SAGE say lockdown cycles could last several years

[IesuMariJoseff]

I can't believe I suddenly live in a world in which our human rights have become conditional based on hidden calculations around hospital capacity.

The first lockdown, I understood. The second, ok. Even now, I'll bare it. It's hard but the vaccines are being rolled out, it felt like the last leg.

Years? Fucking years?

Clap hands and shit is the new snapped and farted

I'm actually proper honoured as that was one of my favourite things ever.

The government regularly ignores SAGE and aren't going to fund the health services better long-term so lockdowns will end having to be used if the NHS is overwhelmed in future winters.

But that's of course what SAGE advisors are supposed to do. I am in a technical role and I have to present my technical facts and recommendations. I also present alternatives with estimates. It's up to the business people then to select which path they want to take.

It won’t happen. We can’t afford it as a nation for one thing.

@IcedPurple

The whole goal (as has been demonstrated by many, many, many countries around the world) is to approach elimination (through aggressive lockdowns) whereby you can actually live a normal life.

" many, many, many countries"?

Are you sure?

Could you name those European countries which have 'approached elimination' and where life is more or less normal?

Europe is the worst performing continent in the world (topped only by North America). Which is kind of the point... the other continents (which have been far, far more aggressive at reducing cases than Europeans) have performed better. It's not really an opinion, it's just objective fact based on infections and deaths. This doesn't include population stats but might help you compare responses around the world: www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Europe is the worst performing continent in the world (topped only by North America). Which is kind of the point... the other continents (which have been far, far more aggressive at reducing cases than Europeans) have performed better. It's not really an opinion, it's just objective fact based on infections and deaths.

"Objective fact" which doesn't take into account such things as age profile, population density and status as an international travel hub is pretty useless.

No country comparable to the UK has 'approached elimination', for very good reasons. If people don't understand why the situation here is completely incomparable to Oz or NZ, after nearly a year of discussions, then there's really no point in going over it yet again.

I'd rather clap in my hands and shit than go on an overpriced, over-crowded and most likely rainy UK holiday.

I really enjoy a UK holiday, much better than the sheer hell that is airports, flying, jet lag and being ripped off in another country because you don’t speak the language well enough.

The US, UK and Europe have far more reliable testing and counting than most of the rest of the world.
South Africa for instance has official deaths of 45K but excess mortality just over double that.
Tanzania has apparently eradicted covid by simply deciding it's so.

Yep we've had a good run, we might as well give up on human rights now and be grateful for what we had

Not at all. I’m just suggesting we recognise that there have always been emergency circumstances which have overridden human rights, but in democratic societies that is always temporary. The current restrictions won’t last for ever.

I really enjoy a UK holiday, much better than the sheer hell that is airports, flying, jet lag and being ripped off in another country because you don’t speak the language well enough.

Not nearly as pleasant when it's massively overcrowded and prices through the roof though.

Not nearly as pleasant when it's massively overcrowded and prices through the roof though.

That is very true!

@icedpurple

I'm sorry but your argument genuinely confuses me. You seem to be suggesting that the U.K. - uniquely in the world - has a set of circumstances that mean it can't manage covid like other countries that have achieved better statistics. I agree that no two countries are comparable are circumstances are affected by factors. But I genuinely don't understand what the specific factors are that means we can't eliminate covid... It can't be population density as Taiwan is much more dense than us and has 8 deaths. It can't be age and demographics as Canada has a similar age profile and lower deaths. Africa has far more extreme income inequality and worse health in general but fewer deaths (in literally every single African country). So please explain what the unique circumstances are that explain why the U.K. has the worst mortality rate in the world....

[quote orishan]@icedpurple

I'm sorry but your argument genuinely confuses me. You seem to be suggesting that the U.K. - uniquely in the world - has a set of circumstances that mean it can't manage covid like other countries that have achieved better statistics. I agree that no two countries are comparable are circumstances are affected by factors. But I genuinely don't understand what the specific factors are that means we can't eliminate covid... It can't be population density as Taiwan is much more dense than us and has 8 deaths. It can't be age and demographics as Canada has a similar age profile and lower deaths. Africa has far more extreme income inequality and worse health in general but fewer deaths (in literally every single African country). So please explain what the unique circumstances are that explain why the U.K. has the worst mortality rate in the world....[/quote]
No, I'm saying that there are many very good reasons why no European country - not just the UK - has gone for 'zero Covid'. Taiwan is not a travel hub, has had previous experience dealing with pandemics and also very different attitudes to data sharing (for track and trace). As someone pointed out above, there is very little testing done in African countries and they also have a much younger age profile. Canada has much lower population density.

