (doctors, engineers, accountants) can afford a ‘middle class’ lifestyle with kids. House prices are insane so we’re all in (admittedly nice) flats or small terraces.

Throw in Covid to the uncertainty and it makes kids even more out of grasp if you want a ‘nice’ lifestyle. People are prioritising travel and experiences

We put it off last year... I’m so on the fence about it this year. I’m 30, stable job so we can afford it, DH is keen. Most of my close friends have children, but the youngest is four, so they’re over the baby stage. A bit of me is so broody and ready, and a bit of me feels like the economy needs time to recover, we could do with moving house for a bit more room, I miss travelling and going out...

I’m quite private; so I almost wish I’d had the baby in lockdown... I have a few looser friends who did that. I know some people really struggled without the support, but I’m quite independent and don’t have family, so I think not having people desperate to come over and things would have made it nicer for me!

I think the pandemic has been the icing on the economic catastrophe cake.

Yes, I definitely agree. Fertility rates were generally declining almost everywhere even before the pandemic. COVID seems to have accelerated a trend that was already manifest.

Im in Denmark and work at the jobcenter. I have never closed as many cases to ML as I have the last month.

Population decline is one of the major issues that the world was going to face in the coming decades anyway - it's likely that covid will hasten a decline that was already happening.

I've had my children but I can imagine that if I was planning children or I had one and was considering a second, the covid situation would make me seriously think twice - I would have to consider how wise it is to bring a child into a world that places zero value on them, their education, their ability to have social contact and stimulation and their future and is willing to make them suffer and pay a massive price for the inability of previous generations to plan and prepare. At a very low point during lockdown I said to my husband that if I'd known this was how my children would be treated, I wouldn't have had them. Who knows if that's true, but it gives you an idea of how let down I felt and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

I think people who already have children and were considering more will be most affected - the idea of having to homeschool future children having suffered the trauma of months of it would put anyone off IMO.

Of course a massive recession, huge unemployment and high levels of poverty won't help the whole situation.

I think now there are concerns about overpopulation, women in general in the western world have more choices and not all women do want to have babies, some want a career and freedom. Also if we will have a future of lockdowns, I think people are wondering how they will cope with working from home and schooling younger children. You just need to read a post on here every day about people with unsupportive partners and on the verge of breakdowns because they can't cope with pressures. Also some parts of the world are having a population boom, it is said in Africa the population is expected to go up by a billion over the next 50 years and in some cultures, it is still expected women have as many children as they can.

I’m heavily pregnant but it was a surprise conception in July. I would not have actively TTC. The midwives here say they’ve had a quiet few months for births but have a lot of pregnant women on their books now for births due from April-ish. That ties up with restrictions being loosened in July/August, I suppose.

Why is human population decline suddenly considered bad? The world's ecosystems are on the verge of catastrophe.

There are a lot of women ttc right now - see the conception boards on MN - it’s a self-selective sample but lots of people finding are it hard to conceive at the moment. I know quite a few women who are pregnant right now though (given our own ttc difficulties, some might say too many (it’s hard too see tbh)).Part of me does wonder if the general air of lockdown stress/meh is actively impacting the chances of those of us ttc in 2020-21 without luck. Who knows!

How is this a bad thing? My DD is on the fence but having kids isn't the be all to end all for many. Don't see this as a bad thing in this world at all.

Exactly what @Chihuahuacat. We’re in London (mixed area, not posh). Both professionals, educated to postgrad level. Live in nice but small house with tiny garden - would have to move a fair way out of London to afford anything bigger. We have one toddler and won’t be having any more - had already pretty much decided on this pre-pandemic but COVID has definitely firmed up that decision (I turned 40 last year, so very late in the day anyway). It’s a mix of age, lifestyle reasons, concern about the environment and general uncertainty about the future. We know things are going to be a mess for a good while, and want to give DD the best life we can possibly provide.

Some of my friends do have 2+ DC, but there are definitely many more only children around now, and tbh it feels like our age group (born late ‘70s/early ‘80s) is the last to be able to comfortably afford even one child. No idea how the generation down from us is going to manage.

I think as in many other areas, COVID is acting as a catalyst for a trend that was already emerging.

@Cripesitsthegasman19

Why is human population decline suddenly considered bad? The world's ecosystems are on the verge of catastrophe.

It’s welcome from an environmental perspective, but low fertility also goes hand-in-hand with ageing populations and a rising tax burden to pay for pensions and healthcare.

I would be thinking long and hard about bringing a child in to this world we live in. Sadly it isnt perfect, unless you have loads of money it seems like the best thing to do is not bring another person in this world.

