After lockdown...the sh*t will hit the fan

[Desperado40]

My biggest fear is not covid or if life will be ever back to normal. I know this will pass and we will be able to socialise, travel etc. at some point.
What’s keeping me awake at night, literally, is the state of affairs when we are out of the immediate covid crisis. There will be high unemployment, lots of businesses will go bust after support tap is off, mental health and general health crisis (think of the huge backlog of surgeries and treatments postponed!). But most of all, I ma fearingthe day when the government starts clawing billions spent back from us. I feel that our quality of life will be much worse (as a nation) than we realise. There is also brexit to add to it all. Has anyone got any positive views on this to share (and make me feel better?). Need some optimism desperately.

@Coffeeandbananas

I also disagree re spending. I think I'll be saving as much as I can for if we have another scenario such as this.

Yes indeed. I'm saving like mad and won't be spending much of it at all as I'm very worried about what the future holds. My business has already been badly hit and I have a lot of small business clients holding on by their finger tips, many of whom will have to close and some declare bankruptcy if they don't get help or can restart their businesses soon. I could lose over half my sales yet my overheads won't fall, so that comes straight off my profit/wage. There are 3 million self employed who've been excluded from the Govt support schemes (thanks to Rishi's incompetence and arrogance) - that's 3 million people who won't be saving nor spending any time soon and who are mostly looking for jobs to pay their bills.

@RainingBatsAndFrogs

I saw a report that the process of Brexit has cost more than COVID.

But

It can be paid off over decades. Apparently we have only just finished paying for WW2.

We were potless for decades after the war.

I don’t know. I would love to be optimistic and I do think initially there will be a period of positivity when we’re all allowed to be with loved ones again, travel outwith our local authority, go back to the office (or feel liberated by continuing to wfh).

But I do think the costs of all this plus Brexit will hit hard and has hit many people hard already. All my friends who work in the arts are really suffering. A friend who’s a musician obviously hasn’t worked in months and whatever shit is going on with work visas due to Brexit is only going to make things worse. People I know who run small businesses selling kids’ clothes from Scandinavia are really worrying because the massive bills from UPS et al are making it all but impossible to sell items at previous prices. So I don’t feel too good about it all. You look back at the 20s and a lot of the mad partying could be read as a reaction to the utter grief after WW1 (I saw Fitzgerald mentioned upthread), effectively a sticking plaster on a gaping wound. And then fascism in the 30s. But equally this isn’t the 1920s/30s, the world is very different. So God knows.

@Desperado40

My biggest fear is not covid or if life will be ever back to normal. I know this will pass and we will be able to socialise, travel etc. at some point. What’s keeping me awake at night, literally, is the state of affairs when we are out of the immediate covid crisis. There will be high unemployment, lots of businesses will go bust after support tap is off, mental health and general health crisis (think of the huge backlog of surgeries and treatments postponed!). But most of all, I ma fearingthe day when the government starts clawing billions spent back from us. I feel that our quality of life will be much worse (as a nation) than we realise. There is also brexit to add to it all. Has anyone got any positive views on this to share (and make me feel better?). Need some optimism desperately.

I totally agree OP. People have no idea how bad the is will be for their year of ‘fsafety’

[quote Spiratedaway]@GrumpyHoonMain suicides have not reduced mental health has gone up 250%
10 million people 1.5 million under 18! [/quote]
I don’t think you’re saying what you intended to say here. Mental health ‘going up’ (improving) is a positive thing. I sincerely doubt that’s happening.

@Kazzyhoward

People are quite accepting of people dying from alzheimers, flu, heart disease, obesity, alcohol and and smoking related illnesses but No one can die of Covid. That's more special.

Out of all those, only Flu is infectious. Most of the others are lifestyle related and aren't contagious. People have their own control (or lack of it) re lifestyle related illnesses. Completely different to infectious diseases where you're very limited as to how you can control it when it's others around you who are likely to pass it to you.

Yes but they are preventable and hit a wider range of people, not just those with underlying health conditions and elderly.

We take risks every day, in the choices we make and those around us.
Here we have a virus with a 99% survival rate before a vaccine and people are scared whitless and wont leave their house. Its madness.

And me! I’ll be out spending with the best of them!

Feeding the capitalist machine, ensuring the very wealthy get even more wealthy.

That’s what they want. They want us spending money because consumerism drives their accumulation of capital.

As I said before, the divide will continue.
The job secure and wealthy will look forward to spending and the rest of us have had our lives turned upside down.

I've got money in my account just waiting to be spent. I'm hanging for car showrooms to be open so I can order a new car after a test drive. I shall be going to restaurants and hairdresser and shopping. Bring it on

Point displayed above

I've worked damn hard to keep my small business going so have no qualms about going out spending to help the economy lift. Those of us that haven't been hardest hit financially should help the economy kick start by not hoarding cash. The more we spend the more it will filter down to those who have been massively affected with furlough pay etc. I see it as a positive - it's my duty to go out and spend the money I've not spent in 12 months.