The fact is that the situation is pretty similar in almost all European countries. There are reasons for that. Why is Britain always compared with completely different countries like NZ or Taiwan, rather than with, say, Ireland or Spain?

I hope it doesn't happen but I'm afraid it will. So many people saying they are fed up and going to do what they want.

And so it will start to peak again because some people are too dim to understand the consequences of their selfishness.

It’s bull shit. Go on the Gov website and see the case graph they have just posted. Cases have dramatically dropped to October levels. Vaccine roll outs are steaming on.

Summer will be ok.

Why is Britain always compared with completely different countries like NZ or Taiwan, rather than with, say, Ireland or Spain?

Brexit means that the UK is supposed to be looking to the world and not just to the EU for leadership and how to make the UK "better"

I suspect that one of the reasons that Europe has fared badly compared to Asia is the climate and open borders. The border issue is obviously political but the UK isn't in the EU now so presumably we could hard a hardcore policy like NZ if we wanted.

I suspect that one of the reasons that Europe has fared badly compared to Asia is the climate and open borders. The border issue is obviously political but the UK isn't in the EU now so presumably we could hard a hardcore policy like NZ if we wanted.

Well no, because a) the UK has a highloy sensitive open land border with an EU country, and b) Britain depends way more on freight and international travel than an island in the middle of the South Pacific with a population smaller than that of Yorkshire.

The NZ comparisons really are incredibly tiresome at this stage.

We should look at what investment Asian countries like Taiwan made after SARS which kept their COVID death rate low. Pandemics seem to happen every 2/3 years so it seems to be a case of when rather than if.

Pandemics seem to happen every 2/3 years

Are you sure?

I guess I must have missed the great pandemic of 2017. And all the others too.

I meant on the continent rather than the border with the UK. You can drive from France to Belgium or Netherlands to Germany so easily it would encourage spread. I know there's been lockdowns prohibiting travel but there's been periods when you could drive over borders too.

@RedGoldAndGreene

I meant on the continent rather than the border with the UK. You can drive from France to Belgium or Netherlands to Germany so easily it would encourage spread. I know there's been lockdowns prohibiting travel but there's been periods when you could drive over borders too.

You could also fly into Dublin, take the train to Belfast and fly anywhere in the UK from there. People have been doing it so much that the British govt has now taken measures to close this loophole.

I think once we have vaccines and boosters then we need to consider that actually what we should be doing is building up the capacity of our health and social care system in order that we can better withstand these shocks . Perhaps we also need to come to terms more with our own mortality and not expect to live forever, prior to the last fifty years people expected to die from infectious diseases they did not expect everyone to be saved and they were resilient enough to cope with this and consequently to weigh up risk .

Also snorting at 'clap in my own hands and shit'

On the topic of the thread though, I think it is fairly clear we face a choice of:
A) Suppress properly this summer whilst vaccinating
B) High risk of further lockdowns next winter (and after)

This is not a massive surprise as many scientists have been saying it since this lockdown started. Basically 'Johnson you wally, don't repeat the mistakes you made in 2020'.

@IesuMariJoseff

If you google "Sage lockdown cycles last years" there's multiple places reporting it. I'm not saying it's definitely true. I pray it's not.

Surely if they dragged this out for years people would just stop listening? Compliance is already going down, you cannot expect us to sacrifice years of our lives.

My infant has only met his family members a handful of times. He has no relationships with anyone other than me and his father. This isn't acceptable for years and I won't do it. After this lockdown I am seeing my family as normal. I'm not doing it again. Life is too short to not see your family. I refuse

People will only ignore restrictions while they are not at risk...we just have to look to last March whenever no one knew who was at risk people were panicking and complying with restrictions. All it takes is one mutation (which can happen as a result of the virus running rampant) that causes serious illness on a widespread basis in the 'I'm healthy and low risk' groups or their children and then people will comply because it will affect them...while its only 'people with underlying issues and old people' getting affected you are right they won't comply and it will be those people who pay the price for that

"Come to terms with our own mortality "

Why not go the whole hog, don't bother investing in the nhs just scrap it altogether. Reduced taxes will help the economy surely ? Health only for the rich.