Also, somewhat hypocritically, I think fewer humans can only be a good thing for the planet. I justify my own ttc by the fact that I am the only one on my entire maternal line of cousins who wants kids and we would def stop at 2 so replacing our own greenie zero waste vegan selves.

Lower birth rate is good on a global level but difficult on an economic level if you fall below replacement rate and end up with a top heavy population of elderly people supported by ever fewer workers.

I'm pregnant at the moment but mid 30s and been ttc since 2017 so putting it off last year could have been deciding not to have kids at all. I'm actually still surprised as we were due to start fertility treatment last year and it got cancelled due to covid...

As others have said, a lower population is good, but it needs to fall slowly. A rapid population decline unbalances the world economically - too many older people needing support and care and not enough younger people to provide it.

The other problem is that humans have a bizarre fixation with nationality which makes them do stupid things like Brexit. With rapid population decline you have to get the fuck over yourself with regard to immigration and start welcoming people from other countries but many nations seem unable to do that and would rather shoot themselves in the foot than contemplate sharing their air with forriners.

I had a baby during the first lockdown - my second, so (IMO) not as hard as for the first-time mothers I know. The uncertainty about availability of healthcare services around antenatal and postnatal care and the birth was traumatising, frankly. I don’t know how many women who weren’t already pregnant would have this on their radar, but it would be extremely off putting for me personally to have another before things are more stable.

“ I’m quite private; so I almost wish I’d had the baby in lockdown... I have a few looser friends who did that. I know some people really struggled without the support, but I’m quite independent and don’t have family, so I think not having people desperate to come over and things would have made it nicer for me!”

I would have said the same I think, before my first. It’s very hard to say how you might feel after you have a baby - hopefully your expectations aren’t far off the mark.

Thanks HereComesATractor - you’re probably right that there’s a lot that I haven’t considered, availability of postnatal care being one of them!

I hope you and baby are doing okay.

I thought we were massively overpopulated and there were too many babies anyway? I mean that sounds horrible as I wouldn't want there not to be any of the babies that there are ...but I didn't think that this was actually a problem?

Those figures really surprise me, but only because I personally know 11 women with babies due in the first half of 2021. Friends, neighbours, family, work colleagues. I realise that anecdote does not = data but I've never known so many people due at once! The mothers range in age from 29 to 40, for some its their 1st baby and some their 2nd.

@OpheliasCrayon while it's true that the increase in global population is putting pressure on resources especially potable water of which there is only a finite supply, that population increase isn't being driven by birth rates. Global birth rates have been dropping for decades and in several places are teetering at or even under replacement levels.

Global population has increased due to medical advances and social reform.

So, we're having fewer babies but fewer of us are dying. In particular dramatically fewer of us are dying in infancy.

So what we've got now is more people with a bulge at one end of economically inactive people. The bigger that bulge gets wrt the taper at the other (ie young people) the more pressure we will have on the economic systems we all depend on for health and activities relating to provision of resources.

I'm pregnant (very - this baby was due three days ago!) and do have quite frequent moments of guilt where I wonder if I'd have gone ahead if I'd known it would go on so long. On the other hand, the very fact it's gone on so long would have made it very hard for us to wait until it was over - our first took us two years and three miscarriages, so I'd assumed we'd have another long and difficult journey, whereas this was one was actually conceived the first time we didn't use contraception. But not knowing that, waiting until Covid was 'over' would have meant consciously deciding to further increase what already felt like significant odds that we'd never have a second child. I do feel guilty sometimes, but I also can't bring myself to regret it as I sit here cradling my massive bump and desperate to meet this baby...

The points about low birth years are interesting, but as you say this exacerbates existing trends - DS was born in 2018 and I remember reading after having him.that it was the lowest birth rate since the early 2000s (and being a bit pleased because it should make things a bit easier for school places!)

If I’d been seriously TTC when all this started I may have held off for a couple of months because of the sudden upheaval and uncertainty but I think I’d have started up again by now.

I’ve flirted with the idea of a second dc (and we don’t conceive easily so it would always have to be a conscious decision) but given my age and the uncertainty globally right now I’m not comfortable with the idea at all. I’m happy with our family as it is and don’t want to make potentially difficult times ahead any harder even if that means the chance of a second child will pass me by.

I was going to TTC but the pandemic has put me right off with everything happening in maternity and lots of restrictions set to last years. Plus DD is getting older every day meaning a huge age gap. So I don't think we will bother now! I am sure I'm not the only one in that mindset.

This is good news isn't it? Fewer humans means we can't screw up the planet (quite) as much.

Better to have fewer babies born than have people die in a pandemic - pity we have to have the pandemic bit too.