NeverForgetYourDreams I agree. If you can afford it, spend money on your house, your garden, trips and meals out.
The problem is when we all spend our money on cheap, imported goods and flights abroad. As someone said up thread, most of us don’t need more stuff. The planet is already in a sorry state.

I think there’ll be an initial short-lived boom in spending, as people can go out and do things they couldn’t. To be followed by high unemployment, higher prices, huge rises in taxation.

It terrifies me.

It’s really interesting to read different points of view on this. I think that there will be an immediate period of spending for those who can afford it. I definitely want to go out, socialise but I think I will be doing it very, very carefully. I think that people will be more careful with spending because of the uncertainty of post covid. Some will go wild no doubt.

@DownstairsMixUp

Mumsnet is very middle class so I'm not surprised to see people in a bubble and saying we will have a roaring 20s. On the other side of the picture, the normal working class people I see every day have absolutely zero savings, lost jobs and businesses and will have nothing to put into the economy when this is all over. Bad times ahead for many.

Agree totally.

Everyone I Know is just working and keeping heads above water in manual jobs like maintenance, shop workers , food workers.

Everybody’s bills ours included are higher like gas and electric as we are all at home more and contending with bloody Beast from the East weather.
Spending more on food as we are all at home more.

We can’t save a penny.

If it’s true that food and energy prices are going to be rising then we are fucked as those are are our biggest bills anyway, higher than mortgage etc.

We certainly won’t be out partying or spending , a meal out for our family previously cost between 50-75 depending where we ate. If restaurants become more expensive and food prices rise then we will not be able to afford it unless it’s perhaps a once a year treat.

I can only see our bills going up and up.

But obviously yes looking forward to doing free things like going to see parents and kids doing sleepovers with grandparents.

We will certainly not be able to take part in any roaring “ 2020’s” activities though.

@LemonSherbetFancies

As I said before, the divide will continue. The job secure and wealthy will look forward to spending and the rest of us have had our lives turned upside down.

Yes to those in secure jobs. Not so sure about "the wealthy" as we could well have high (or even hyper) inflation and low (or zero) interest rates and investment returns, so people living on savings/investments may see a massive fall in income/wealth over the next few years.

I think it will be both - the high spending and the high poverty. As others say the great divide.

I think social mobility will be really difficult. For example I want to buy a bigger house next year as we are in a 2 bed (very very cheap mortgage and running costs though) and dds need a room each but I'm prepared that I might be totally blocked from doing this. We can live with it it's not the end of the world. I'm saving plenty each month and I'm very grateful but there will be lots like me.

My wider worry as a sw is the avalanche of referrals that will hit us in 21'. There has been no face to face visiting from any services for a year now except sw (children's not adults) and midwives. That's it. No children's centre, health visitors, drug and alcohol counsellors, nspcc doing sex abuse work etc nothing.....this is a powder keg that will swamp the already stripped to the bone social services.

I've been a sw 12 years and it's the hardest it's ever been. And we arnt at the referral peak by any stretch. When the schools come back it will be dire.

I'm noticing families coming back in who have been stable for years who are crumbling.

@LemonSherbetFancies

As I said before, the divide will continue. The job secure and wealthy will look forward to spending and the rest of us have had our lives turned upside down.

I am not job secure or wealthy, I work in a factory on minumum wage. I'm still bloody looking forward to going out and enjoying myself after a year of doing nothing.

Not so sure about "the wealthy" as we could well have high (or even hyper) inflation and low (or zero) interest rates and investment returns, so people living on savings/investments may see a massive fall in income/wealth over the next few years.

@Kazzyhoward We’ve had very low interest rates for the best part of a decade now, so I don’t see how anything will change for wealthy people living on savings. Inflation will only make a small dent in their financial situation if they’re wealthy, but it’ll be catastrophic for poor people.

@wanderings

Yep. The government are keeping dead silent about the legacy of lockdown, aren't they, preferring to distract us with "VIRUS! VARIANT! VACCINE!" I expect that Saint Boris and most of his merry men will quietly shuffle off into the sunset just before this shit hits the fan. And his successor will tax us to death, 'cos Covid.

And yes, I think this is more a massive power grab by the government, more than about health. If riots do happen (and I think they should have happened ages ago), that can only be a good thing. I expect there will be lots of them this summer.

Why do you always say Saint Boris and his merry men?

@notalwaysalondoner
I have 3 children. They’ve all still been socialising. Early years childcare is still open & the majority are still using it.
Primary children are either in school on keyworker places or on Microsoft teams / google classroom etc.
Most are “socialising” online. Some have had extra tutoring if needed.
The children will be fine
Those with babies under 1 are entitled to a support bubble so majority have seen more than mum & dad

@nevernotstruggling this isn’t true nationally. My son has still been seeing his speech and language therapist, health visitor, EP & OT, paediatrician, dietician, sleep support,. All face to face.

@AmIBeingTwatty

Postcode lottery then because mine certainly hasn’t. We have been given a few leaflets mind 🤨.

@AmIBeingTwatty I'm really glad your child support has been stable that's really encouraging. I think your experience is the exception though.