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SAGE are sooo depressing

102 replies

RosieLemonade · 02/02/2021 09:46

They would love lockdown to last forever I am sure. Every glimmer of hope they dash.

OP posts:
knittingaddict · 02/02/2021 11:33

@Kljnmw3459

i'm all confused about the conflicting information coming in. on the one hand vaccinations are rolling out well, cases are going down. Hospitalisations and deaths will soon follow. But then there are these new variants. Surely the lockdown at this point will help keep those numbers down and in a couple of months enough people will have been vaccinated that we won't have an unmanageable rise in hospital cases and deaths?? regardless of how many variants there are??
Because two things can be true at once.

It's great news that cases are going down and vaccines will help further with that, but it's also true that mutating variants are a risk. Some variants may need us to be even more careful and that's why they are reported in the news.

The government and scientists are treating us like adults when they tell us what is happening. I just hope some people, who haven't taken this seriously, will therefore act like adults and be sensible about taking precautions.

knittingaddict · 02/02/2021 11:40

Rosie your op was ridiculous, by the way. Who is "they"? I can say with almost 100% certainty that no one wants lockdown to continue indefinitely. No government, no scientist, no member of the public. No one.

justwanttoknow21 · 02/02/2021 11:40

@OhWhyNot I don't think OP is suggesting anything different.

She just came on to have a bit of a vent I think.

IcedPurple · 02/02/2021 11:44

@MaxNormal

Their advice is based on the science. Suck it up buttercup.

Why the rudeness? If you spoke to people like that in real life you'd get a smack.

I agree. Some obnoxious comments here.

As for SAGE, not sure I agree with them being all that depressing. Also, you have to remember that it's in the nature of scientists to be caurious and that they have a pretty narrow remit. Obviously, from a purely 'science' point of view, the more restrictions the better. However the govt, and it's them, not SAGE, who make the decisions, have to balance 'the science' with the economy, education people's willingness to comply and all sorts of other things. So rightly or wrongly, what SAGE wants, SAGE doesn't neccessarily get.

MadameBlobby · 02/02/2021 11:48

I find SAGE ridiculous. Sitting pretty in secure jobs having had the benefit of full educations and now seeking to keep measures going indefinitely that will prevent the majority of society enjoying the privileges they do.

Haffiana · 02/02/2021 11:54

@MadameBlobby

I find SAGE ridiculous. Sitting pretty in secure jobs having had the benefit of full educations and now seeking to keep measures going indefinitely that will prevent the majority of society enjoying the privileges they do.
Yeah, but you just hate everyone richer than you, don't you?
bluebellscorner · 02/02/2021 11:55

Regarding SAGE and science, they are modelling scenarios and issuing their guidance on the basis of this, but these models aren’t God given. There are different ways to build these models, and it also depends on the data they input into the models. So there isn’t just one ‘science’ that we should all respect and follow, other scientists might construct their models differently and might also interpret and use the data in other ways, and hence come to different conclusions.

Also, they only look at the epidemiological side. All governments need to listen to their scientific advisors and then look at the bigger picture - the economy, the impact on non covid-related healthcare, education etc etc - and then make their decision. Sage is just one part of the equation and I personally feel that we hear a lot from them in the news, and far less about the other aspects and how everything has to come together to create a sustainable path forward

OliveTree75 · 02/02/2021 11:56

@Ethelfromnumber73

Their advice is based on the science. Suck it up buttercup.
How rude
AuntyClementine · 02/02/2021 11:56

They’re depressing because it is depressing. They’re just doing their job and advising the government on the science. It’s the governments job to balance that against the competing priorities of education, the economy, etc.

Fridget · 02/02/2021 11:56

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

‘Would love lockdown to last forever’

Why do people think this? Everyone bloody hates lockdown. Hates hates hates it. But because they follow the science or show the slightest degree of caution, they would like lockdown to last forever! Why do people think this?

Better a lockdown than lots more deaths.

I think a legitimate concern is the whole focus is on covid and covid deaths but there is little publicity about lockdown deaths, the majority of which will occur in the long term but do matter. So “better a lockdown than lots more deaths” isn’t quite accurate because lockdown itself will cause lots of deaths, in addition to poverty, misery, breakdown of fabric of society and loads more evils, but that’s not really the message in the mainstream media.

