A lot fewer babies being born in almost every country

[Kokeshi123]

For all the jokes about couples getting busy on lockdown and creating a baby boom, the precise opposite appears to have happened in (as far as we can tell) all developed countries, and most middle income countries as well.

As the figures for births over Dec 2020 to Feb 2021 come in, they nearly always show a lot fewer babies being conceived since last spring.

It's not clear what is going to happen in the years ahead. Will the number of conceptions bounce back as people go ahead with pregnancies that they've delayed? Or will the return of restaurants and travel cause people to put the baby plans on the back burner for yet another year as they seek to catch up with the things they've missed out on? Or will continued uncertainty about the future make people less eager to have children?

There are certainly some interesting consequences we will need to look out for. Growing families tend to stimulate consumption, so we are about to see rather less of that. And if the 2020-2021 cohort turns out to be an unusually small one, that may have some interesting consequences right into the future (less competition for university entrance, graduate jobs etc.....) Long-term, obviously there are concerns about future dependency ratios, supporting pension systems and the like.

The surprising thing is that countries which handled the pandemic "well" like Taiwan and Australia seem to have seen similar declines in births compared with the countries that have done a poor job. Perhaps the decline in births is less to do with lockdown misery and more to do with a general sense of pessimism/uncertainty.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/articles/provisionalbirthsinenglandandwales/latest (UK) also www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/07/britain-faces-baby-bust-covid-forces-birth-rate-record-low/

thebull.com.au/aussie-population-growth-hits-8%C2%BD-year-low-most-jobs-added-in-accommodation-food-services/ (Australia)

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Society/Japan-s-pandemic-baby-bust-seen-pushing-births-below-800-000 (Japan)

www.forbes.com/sites/alicebroster/2021/02/03/coronavirus-hasnt-lead-to-the-baby-boom-that-was-anticipated-according-to-a-new-study/?sh=58bb1d954b79 (United States)

edition.cnn.com/2021/02/09/asia/china-population-births-intl-hnk/index.html (China)

www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/france-births-covid-lockdown/2021/02/10/285385ae-656c-11eb-bab8-707f8769d785_story.html (France)

Brilliant news.

Depends how you’re fixed for a pension and care needs @poppycat10. Inverse pyramid aged societies are expensive and generally don’t spread the load. Like a PP pointed out, gradual declines in population are generally more sustainable than sudden shifts.

I’m going to take a wild guess that birth rates will still dwarf mortality rates so I don’t think there is anything spectacular on the cards just yet.

It's really not brilliant news. In a few decades there will be huge numbers of old people, and far fewer working people. Old people don't pay tax, they are a drain on the economy. Young people pay into the economy. An imbalance of this type is an economic disaster.

Exactly @ChocOrange1. And a poorly performing economy doesn't just mean we all have to live simpler lives or any of that tree hugging crap that environmental nihilists advocating against people having babies come out with. It means worse healthcare, limited access to necessary resources and worse quality of life for everyone.

Really, every knee jerk pontificator rattling on about how they haven't contributed to overpopulation because they haven't had babies needs to take themselves off to quiet cave as soon as they develop a chronic condition, whether that's diabetes or cataracts or whatever. Because overpopulation isn't caused by births but by medicine. IF you want to get essentialist about it. Which is exactly what the "too many babies" crew do.

Contrary to what I have known amongst work colleagues and people such as suppliers for the company I work for- never known so many. if there is a decline, is it because there is less opportunity for affairs and new relationships?

I agree @SomewhereUpMyArse. When it comes to refusing medical treatment it’s a very specific group that tend to do this and it isn’t compromised of relatively young environmentalists.

Yes @Cornettoninja, I doubt that any of the proto-Thundbergs trumpeting about how they are saving the planet by not "breeding", to use their word, would be so keen on saving it by refusing medicine that will keep them alive past 50, even though they totally should be given their absolutist stance.

Though, they've missed the boat anyway if they want to keep population levels down to pre second-wave industrial revolution numbers as really most of them should have died of diptheria/smallpox etc prior to age five and in not doing so they've fucked things up for everyone.

I had my first baby in September. I’m happy I had him, but I don’t think I’d have continued TTC during lockdown and I’m less sure about having a second child now.

I didn’t imagine being this lonely and bored on maternity leave. I’ve actually requested to end my maternity leave earlier than planned because it’s been so bad for my mental health.

When he was conceived, we had never considered that schools, nurseries, after school clubs, etc could suddenly shut for months on end. Now people are aware that having a child can mean trying to balance homeschooling or looking after children while working.

We have a home office but we’d have to turn that into a bedroom if we had another child - we couldn’t fit two beds in DS’ room. Before covid that wouldn’t have been an issue, but with two of us having to make confidential work calls from home, I can’t imagine getting rid of it any time soon.

My friend delivered her first just before the pandemic. Had her second during the pandemic and is currently pregnant with baby number 3.

Bloody hell @seepingweeping I couldn’t cope with those pregnancies/babies so close together in before times never mind now! All power to her but blimey..

