When can we start to see the vaccine saving lives?

[notevenat20]

We are told 88% of covid deaths come from groups 1-4. Already 11 million of those have been vaccinated and pretty much all of them will have been done in a weeks time. Full protection comes in about 21 days after vaccination but there is some protection from about day 14. This is all to say, should we expect deaths to plummet this month? I am really hoping so.

Right now, deaths and hospital numbers are coming down, but so are infections. Its not clear if the lockdown is having the effect (the vulnerable groups aren't being exposed to covid) or if its the vaccine (they are being exposed but not getting sick/dying).

Yes, there is not enough data to know yet. There should be soon though.
mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1358016395276136450

@Monkeytennis97

I guess we need to look to Israel who are further along than us. Any latest stats from Israel?

mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528?s=20

We expect that the impact of a successful vaccination programme will be most obvious in the hospitalisation and deaths data, with material reductions in hospitalisation starting from mid-February and reported deaths in early March. The impact on cases is expected to be seen sooner, but the reduction is likely to be smaller.

www.covid-arg.com/post/how-soon-to-see-the-vaccine-s-benefits

The best evidence for one dose protection comes from the Johnson and Johnson one dose vaccine. It’s around 65-75% depending on the variant.
No doubt if you boosted it with a second dose protection would go up. However if that’s the jab you get as a single dose you’ll be deemed “fully protected”. Lots of vaccines for various disease are single dose. Of course a booster gives better protection but they are often given when immunity is wearing off. I would think big impacts will be seen after one dose but it will take time. 3 weeks for vaccine and then time for decrease in hospitalisation and then death. They will be waiting to see a difference in rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated rate I think.

Two people in their eighties that I know of have died since having both jabs. Both had terminal illnesses and both contracted Covid when they had been in hospital for several days. Neither had Covid symptoms. Both had Covid on their death certificates.

The first vaccine has just over 50% efficacy.

@SansaSnark please stop spreading misinformation. I see other posters have since corrected you.

@Dongdingdong

The first vaccine has just over 50% efficacy.

@SansaSnark please stop spreading misinformation. I see other posters have since corrected you.

So I shouldn't believe the hcp who gave me the jab and told me the same thing?

So I shouldn't believe the hcp who gave me the jab and told me the same thing?

Two options. Either you misheard them or they are wrong. Maybe they were referring to after a small number of days from the first dose? But in any case it just isn't true. You can just look it up to see. It's important that we don't add to everyone's real suffering with fake bad news.

Hmm I think I'll believe the nurse rather than some random on the Internet thanks all the same

Someone on fb posted about their family dying, after having received just the first jab (caught covid in the hospital). So I am sceptical about how many are convinced the first dose provides strong immunisation and looking on twitter, others know of similar cases. It’s so sad

Sorry meant to clarify they passed after having caught covid in the hospital, (not from the jab itself), but had received it prior to getting ill with covid.

@Eyjafjallajokulldottir

Hmm I think I'll believe the nurse rather than some random on the Internet thanks all the same

You could actually research it yourself and not blindly believe anyone?

Lack of data from the phase 3 vaccine trials on older age groups (due to small numbers of participants) does however mean that there is some uncertainty about efficacy in the older population. You cannot necessarily apply the same efficacy across all age groups (and obviously it is the older age groups who were/are getting vaccinated first). For example there are suggestions from a small (in terms of numbers of samples) lab study that people over 80 would benefit more from having the second dose at 3 weeks, rather than waiting for 12 weeks. (Vaccines possibly having lower efficacy in older age groups is not a surprise or anything new of course).

mobile.twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1355283902202523653

@Eyjafjallajokulldottir

Hmm I think I'll believe the nurse rather than some random on the Internet thanks all the same

You think nurses are immune to misinformation? Or that they have access to more accurate research than that which you can find online yourself?

Above refers to the Pfizer vaccine obviously, although the lack of data applies to the AstraZeneca too.

The UK has vaccinated 85% of the population aged over 75 and that age group has accounted for 75% of COVID deaths. We should see the death toll start to come down soon even if the first vaccination only gives 'partial' protection.

If as a previous poster implied that there is not enough data to assume efficacy in that age group... that should become abundant clear pretty quickly and would mean that all of the vaccination decisions made so far were built on sand... let's hope not!!

@Eyjafjallajokulldottir

Hmm I think I'll believe the nurse rather than some random on the Internet thanks all the same

Almost certainly not a nurse. Almost certainly a vaccinator with limited online training.

In any event, the information they gave you was inconsistent with the published evidence. The really good news is your protection is likely much better.

I don't blame the vaccinator, by the way, for this. My GP friend hasn't read the research, because she's been overwhelmingly busy with things like rolling out a vaccine programme.

Anyway, the evidence is out there (some of it linked to in this thread) so you can of course read the published research and make up your own mind.

the nurse who gave me the vaccination said the first dose pfizer gave 89% immunity after a few weeks, and i just read that reiterated in the newspaper after a study from East Anglia,
it all depends on how you interpret the results.

Would be very surprised if all category 4 done in a week. DH has not been offered an appointment yet and he is category 4.

@Eyjafjallajokulldottir

Hmm I think I'll believe the nurse rather than some random on the Internet thanks all the same

Of course not, but you could look at fig. 7 on p33 of the official public assessment report, and read the text around it.

Here, sorry...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/944544/COVID-19_mRNA_Vaccine_BNT162b2__UKPAR___PFIZER_BIONTECH__15Dec2020.pdf

I had the vaccine three weeks ago (NHS clinician). Pfizer. Told during vaccine to expect between 65-85% immunity from first dose. Going up to 95% with second dose in three months. So not amazing but way better than nothing!

(Vaccinator was a registered nurse before someone asks)

It certainly sounds like people are perhaps being told different things by different people.

*However, the results also suggest the first dose of the vaccine may not be “very effective” in reducing cases. This raises a possible concern over the UK strategy of leaving 12 weeks between shots, rather than the three weeks recommended by Pfizer.
“We see that immediately after the second dose the effectiveness jumps”, *

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/magic-has-started-early-data-show-israels-vaccination-campaign/amp/