In fairness to SAGE I’m sure they answer the questions they’re asked and probably are discussing this in private - I hope so anyway.

I support the lockdown at the moment but want the narrative to focus on all of the issues and an honest discussion of the point at which we say we cannot justify lockdown any more. So when all people talk about it covid and suppressing it, and not acknowledging that at some point we will need to decide to accept some level of people will die of covid, it doesn’t present a very balanced picture.

I’m sick of people thinking covid itself is the only risk. Lockdown is a very big risk to public health, as SAGE well know, and we need to hear more about it.

IcedPurple · 02/02/2021 11:57

*I had a long talk with a relative who is a consultant. She is very upset with the public health communication from the government and media. She asked how often were people two years ago asking: which manufacturer made this flu vaccine, which strains are in it, how many variants of flu developed in the past 12 months, etc? Virtually none! Viruses mutate, they always have and always will.

She is very concerned that the emphasis on the downside and an overload of information that the average person can’t understand is going to discourage vaccine take up among younger cohorts, and lead many to simply tune out important info because they can’t handle the negativity.

Who is benefitting from this constant talk of variants and why as you say is it all being pushed so hard right now? In my view it’s done the opposite of making people more vigilant, if anything it’s turned many quite nihilist.*

Agree with all of this. On the one hand it's great that we live in an age where so much information is readily available to all. O the other hand the constant stream of news - often hyped - leads to anxiety and stress.

A year ago, many people barely knew the difference between a virus and a bacteria. 3 months ago, none of us knew what 'variants' were unless maybe talking about different types of latte in Starbucks. Oatmilk or salted caramel? Now it's all doom and gloom about the Kent strain or the South African variant or the Brazil mutation. Not saying there isn't cause for concern but as you say, mutations are inevitable with all viruses.

And of course I'm a part of the problem, given all the time I spend here on on similar discussions. I do wonder how this would have all played out 50 years ago.

Hrpuffnstuff1 · 02/02/2021 11:58

@frozendaisy

Are SAGE depressing? Or is it gutter press articles spinning it that way because their offshore non-tax paying owners have commercial property portfolios and want everyone back in city centres earning them more and more and more money?
Those commercial property portfolios are connected to investments, future's, capital expenditure's and pensions, private and sovereign. We all benefit.

The concept of money and what it is and does is lost in translation somewhere..

Back to SAGE, scientists just talk science, often this comes across as analytical and non nuanced, very dry.

bluebellscorner · 02/02/2021 11:59

100% agree with @Fridget This is what I was trying to express in my post but you put it better

mac12 · 02/02/2021 12:05

Nobody thinks covid are the only deaths. At present there is v little evidence of excess deaths due to lockdown - this is clear from ONS excess death reporting. However, the economic fall out & delayed health interventions as a result of covid will kill many many people. This isn’t down to lockdown, it’s down to Covid.

ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia · 02/02/2021 12:09

My no expert understanding is:

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies provide the latest science as accurately as possible so basically saying it as it really is so raw with evidence based data undiluted. They include much worst case modelling as well as a range of hopeful societal outcomes if a varying degree of the collective behavioural expectations are carried out in whole, moderated or ignored.

The political leadership take this scientific advice into account and then blend with political and economic advice to come up with guidelines with necessary emergency criminal legislation.

The public then mostly follow the political guidelines with some Covidiots seemingly doing their own things and hence local super mutual spreading etc etc and the forever perpetual cycles of quasi lockdowns doom and gloom with short termism entitlement selfishness behaviour over joined up strategic long term pandemic containment and eradication policies and collective civic duty of care behaviours and expectations.

GrumblyMumblyisnotJumbly · 02/02/2021 12:10

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I’ve just read an article on pandemics and virology somewhere.

As we haven’t had many in living history they also looked at animal pandemics.

Anyway just because the Spanish flu disappeared in 2 years doesn’t mean to say this will, which is what everybody seems to be thinking.

Some virus don’t die out. They looked at Myxomatosis in rabbits and something in cattle. Also measles which has only died down but not out due to vaccination.

Depressing read😕

What we do have now is medical advances - better diagnosis and better treatments and that can give us hope.

