When can we start to see the vaccine saving lives?

[notevenat20]

We are told 88% of covid deaths come from groups 1-4. Already 11 million of those have been vaccinated and pretty much all of them will have been done in a weeks time. Full protection comes in about 21 days after vaccination but there is some protection from about day 14. This is all to say, should we expect deaths to plummet this month? I am really hoping so.

Yes a professor from Oxford ( on bbc yesterday) said there was already data demonstrating that in the over 80s the vaccine is preventing deaths. Sorry haven't got the figures myself.

Full vaccination comes three months later though. So it might take a few more months before we see the real impact. Hopefully the first jab will start things on the right track.

Full vaccination comes three months later though. So it might take a few more months before we see the real impact.

This is incorrect. It’s the first vaccine that provides almost all of the protection. The second dose only adds another 2% of protection or something like that.

When we're out of lockdown.

At the moment Lockdown is doing all the heavy lifting.

Only 1% of the population is fully vaccinated. And we need about (at least?) 75% for herd immunity.

The first 4 JCVI groups are about 21%, but most of them are not expected to get their second jab until April.

Groups 5-9 may begin this month but then most of them will still be getting second jabs in the summertime. But once they're done that will take us to about 48%

Then it's on to the other half of the population.

Israel is seeing a reduction in hospitalisations and deaths in the vaccinated groups, but their hospitals are still full up and cases are still high. And they had about a third of their total covid deaths ever in January. (As did we)

Vaccines help enormously, but they are not the magical quick fix some seem to think they are.

I see a lot of of "There's be no justification for continued restrictions once the vulnerable are vaccinated " opinions on here and that's frankly, simplistic horseshit.

I think we’re already seeing at least a small impact of the vaccinations.

First vaccination 9 December
Positive cases peaked 29 December
Hospital admissions peaked 12 January
Deaths peaked 19 January

Three weeks ago just over 4 million people had received a vaccine - today it’s well over 10 million. I suspect by the end of the month the impact of the vaccination programme will be very noticeable and measurable

Really hoping to see a reduction in intensive care patients soon!

@PrincessNutNuts

When we're out of lockdown.

At the moment Lockdown is doing all the heavy lifting.

Only 1% of the population is fully vaccinated. And we need about (at least?) 75% for herd immunity.

The first 4 JCVI groups are about 21%, but most of them are not expected to get their second jab until April.

Groups 5-9 may begin this month but then most of them will still be getting second jabs in the summertime. But once they're done that will take us to about 48%

Then it's on to the other half of the population.

Israel is seeing a reduction in hospitalisations and deaths in the vaccinated groups, but their hospitals are still full up and cases are still high. And they had about a third of their total covid deaths ever in January. (As did we)

Vaccines help enormously, but they are not the magical quick fix some seem to think they are.

I see a lot of of "There's be no justification for continued restrictions once the vulnerable are vaccinated " opinions on here and that's frankly, simplistic horseshit.

The first dose alone will have a massive impact on hospitalisations and deaths

Yes of course everyone will need a second dose but the first dose alone is very effective in the mean time

As a pp said the first dose provides the majority of the protection. Why do people seem intent on denying this?

I think this is the month where we should see cases in vulnerable / older groups decline but remember there is a lag between someone catching COVID and dying from it. Therefore, I expect deaths to noticeably reduce next month

However, I think there will still be a wait before we see the impact on hospital numbers (although lockdown is already helping here). A lot of hospital admissions is in the younger group. Plus a lot of older people wouldn’t be suitable for the most invasive treatments meaning they won’t be in hospital for as long as the younger group, using up a bed

The impact on hospitalisations is beginning to show - didn't the graphs show distinct decline in the numbers admitted from the age groups most likely to be been vaccinated?

Overall though, the numbers are also coming down because of lockdown (down from over 60,000 new cases to 20,000) so it's not just the vaccine - and of course the numbers are still far too high and the hospitals are still full.

And of course it takes about three weeks for the level of immunity to reach useful levels, so only those done before about mid January will have one-shot level of protection. Second jabs will start falling due from the end of March, so full vaccine protection. from mid-April only.

8 March (earliest school return day) is around 3 weeks after the target date for completion of the first 4 priorities. So it does seem there is considerable hope that there will be a discernible effect by then.

@StealthPolarBear

As a pp said the first dose provides the majority of the protection. Why do people seem intent on denying this?

No-one's denying it as such. And we all hope very much that the expected level of one-shot protection does indeed come to pass.

But the full course is two shots, for both reinforcement and for longevity. That is fact, and the differences between what will follow during the period when the majority have received a single shot are important.

it matters at both personal and population level.

@Dongdingdong

Full vaccination comes three months later though. So it might take a few more months before we see the real impact.

