When can we start to see the vaccine saving lives?

[notevenat20]

We are told 88% of covid deaths come from groups 1-4. Already 11 million of those have been vaccinated and pretty much all of them will have been done in a weeks time. Full protection comes in about 21 days after vaccination but there is some protection from about day 14. This is all to say, should we expect deaths to plummet this month? I am really hoping so.

You’ve left out most of the rest of the second paragraph which reads:

“We see that immediately after the second dose the effectiveness jumps”, said Prof Aran on Twitter, adding that this could be explained by either the immediate impact of the second dose or the first dose coincidentally becoming effective on the three-week mark. “We will have to wait and see numbers from the UK”, he said.

@gypsywater

It certainly sounds like people are perhaps being told different things by different people.

So far so normal!

I’d recommend taking your advice from the MHRA and the JCVI. There has been so much misinformation and the official messaging from PHE has been less than helpful.

Just saw this- amazing data from Israel

Brilliant graph❤

@WiseUpJanetWeiss

You’ve left out most of the rest of the second paragraph which reads:

“We see that immediately after the second dose the effectiveness jumps”, said Prof Aran on Twitter, adding that this could be explained by either the immediate impact of the second dose or the first dose coincidentally becoming effective on the three-week mark. “We will have to wait and see numbers from the UK”, he said.

😉❤

@WiseUpJanetWeiss

You’ve left out most of the rest of the second paragraph which reads:

“We see that immediately after the second dose the effectiveness jumps”, said Prof Aran on Twitter, adding that this could be explained by either the immediate impact of the second dose or the first dose coincidentally becoming effective on the three-week mark. “We will have to wait and see numbers from the UK”, he said.

The salient point being that we don't know.

Not even you Princess?

The dates aren't terribly clear on the axis, but it looks as if the rates started dropping 2 weeks after second vaccinations took place, and the substantial drops after that. So that could go either way (with rapid vaccination, especially with rapid vaccination when even the initial recipients are a very large group of people)

The data they will be looking for is whether our rates drop much on one jab. There are distinctly promising signs, but it is wait and see.

The expected level of protection from one shot could well make an enormous difference.

(Second shots will start at pace in March, numbers moving up,a little every day, presumably with end-of-day shots or others done deliberately at different interval)

10% of the population have been vaccinated not 1%

That first dose protection % varies wildly between the vaccines themselves, the age groups, and different studies

Nowhere in the world but here do people try to tell you that one dose of a two dose vaccine means you're "vaccinated"

I've got no patience with such dangerous counter-factual bullshit

Me neither which is why it pisses me off that you don’t understand that whilst one vaccination isn’t a full course, it is enough to prevent serious illness/hospitalisation/death in the majority of people.

@tobee

Not even you Princess?

The salient point being that we don't know.

Well, quite. Yet your post left out that salient point.

Why cherrypick, when the quotation in context is more informative?

@tobee

Not even you Princess?

Nobody knows.

It's all a massively risky experiment with our lives.

The U.K. isn't administering the vaccines properly, and Israel is - so we have no idea when or if we'll see the results they are seeing.

All we know is, two months in. We aren't, yet.

Maybe we would if we started giving those second doses out earlier than 12 weeks... but our government won't do that. It threatens to take vaccinator licences away from GPs who do.

@Wherediditgo

That first dose protection % varies wildly between the vaccines themselves, the age groups, and different studies

Nowhere in the world but here do people try to tell you that one dose of a two dose vaccine means you're "vaccinated"

I've got no patience with such dangerous counter-factual bullshit

Me neither which is why it pisses me off that you don’t understand that whilst one vaccination isn’t a full course, it is enough to prevent serious illness/hospitalisation/death in the majority of people.

We don't know that in the cohort we're currently vaccinating because there is such limited data on these age groups.

And nobody else is delaying the second dose for months.

And the real world's always different.

Meanwhile, there are a lot more of the older generation out and about, have you noticed.

And there are "vaccinated" people in hospital,

And outbreaks in "vaccinated" care homes.

@gypsywater

It certainly sounds like people are perhaps being told different things by different people.

