A lot fewer babies being born in almost every country

[Kokeshi123]

For all the jokes about couples getting busy on lockdown and creating a baby boom, the precise opposite appears to have happened in (as far as we can tell) all developed countries, and most middle income countries as well.

As the figures for births over Dec 2020 to Feb 2021 come in, they nearly always show a lot fewer babies being conceived since last spring.

It's not clear what is going to happen in the years ahead. Will the number of conceptions bounce back as people go ahead with pregnancies that they've delayed? Or will the return of restaurants and travel cause people to put the baby plans on the back burner for yet another year as they seek to catch up with the things they've missed out on? Or will continued uncertainty about the future make people less eager to have children?

There are certainly some interesting consequences we will need to look out for. Growing families tend to stimulate consumption, so we are about to see rather less of that. And if the 2020-2021 cohort turns out to be an unusually small one, that may have some interesting consequences right into the future (less competition for university entrance, graduate jobs etc.....) Long-term, obviously there are concerns about future dependency ratios, supporting pension systems and the like.

The surprising thing is that countries which handled the pandemic "well" like Taiwan and Australia seem to have seen similar declines in births compared with the countries that have done a poor job. Perhaps the decline in births is less to do with lockdown misery and more to do with a general sense of pessimism/uncertainty.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/articles/provisionalbirthsinenglandandwales/latest (UK) also www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/07/britain-faces-baby-bust-covid-forces-birth-rate-record-low/

thebull.com.au/aussie-population-growth-hits-8%C2%BD-year-low-most-jobs-added-in-accommodation-food-services/ (Australia)

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Society/Japan-s-pandemic-baby-bust-seen-pushing-births-below-800-000 (Japan)

www.forbes.com/sites/alicebroster/2021/02/03/coronavirus-hasnt-lead-to-the-baby-boom-that-was-anticipated-according-to-a-new-study/?sh=58bb1d954b79 (United States)

edition.cnn.com/2021/02/09/asia/china-population-births-intl-hnk/index.html (China)

www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/france-births-covid-lockdown/2021/02/10/285385ae-656c-11eb-bab8-707f8769d785_story.html (France)

I’m not surprised I thought it would be the case

@OpheliasCrayon

I thought we were massively overpopulated and there were too many babies anyway? I mean that sounds horrible as I wouldn't want there not to be any of the babies that there are ...but I didn't think that this was actually a problem?

Falling birth rates is a problem because it’s happening at the same time as an ageing population. Lots more older people with fewer younger people to care for them and support them financially. The state pension used to last a few years - now it’s not uncommon for people to have a 20 year plus retirement.

Fewer babies are being born in general. Many women are already voting with their feet when it comes to motherhood. I imagine the pandemic has just exacerbated things.

I think the dip in conceptions from March to June is will be compensated by an increase from July to October. I know so many people due in June/July.

Parenting ages are going up anyway, largely cos of money - housing impossible for most & MC lifestyle requires 2 incomes.

Now with even less prospect of home ownership and two riskier jobs that will just get paid worse, the future looks worse than it ever has.

In theory, the deaths of the old from Covid should release a little bit of cash for younger people to achieve a home in which they can house their children.

No one’s holding their breath - most Covid deaths were a bit premature rather than bolts from the blue and a lot of assets will have been spent on eldercare.

I imagine a lot of people don't think now is a great time to have a baby.

This all sounds like a back story to Children of Men.

@PicsInRed

This all sounds like a back story to Children of Men.

Eh? Children of men was about a world were infertility was thrust on the global population unwillingly not a decline in birth rate through choice? Society was slowly collapsing because there was no hope of a future which isn’t the case here.

Or are you seeing a future where the ‘quietus’ would be a real possibility to relieve the burden on the young.

My initial thoughts on birth rates as lockdown approached was assuming a rise in conceptions from couples having more time together, then I realised that unlike the baby booms resulting from the 3 day weeks in the 70s, we have Netflix to pass the time. Then after a couple of weeks of attempting to homeschool and having no peace from my family, it looked like TTC siblings would look very unappealing. I had decided to stop at 2 a few years back for several reasons.

A lot of relationships are struggling under the intensity of life. Forming new relationships has been significantly hindered. Less chances for unplanned pregnancies.

I'd probably have blundered on with #1 anyway, and on the cusp of 40, I wouldn't have delayed any intentions to TTC. I can see why on balance, the trends are down.