This is incorrect. It’s the first vaccine that provides almost all of the protection. The second dose only adds another 2% of protection or something like that.

This is totally incorrect.

The first vaccine has just over 50% efficacy. For the Oxford vaccine, the second vaccine pushes it up to nearly 90%. For Pfizer, the second vaccine given on the correct schedule gives it over 95% efficacy.

People who have only had one vaccine are NOT fully protected.

OP, it will probably be hard to see the impact of vaccination in the total death figures, because they are coming down due to cases coming down. We would need a break down of deaths by age group to really see the impact. Don't forget there is also a 3 week lag before people develop any immunity, so it will take a while to see the impact in the figures.

Correct @NiceViper but that wasn’t the question. The question was when will the vaccine start to have an impact on the hospitalisations and deaths. And the answer is soon, that won’t need to wait until after the second dose.

@AlecTrevelyan006

I think we’re already seeing at least a small impact of the vaccinations.

First vaccination 9 December
Positive cases peaked 29 December
Hospital admissions peaked 12 January
Deaths peaked 19 January

Three weeks ago just over 4 million people had received a vaccine - today it’s well over 10 million. I suspect by the end of the month the impact of the vaccination programme will be very noticeable and measurable

The whole country was already under the Tier restrictions in December after a November Lockdown.

The kids were off school from mid-December.

The South East went into the newly invented Tier 4 in December 20th.

Half the country was in Tier 4 from Boxing Day.

The whole country was on Lockdown from January 5th.

And the children are still off school.

I'd bet money that a couple of months of restrictions is creating the effect you talk about. Not a couple of months of vaccinations.

If they open up tomorrow cases will start to climb again. And in due course, hospitalisations and deaths.

We've currently got similar case numbers to mid December, but we need case numbers that look like August.

We've got death numbers that look like early January, when we need them to look like August.

I know we all want to see green shoots, but I don't see them yet.

There are early hints that we're already seeing an impact on case numbers:

There are absolutely green shoots.

For 7 day average by date reported:

• Cases down 26.5% ↓

• Patients admitted to hospital down 20.8% ↓

• Deaths down 17.8% ↓

• Vaccinations up 23% ↑

Sorry, that posted before I was done!

Link showing hints of an impact on case numbers (second graph):

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1356280376717680647?fbclid=IwAR0B2A-atSgakOIsE0iP9XzIsziXLLzAUE3tOb8tvZPPfyr1UdFL3Wru1o4

The impact on admissions and deaths will follow in two or three weeks.

Israel is seeing very significant impacts:

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715630980534275

We are, of course, significantly behind them. But making good progress.

I think we're already starting to see the effects. I hope the downward slope continues and we can all be out of this hell soon.

@StealthPolarBear

As a pp said the first dose provides the majority of the protection. Why do people seem intent on denying this?

Can you define what you mean by majority here?

Because yes, over 50% of the protection is the majority, but there's a big difference between 52.4% (first Pfizer dose as reported from Israel) and 95% (as reported from Pfizer clinical trials after 2 doses).

@PrincessNutNuts

That’s why I said “I think we’re already seeing at least a small impact of the vaccinations.”

Rather than “all the decrease in cases, hospitalisation and deaths is due to the vaccinations”

@StealthPolarBear

As a pp said the first dose provides the majority of the protection. Why do people seem intent on denying this?

That first dose protection % varies wildly between the vaccines themselves, the age groups, and different studies.

Nowhere in the world but here do people try to tell you that one dose of a two dose vaccine means you're "vaccinated".

I've got no patience with such dangerous counter-factual bullshit.

[quote AlecTrevelyan006]@PrincessNutNuts

That’s why I said “I think we’re already seeing at least a small impact of the vaccinations.”

Rather than “all the decrease in cases, hospitalisation and deaths is due to the vaccinations”[/quote]
Point taken.

March/April will be the turning point as we'll be out of winter, there'll still be restrictions, we'd have cleared the lag from the disastrous December policies and the vaccines will be making an impact.

I'd imagine by the end of February cases will be in the low thousands and deaths in the low hundreds. We could be in the position by April/May where cases are up due to schools and some other things opening up but deaths are in the tens rather than hundreds.

The people dying now got covid about 4 weeks ago.
About 4 weeks ago, very few people had been vaccinated yet.
Plus it takes about 3 weeks for immune response to develop.
Only about 3.5 weeks ago, just ~ 35% of the over 80s had been jabbed.
In 1-3 weeks?, in theory, the curve should be obviously going down faster.

Cases are already more than three quarters down than a month ago when we started lockdown. The restrictions are working, we're just still dealing with the fallout of the epic failures made in December by the government.