Astrazeneca less effective against mild illness in SA variant

[bathsh3ba]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55967767

NB this was a sample of 2000, not yet peer reviewed.

I'm beginning to wish they wouldn't report incomplete findings so publicly. All the commentary suggests it's too early to say if this is a big problem or not - so why tell us?!

Well it's not a negative is it?!

We keep being told that people in their 20s and 30s are in hospital with this.

So yes, I choose to see it as a positive. If you want to wallow in doom and bring others down with you then crack on.

Convergent evolution - as a pp has said, the 'UK'/Kent variant has already acquired the same E484K mutation that is present in the 'SA' and 'Brazil' variants, although only a very few cases so far. Population immunity (from natural infection and from vaccination) may place pressure on the virus to try and evade this immunity via further mutations

This was expected, by Whitty and SAGE. The virus is doing exactly what it needs to do to survive. I have faith that the new vaccines will be able to combat the different variants, we may not be springing back to pre covid times but the vaccines being delivered now do at least alleviate the pressure on hospitals and prevent death, and therefore we should be able to ease restrictions.

The thing that keeps Whitty awake at night is not the Kent or SA variant, I think we all know what worries Whitty - it is the possibility that the virus will mutate and harm much younger people/children, and whole countries whom do not have genome capabilities are unaware of the mutation until it is half way around the world.

@speaksofty

Convergent evolution - as a pp has said, the 'UK'/Kent variant has already acquired the same E484K mutation that is present in the 'SA' and 'Brazil' variants, although only a very few cases so far. Population immunity (from natural infection and from vaccination) may place pressure on the virus to try and evade this immunity via further mutations

This was expected, by Whitty and SAGE. The virus is doing exactly what it needs to do to survive. I have faith that the new vaccines will be able to combat the different variants, we may not be springing back to pre covid times but the vaccines being delivered now do at least alleviate the pressure on hospitals and prevent death, and therefore we should be able to ease restrictions.

The thing that keeps Whitty awake at night is not the Kent or SA variant, I think we all know what worries Whitty - it is the possibility that the virus will mutate and harm much younger people/children, and whole countries whom do not have genome capabilities are unaware of the mutation until it is half way around the world.

If it does mutate in that way, to harm younger people or children, then the ‘impossibility’ of border closures will suddenly become miraculously possible...

And I can't help but wonder whether there isn't a bit of vaccine wars going on too in that AstraZenica undertook to sell their vaccine at cost price which is $4 per dose, whereas, for example, Moderna's is up to $37 per dose. More prices on this link:
www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-how-much-they-cost-whos-bought-them-and-how-theyre-stored.html
Where money is concerned there is no end to the underhandedness of businesses in undermining their competition.

circum Quite! Suddenly just like that the drawbridge will be hauled up, and if the lessons of the past have taught us anything, it is likely to be six months too late

Reading some of these replies, it seems to me that there is a big problem with journalists (who are scientists) translating science into headlines, which then get read by (mainly) non scientists.

Sorry, that should say journalists who are NOT scientists

@Wherediditgo yes! That has been a big problem from the start.

Podium speakers have been doing their best to break down the data, explain it as simply as possible, show how graphs and data changes over time as and when more is known. No, that's just burying us in data, not being consistent etc etc etc

And it all gets thrown out of the window when a journalist writes a doom and gloom headline. THEN people understand the science!

There's a thing here on MN for Robert Peston (someone I used to think was at least an honest journo). Somehow his utter hubris, arguing his home grown, uninformed version of epidemiology with an an actual epidemiologist, gets overlooked and peole like to believe him! He often gets the science very wrong... but rarely mistakes his audience!

Could anyone tell me when we will have concrete proof of whether the AZ vaccine works against the SA variant (or not)? Are there more trials being conducted now for example?

This thread is the very definition of doom scrolling.

Robert Peston began to be very disliked in the end by many posters on the Brexit threads - along with Laura K - for their 'we know something you plebs don't yet' attitudes.

@JaimeLeeCurtains

Robert Peston began to be very disliked in the end by many posters on the Brexit threads - along with Laura K - for their 'we know something you plebs don't yet' attitudes.

I wouldn't use the word plebs but yes, political journalists usually know things the rest of us don't yet!

That being the very point of their job - to find things out and tell those who don't know it yet.

It was the attitudes, not the knowing. LK was the smugger, mind you.

I quite like Peston in small doses.