It's been going on for a long time now.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-53409521

Several women I am friends with (mid 30s to 40s) have said they aren’t having a family at all, or are having a smaller one due to the climate emergency and ecosystem collapse. Maybe COVID is also a factor now as well.

Environmentally I think smaller families are no doubt helpful----but we all need to think about how we will manage this transition. Pressures on healthcare services are likely to become more frequent as populations age, especially if a larger number of old people also starts to act as a drag on innovation.

An ageing population isn’t something to aspire to.

A naice MC consumerist lifestyle isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.

Having a baby in a pandemic isn’t necessarily the worst thing in the world.

If you wanted a baby, try for a baby. If you’re about to have a baby, enjoy your baby (esp @Hardbackwriter, upthread ). If you’ve had a baby, great job!

Agree with PP, all these virtuous one-child-or-fewer misanthropes can shuffle off.

News of birth rates going down can only be good. The population increase is steamrolling us all towards disaster.

In fact, if I wasn’t too old, I’d have another one for the economy and to piss off the misanthropes.

Most people are ignorant on this topic - always quick to blame children. I suppose that's easy, because all adults have left childhood behind - even near forgotten it - while most have old age to come.

But the fact is that there aren't too many children; there are too many old people. Old people seemingly expecting to live forever and to be "cared for".

So, naturally, we are addressing this problem by attempting to eradicate diseases of old age, such as Covid-19. And in doing so, we have doubly compounded the problem by robbing the world of hundreds of thousands of babies.

Kings made tombs more splendid than houses of the living. and counted old names in the rolls of their descent dearer than the names of sons. Childless lords sat in aged halls musing on heraldry; in secret chambers withered men compounded strong elixirs, or in high cold towers asked questions of the stars. And the last king of the line of Anárion had no heir.

Source: The Two Towers, Tolkien

Europe is withering.

pre covid UK birth rates were declining with the average age of parents getting older. Life is expensive!

Global population has increased due to medical advances and social reform.

This is the problem. If you want fewer people you still need to maintain a proportionate young working tax paying one. It's uncomfortable discussion though.

The only downside to me being pregnant during lockdown is unable to go swimming, which is my way to release stress and tension. However I'm happy with the privacy that I have being pregnant during lockdown, which offsets the downside.

I only read the first 2 links for the uk. The ONS one was for January-September 2020, so nothing to do
With covid and the other one contained no figures?? I thought there were more pregnancies. Or maybe thats just certain occupations which have seen horrible working conditions! (NHS, education...)

@chihuahuacat

That's so interesting. I live in the North and hit 30 last year and it seems like everyone I know who is around my age is pregnant (I just had my first baby recently too!).

We are all (mostly) professionals but relatively low house prices mean we nearly all own homes suited to children and, providing circumstances don't change, are still expecting to afford holidays etc.

Maybe there is a regional difference based on cost of living?

[quote SomewhereUpMyArse]@OpheliasCrayon while it's true that the increase in global population is putting pressure on resources especially potable water of which there is only a finite supply, that population increase isn't being driven by birth rates. Global birth rates have been dropping for decades and in several places are teetering at or even under replacement levels.

Global population has increased due to medical advances and social reform.

So, we're having fewer babies but fewer of us are dying. In particular dramatically fewer of us are dying in infancy.

So what we've got now is more people with a bulge at one end of economically inactive people. The bigger that bulge gets wrt the taper at the other (ie young people) the more pressure we will have on the economic systems we all depend on for health and activities relating to provision of resources.[/quote]
Oh ok thanks I didn't know anything about this at all - I just thought that we were having too many babies !

I can't imagine anyone spending the last year with their children and thinking "I know, let's have more!". And spending that much time cooped up with partners, is probably less likely to make you want to have sex with them. All their irritating habits highlighted every. Sodding. Day.

And fewer accidental pregnancies from short term relationships.

I’ve enjoyed extra time with my husband and children in our home. Even home-schooling our children and also WFH full time together in the current lockdown (he’s been WFH since March but I only started WFH FT in January but was WFH some of the time before that). I’m very bored of restrictions now but not of my family. lockdowns haven’t put me off having another child. My pregnancy is an ‘accident’ and I wouldn’t have TTC on purpose but that’s because of things like not seeing wider family, worries over access to medical care during coronavirus, worries about higher risks during covid etc.

I’ve considered having a 4th just for something to do tbh.