Another reality that we need to get to grips with is that there is more international travel than during previous pandemics which will make containment harder than ever.

nordica · 02/02/2021 12:11

I prefer to listen to the scientists. Although as Chris Whitty and others have pointed out numerous times, their job is to specifically advice on the science and medical part. It's then a job for the politicians to take that information and consider it alongside all other issues - the wider socio-economic context and impact of lockdowns and restrictions as well as NHS capacity.

At the end of the day though it's a virus, we can't stop it just because we want to... So to say SAGE are depressing is much like saying the MetOffice weather forecasts are depressing when they say we'll have rain all week.

Haffiana · 02/02/2021 12:13

Wasn't it the Ancient Greeks who would blame and even kill the messenger of bad news?

Good to see that some MNers haven't evolved past that most primitive level.

Myalternate · 02/02/2021 12:16

@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia

My no expert understanding is:

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies provide the latest science as accurately as possible so basically saying it as it really is so raw with evidence based data undiluted. They include much worst case modelling as well as a range of hopeful societal outcomes if a varying degree of the collective behavioural expectations are carried out in whole, moderated or ignored.

The political leadership take this scientific advice into account and then blend with political and economic advice to come up with guidelines with necessary emergency criminal legislation.

The public then mostly follow the political guidelines with some Covidiots seemingly doing their own things and hence local super mutual spreading etc etc and the forever perpetual cycles of quasi lockdowns doom and gloom with short termism entitlement selfishness behaviour over joined up strategic long term pandemic containment and eradication policies and collective civic duty of care behaviours and expectations.

In a nutshell.
Fridget · 02/02/2021 12:20

@mac12

Nobody thinks covid are the only deaths. At present there is v little evidence of excess deaths due to lockdown - this is clear from ONS excess death reporting. However, the economic fall out & delayed health interventions as a result of covid will kill many many people. This isn’t down to lockdown, it’s down to Covid.
That’s not my understanding of the ONS report on QALYS. I agree cancelled operations etc are due to covid not lockdown (fewer covid patients means more beds for cancer operations) but I’m not talking about those.

If you are suggesting that everything bad that lockdown causes, covid would have caused anyway and that therefore lockdown does no harm independent of covid, then I completely disagree with you.

LimitIsUp · 02/02/2021 12:29

The take away is:

"Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said that he is confident the company’s vaccine should still be protective against the newly detected variants, but that “it is imperative to be proactive as the virus evolves.” To that end, Moderna’s scientists are retooling the company’s mRNA sequence to more closely mimic the most significant mutations and plan to test it as an additional booster shot in clinical studies later this year." (from a link cited upthread)

Yes the vaccines are less effective against the South African virus, but they are still thought to be over 50% effective. Prior to the vaccines we had nothing to counter their effect, now we've got some armour

Also, they can tweak the vaccines relatively easily to increase this efficacy.

There really is no need to be mired in gloom.

CoffeeandCroissant · 02/02/2021 12:45

Also, they only look at the epidemiological side. All governments need to listen to their scientific advisors and then look at the bigger picture - the economy, the impact on non covid-related healthcare, education etc etc - and then make their decision.

That's not accurate, the government do also consider the other aspects you mentioned:
mobile.twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1355842996168699905

www.gov.uk/government/publications/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response-membership/list-of-participants-of-sage-and-related-sub-groups

www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-health-economic-and-social-effects-of-covid-19-and-the-tiered-approach

turnitonagain · 02/02/2021 12:46

@LimitIsUp the problem is the headlines of the articles with the quote you provided say "Moderna vaccine far less effective against South African variant" with the bit about still being 50% effective (which is very good compared to nothing, around the same efficacy as the flu vaccine) all the way at the bottom.

The way these messages are being communicated is not working and skewing heavily to the negative aspects.

LimitIsUp · 02/02/2021 12:49

I agree - the headlines are awful. We won't change that though. All we can do though is train ourselves not to panic at the headlines, recognise that they are alarmist, and school ourselves to read the finer detail in the articles before reacting.

AuntyClementine · 02/02/2021 12:53

@MadameBlobby

I find SAGE ridiculous. Sitting pretty in secure jobs having had the benefit of full educations and now seeking to keep measures going indefinitely that will prevent the majority of society enjoying the privileges they do.
Yes, of course, that’s their primary aim - to prevent the majority of society enjoying the privileges they do. Obviously.
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