Auntie was told she is not protected until after she has had the second one. And I approve of this message.

@PrincessNutNuts that graph is unhelpful.

The X axis is labelled "days from peak cases". It doesn't give a date for that, but worldometre suggests Jan 9th as the peak. Lets go with that. The down slope of the graph therefore runs to the 1st Feb.

It takes 2-3 weeks for the vaccine to kick in. It takes a further 1-2 weeks for cases to be diagnosed. So there's a lag of 3-4 weeks between vaccinating someone and seeing cases drop. For the impact of the vaccine to show on a slope running from Jan 9th to Feb 1st, the 80+ cohort must have had their jab in the first three or four days of January at the latest. Even then, we'd only see the impact in the last day or two of the graph.

Data at coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations shows that 1,375,417 people had had their first dose by third Jan. There are 3.3 million people in the 80+ group alone. There are best part of 8 million in the top two priority groups, to whom the vaccine was being rolled out then.

Of course this graph doesn't show any difference between under 80s and 80 plus. We simply hadn't vaccinated enough of them early enough for it to show in the January case numbers, which is what this graph shows.

Give it another month and I would expect a very different picture.

@AlecTrevelyan006

I think we’re already seeing at least a small impact of the vaccinations.

First vaccination 9 December
Positive cases peaked 29 December
Hospital admissions peaked 12 January
Deaths peaked 19 January

Three weeks ago just over 4 million people had received a vaccine - today it’s well over 10 million. I suspect by the end of the month the impact of the vaccination programme will be very noticeable and measurable

Pretty sure that's more to do with the lockdown than the vaccine.

@Eyjafjallajokulldottir

Hmm I think I'll believe the nurse rather than some random on the Internet thanks all the same

But she probably just read it from some random on the internet.

Well, I for one, think that a poster called ‘Princess NutNuts’ is sure to be an intelligent and educated person to be trusted and believed 😂

We need to keep a close eye on what is happening in care homes.

NI care homes are mostly being vaccinated with Pfizer/Biontech and are doing the second dose.

English care homes seem to mostly do AZ, 12 weeks apart.

In a couple of weeks we can see whether there is a substantial difference in death rates between the two sets of care homes.

PHE should be publishing data on vaccine impact as early as next week: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/its-official-delaying-second-dose-of-covid-vaccine-saves-lives-vqp70xn3l?shareToken=573d30d00c6c6e35bbf32bfbb20f8ed4

@Brunt0n

Well, I for one, think that a poster called ‘Princess NutNuts’ is sure to be an intelligent and educated person to be trusted and believed 😂

That’s Dr Princess NutNuts to you

Oh gosh it’s @PrincessNutNuts again. Coming in with her selective titbits and what her ‘auntie’ was told.

@NiceViper

The dates aren't terribly clear on the axis, but it looks as if the rates started dropping 2 weeks after second vaccinations took place, and the substantial drops after that. So that could go either way (with rapid vaccination, especially with rapid vaccination when even the initial recipients are a very large group of people)

The data they will be looking for is whether our rates drop much on one jab. There are distinctly promising signs, but it is wait and see.

The expected level of protection from one shot could well make an enormous difference.

(Second shots will start at pace in March, numbers moving up,a little every day, presumably with end-of-day shots or others done deliberately at different interval)

I thought that it looked like the rates in the vaccinated group may have already been plateauing before the second dose started being administered. In any case, I guess we'll find out soon whether the UKs '1 shot for more people' policy will pay off but I totally understand and support the rationale behind it

Did anyone watch Sarah Gilbert on Marr this morning? She is better to listen to than @PrincessNutNuts’s auntie.

• AZ vaccine works against Kent strain
• less efficacious against South Africa and Brazilian strains - but they are working on a booster now for the autumn against those strains
• 12 week gap for AZ gives greater level of immunity than a shorter gap
• she is not involved in Pfizer but says she is confident a 12 week gap will be fine - your immunity doesn’t fall off a cliff at 3 weeks - but they are still getting the data
• they are testing giving two different types of jab and they suspect that may give a more robust immunological response