I’m not all that surprised. I could believe that more people are having a first child but fewer with two or more are choosing to have another. Supervising primary aged children doing distance learning is quite hard work and I can’t imagine doing it with a baby or a toddler.

It may be that this carries on for a few (3 to 5) years. There’s a loss of trust that schools are not going to shut down again and again and it’s going to be hard to get over that.

@Cornettoninja I couldn't either 😂 she was laughing when she told me she was pregnant again. Her youngest was only 6 weeks old

I had my second in March. If I’d have known what was coming, I wouldn’t. Not because I worry about the future, I’d have always chosen to have children but just not in a pandemic. It’s been bloody hard to have a baby with zero support until they allowed bubbles at the back end of the year. Having a baby just as nursery closed & isolation began was frankly awful for both me & my very confused & overwhelmed 2 year old. We’ve come out the other side but I wouldn’t choose to do it again, safe to say!

Interestingly I know so many people who have got pregnant this year, most of them citing that they’ve realised life is too short!

MoirasRoses It sounds like we had a similar experience

I wonder what proportion of fewer births is to do with the fact that lots of fertility treatment was halted for several months (I have no idea what proportion of births it is normally)

I remember listening to More Or Less back in April(ish) and they predicted a fall in births, so it's interesting to see they were right.

Personally I found out I was pregnant the week we went into lockdown. I sometimes wonder whether we'd have carried on TTC or not if I hadn't. I think we would have - but you don't really know, do you?

@HereComesATractor

I wonder what proportion of fewer births is to do with the fact that lots of fertility treatment was halted for several months (I have no idea what proportion of births it is normally)

I’ll take a guess teenage pregnancy rates have plummeted this year.

"I could believe that more people are having a first child but fewer with two or more are choosing to have another."

I wonder about single child families. The one thing I'm now absolutely convinced of is that I want my DD to have at least one sibling, preferably quite close in age (though not to the point of getting pregnant 6 weeks after birth like the PP's friend!!)

Good. Over-population is responsible for environmental devastation. Fewer people on the planet can only be a good thing.

Off you go then.

I mean, you're older than 30, right?

If so I'm sorry, but as we are now living according to environmental essentialist policies - which you expressly adhere to - then everyone over that age is an embodiment of surplus in terms of the great population uplift brought about by medicine and enlightened social measures and therefore needs to do the right thing, stat.

I started ttc dc2 during the first lockdown and I'm now pg. I'm over 40 so we didn't have the chance to wait really - I wonder if there will be more of a skew towards older mums, as we have had to go ahead if we wanted a baby at all, while younger women could wait out the pandemic or at least until things are more certain.

We're fortunate to be financially secure, partly due to being older, and partly thanks to a recent windfall. Housing isn't an issue for us - if anything, the thought of just having one dd as the only child in a big house made me want at least one more child to be a companion for her.

My experience of having a toddler during the pandemic has been OK, which is perhaps why I wasn't put off by the idea of being isolated with a new baby. We've been lucky that where we are, toddler groups and activities resumed quickly, so I was back at toddler classes and soft play all through August until January. DD started part time nursery in June and has been attending uninterrupted. I'm optimistic that I'll be able to do baby classes and other activities with my newborn (due in September), albeit with restrictions. I'm a sahm so even if we have to deal with homeschooling, I feel I could manage it. In the future I'm hopeful that dc2 will at least gain a bit of an advantage through less competition for school places, uni places, jobs etc.

We went for it - baby due next week!

In my opinion the best time to have gotten pregnant - all the things I had tickets for (festivals/trips etc got cancelled) I’ve not missed a single night out cus there wasn’t any, literally missed nothing!

Working at home so I’m really relaxed, no commuting!

Now looks like a lot of things I’d planned this year are also cancelled (Glastonbury etc) which suits me fine as il have a small baby! Hoping to go next year as the baby will be bigger and I can leave with parents for the weekend!!

If I waited til the end of the pandemic I’d just miss everything that we have to look forward to in 2022 cus I’d be pregnant and then have a newborn!

So was deffo better to do it now I felt

@Heyahun

We went for it - baby due next week!

In my opinion the best time to have gotten pregnant - all the things I had tickets for (festivals/trips etc got cancelled) I’ve not missed a single night out cus there wasn’t any, literally missed nothing!

Working at home so I’m really relaxed, no commuting!

Now looks like a lot of things I’d planned this year are also cancelled (Glastonbury etc) which suits me fine as il have a small baby! Hoping to go next year as the baby will be bigger and I can leave with parents for the weekend!!

If I waited til the end of the pandemic I’d just miss everything that we have to look forward to in 2022 cus I’d be pregnant and then have a newborn!

So was deffo better to do it now I felt

This is what I've been thinking tbh. Awful as a childless person to miss out on everything that it was my last year or two to do! I'll be using donor sperm and wondered if this might suddenly become more widespread as single ladies have had to miss out on meeting a partner. For many, there is no time to lose.