So much for 'This too shall pass'....

[ssd]

How many times have I read that on mn?

Except its not passing, is it

It baffles me how people can be so negative, especially with all the positive news coming out at the moment.
Why are some people so convinced things will get worse?
Evidence is showing that the vaccines are protecting against the new strains, there is no evidence that any of the new strains are more deadly. There is as much chance that they will mutate to be less transmissable or deadly.
Vaccinations up, cases down, deaths down, positive news about vaccinations stopping spread, and antibodies present for at least 6 months after infection.
Yet the doom mongers predict it getting worse?
OK, it may happen, but all the signs are pointing against it.

@AuntyClementine

Exactly my thoughts on the matter. Easy to point the finger at those pesky, virus-spreading peasants that trail through B&M!

Our Range has an Iceland inside. I was raised by a single parent, on very little income, and Iceland, being so cheap, was a lifesaver for us. That's why I don't sniff at places like that staying open.

please link please

"But if I have to see one more of those wanky ink drawings with the stupid fucking horse and meaningless word salad, I’ll scream."

@lifeonhardmodept2 -I think it is unfeasible to pursue a zero-Covid strategy because basically you cannot, should not, put the lives of citizens on hold for any longer than you have to. Already, after a year, the economy is in tatters. We are not a self-sufficient country because we produce next to nothing, our economy for the most part is based on a service industry. Sadly, although many will argue otherwise no doubt, you need to have a functioning economy to support health, education and now furlough.

How would you propose pursuing a zero Covid strategy - what would that look like in practice? Would it be lock down until there were no cases? How would that be achieved? Again, not being difficult but I can't see how it could work in a country as densely populated as ours.

So there is no answer as to how countries like NZ and Australia can ever open up to international travel again. The only people for whom it is practical to do a two-week hotel quarantine are returning nationals. So are these countries forever closed to visitors/tourists? I know they are held up as the beacons of having done it right, but these seems like a HUGE deal to me

They have said they will open to up to regular tourism (probably that means people can come in if they are vaccinated) from 2022. I don't think the idea is literally Zero COVID long term---the idea seems to be that you vaccinate your own population and then treat COVID19 as a notifiable disease, meaning that you take action and close down any clusters when they appear (same as they do right now for rotavirus, measles and the like).

@Emilyontmoor

SeriouslyMole You don’t understand what a virus suppression strategy is. As lots of countries have shown if you have effective test track and quarantine logistics, individuals take infection control (masks, social distance, hygiene ) seriously and control who is coming into the country then you suppress the virus and protect your economy. It may damage tourist industries but it enables the rest of the economy to continue. Taiwan’s economy barely faltered and is now growing, and they have had just 7 deaths. It is like a leaky sieve, no one virus suppression strategy is 100% effective but put together they demonstrably work.

Having an effective test trace and isolate system means that fewer people’s lives are affected because you bring infections down. We had the resources to do that, and still have but the government did something nowhere else in the world did except the USA, they sidelined the public health resource and instead directed all the funding to cronies who have manifested their inexperience in test, trace and quarantine processes that never worked effectively and failed to enable people to isolate . Only 20%, and declining, isolate even if they get tested. Hence the sky high infection rates and high death rates, and putting the onus on us as the public to control the virus by closing our lives down with all the adverse effects on the economy and mental and physical health.

It has also allowed the virus the perfect environment in which to mutate.

This is a pandemic, it was never going to be easy but we could do so much better if the government focused on funding our public health experts to use their expertise to deliver effective testing and tracing and to enable people to isolate. We still could.

You're probably right, I don't understand a lot at the moment, and thank you for your coherent post.

@SausagePourHomme

The fact that there are variants is not surprising or novel. All viruses do this. They are treating them with an abundance of caution. Don't forget that variants can be less dangerous. It could evolve into a milder form

I was about to write something similar. The media loves scary headlines because those articles get more clicks.

I just want life to get back to normal let’s get the vulnerable vaccinated so we can open society up again. It’s difficult to stay optimistic when the government has been saying “just 4 more weeks.” It’s been a year.

I have to admit I felt like this yesterday but I’ve just read an article from Saturday’s Financial Times that did the maths, look towards the end of February and March, that is when the vaccine roll out will have an impact. Today I am hopeful.

@Exhausteddog

*You're right - B&M is the sole cause of this mess.

As is The Range*

MN is blinkin obsessed with B and M ! It's the scapegoat every time.
It sells food, toiletries, san pro, cleaning items, toilet rolls...all if which I consider essential. Why shouldn't it be open?

because it's for poor people silly. those feckless, football shirted covidiots who just won't stay at home and await their ocado order like the rest of us

Seriously I think the issue is that the government has been happy to let this false link between virus suppression and economic damage go unchallenged to deflect from their failures in implementing an effective test trace and isolate strategy which would have enabled us to avoid these long deep damaging lockdowns. . Taiwan has 51 m people, 7m in densely populated Teipei (the population of Manchester), Hong Kong is in reality part of the Pearl River conurbation, the largest and most highly and densely populated urban area in the world with high connectivity with the second largest economy and a billion people. I don’t propose over the border in China as a model for anything but Hong Kong has succeeded in suppressing three waves now (the last two with U.K. virus RNA) even with those connections. And whilst in both places the quarantine might be seen as an infringement of liberties it affects so few people that even those it does affect (including the westerners ) willingly comply because they see the benefits. I get the same vibe from Aussie friends though they have more of the right wing fringe protesters.