It was the attitudes, not the knowing. LK was the smugger, mind you.

Riiiight.

@elprup

Could anyone tell me when we will have concrete proof of whether the AZ vaccine works against the SA variant (or not)? Are there more trials being conducted now for example?

That will depend on the outcome of the SA research. We don't have enough cases to make any meaningful decision.

Fortunately SA have great DNA sequencing etc.

That will take as long as it takes! But weeks at the very least. They are going as fast as they can!

I wouldn't use the word plebs but yes, political journalists usually know things the rest of us don't yet! Yes POLITICAL juornos. Not scientific ones.

Yet they both feel well qualified to argue black is white with scientists!

And another... female journo talking to Jeremy Vine... absolutely determined that we should have done as South Korea did!

Apparently, without the same geography, climate, societal mores, population density*, kind of government, past history of pandemics and technology built to manage it, we should have "just done as they did and we would all be back out in the pub now!"

Gaaaaaaargh!

*They have a higher population density which can make lockdowns easier in a practical level!

@AlecTrevelyan006

How many cases do we think South Africa has at the moment?

Sunday Times article today covers it:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/variant-what-co...

It's paywalled, but the key info is:

20,000 new cases per day one month ago.
4,000 new cases per day now.

1,600 deaths a day previously.
261 deaths last Friday.

No real vaccination coverage.
First person identified with SA variant wasn't 'Patient Zero', who could have been from elsewhere.
SA variant in 60 countries so not really 'the SA variant'.

Middle of January second wave saw 19% of tests positive.
Now 10.3% positive.

South Africa unlocking - reopening parks, rivers and beaches, easing alcohol sales ban, 9pm curfew pushed back to 11pm, restaurants allowed to serve wine..

Game reserves offering reductions of 90% but most (all?) flights to SA banned by the airlines.

Estimated 1.5m cases officially.
Studies of evidence suggest 6m or even 9m cases in reality.

45,000 official deaths.
Excess deaths seem to be 111-133k, so likely missed classifications.

Working back from the death numbers and the estimated cases, it could be 20m cases in all - 50% of the population.
= Herd Immunity?

I'm therefore finding it hard to be scared by this SA variant - if it burns itself out as we on here would expect (and has been shown in SA), we don't really need yet another vaccination for it.

I find it ridiculous that it seems we're going to end up getting battered by vaccines once? twice? three times per year?? alongside all the ingredients that are also in the vaccines.

It's just not normal and I find it hard to believe that even the most ardent 'pro-vaxxer' would think it was after living their lives to date with, at most, a yearly flu shot when they reach a certain (older) age.

You raise a very valid point Alec wrt herd immunity.

We are not a first world country and I am quite sure that many of our population have contracted the virus and also died from it, that do not show in our figures. We have very rural places and extreme poverty in some areas, locking down indoors is not even an option for some, never mind testing.

Our numbers have dropped even more as at yesterday 2435 positive cases and 110 deaths , there has not yet been one vaccination apart form those who were on the trials.

Lets hope we have weathered the storm, but we have been told to expect a third wave come winter. Which is a possibility due to mutation of the strains. We simply just cannot lockdown forever. Our economy cannot allow it any longer. We have restrictions, which if this figures are somewhat correct, must have played a part to the reduction.

I have to wonder if waiting 6 months for a tweaked vaccine is going to have any effect. Things are changing week to week, hopefully we are going to stay in the decline now, but I do also have to wonder if herd immunity is the driving factor right now.

Or, is the fact that most countries have banned all flights to and from SA contributing?

@Wherediditgo

Reading some of these replies, it seems to me that there is a big problem with journalists (who are scientists) translating science into headlines, which then get read by (mainly) non scientists.

Totally agree

"just done as they did and we would all be back out in the pub now!"

Not wrong though.

Reading some of these replies, it seems to me that there is a big problem with journalists (who are scientists) translating science into headlines, which then get read by (mainly) non scientists.

This has been a problem long before covid. It's what got us into the MMR/Autism mess.

@SandSeaBeach

Reading some of these replies, it seems to me that there is a big problem with journalists (who are scientists) translating science into headlines, which then get read by (mainly) non scientists.

^this.

Not to mention that 'scary' headlines will generate more clicks, and hence more ad revenue, than cautious headlines using words like 'might' or 'could'.

@MintyMabel

"just done as they did and we would all be back out in the pub now!"

Not wrong though.

Don't be glib. HOW???