I read a piece on what a “zero covid” strategy would look like to be successful.

It would be everyone in their homes for six weeks with a stock of food and water. It would be no going out at all. No deliveries. And no medical treatment - not for cancer, not for a heart attack.

This would be the only way to wipe it out. I can’t imagine too many people would sign up for this.

@IrmaFayLear

I read a piece on what a “zero covid” strategy would look like to be successful.

It would be everyone in their homes for six weeks with a stock of food and water. It would be no going out at all. No deliveries. And no medical treatment - not for cancer, not for a heart attack.

This would be the only way to wipe it out. I can’t imagine too many people would sign up for this.

Hideous.

The other benefit of course is that if we have effective test trace and isolate strategies in place they are there for future pandemics even after we kick this one into touch. When we experienced SARS in Asia we were left under no illusions that this was not the big one and others would be along. This was predicted. This one in some ways has not been as bad as it could have been. SARS and MERS killed a higher proportion of patients but were thankfully less infectious....

I am not being a doom merchant, I do think this will pass but the countries that experienced SARS were the best prepared and have suppressed this virus and been less badly affected. This government has not let a lesson go learned from, but the big lesson is that we do need to be prepared for future pandemics.

Thewiseoneincognito

You again? Feckin twit.

I read a piece on what a “zero covid” strategy would look like to be successful

It would be everyone in their homes for six weeks with a stock of food and water. It would be no going out at all. No deliveries. And no medical treatment - not for cancer, not for a heart attack

What happens if you can’t afford 6 weeks of food or don’t have a refrigerator/freezer big enough.
It is a terrible suggestion. No healthcare for those on dire need. Leaving families to live with a decaying body, unable to bury their loved ones who have died or starving to death because they can’t afford food to last them.
The cure would be worse than the disease.

*It would be everyone in their homes for six weeks with a stock of food and water. It would be no going out at all. No deliveries. And no medical treatment - not for cancer, not for a heart attack.

This would be the only way to wipe it out. I can’t imagine too many people would sign up for this.* Absolute and utter ignorant bollocks, but they got you going didn’t they?

The all party parliamentary group listened to scores of witnesses and experts in order to learn the lessons and has developed a strategy. It all centres in taking the emphasis away from lockdown to effective test trace and isolate.

Sorry mucked that post up so I am going to do it again

Irma *It would be everyone in their homes for six weeks with a stock of food and water. It would be no going out at all. No deliveries. And no medical treatment - not for cancer, not for a heart attack.

This would be the only way to wipe it out. I can’t imagine too many people would sign up for this.*

Complete and utter bollocks. Reference please so we can assess which idiot came out with it?

Zero covid means zero NHS. We need people spending and working to support public services.

Agh! Phone misbehaving....

Zero covid means zero NHS. We need people spending and working to support public services

You mean like in Australia where my niece is working as normal in paediatrics, and then going out and meeting friends and spending money in the open bars and restaurants. Zero Covid means an open economy. Our governments botched response has meant maximum deaths and maximum economic damage. We are in lockdown because we did not pursue a zero Covid strategy.

It was a total misconception to assume hard, fast lockdown mean killing the economy. Back to normal much more quickly.

@Emilyontmoor

Zero covid means zero NHS. We need people spending and working to support public services

You mean like in Australia where my niece is working as normal in paediatrics, and then going out and meeting friends and spending money in the open bars and restaurants. Zero Covid means an open economy. Our governments botched response has meant maximum deaths and maximum economic damage. We are in lockdown because we did not pursue a zero Covid strategy.

Agree.

@Lifeinaonesie

Zero covid means zero NHS. We need people spending and working to support public services.

You can't outrun a virus. Containment should have been the priority from the beginning.

@Emilyontmoor

Zero covid means zero NHS. We need people spending and working to support public services

You mean like in Australia where my niece is working as normal in paediatrics, and then going out and meeting friends and spending money in the open bars and restaurants. Zero Covid means an open economy. Our governments botched response has meant maximum deaths and maximum economic damage. We are in lockdown because we did not pursue a zero Covid strategy.

But we aren't Australia, maybe that was possible early on but we've been through a year of this. Our economy is already ruined. We also have Brexit bubbling away under all of this. We can't afford to spend months inside getting rid of a virus that doesn't actually impact most people, particular when cev and CV are vaccinated. It only takes one person getting off a plane/boat with it to infect the entire country again. We have to learn to accept the fact that it's a virus that's out there and probably always will be. Some people will continue to die from it.

@DfEisashambles

If the gov’t had have contained it properly there wouldn’t be so many mutations. It will pass though after thousands of unnecessary deaths.

OFGS just like every other country and every other Government ?