How do you think next year will pan out in the UK?

[Echobelly]

Obviously, totally how long is a piece of string question, but interested in pondering. And a lot hangs on new variant and whether it stays more prevalent in spring/summer

Looks like cases will go down slowly
Vaccine won't have much impact of hospital admissions until at least late March
Unless infections rates really haven't fallen, schools get two-week warning to go back at the end of the easter hols, so they basically go back in May, and maybe only a few years initially at that
May - non-essential shops, hairdressers open, maybe restaurants and cafes with outdoor dining only, outdoor attractions. But there's no way we'll get such a nice spring/summer again so there might not be so many opportunities to go to them, 'Rule of 6' again outdoors
June - Some indoor things like galleries, museums open with limited numbers and masks, lots of outdoor 'drive in' stuff will operate over the summer. If new variant has calmed down over summer maybe 'Rule of 6' indoors with ventilation, possibly even requirement to mask.

That's about as good as it gets all summer. Holidays, no idea - everywhere may have declared us a plague pit and no entry without quarantine, some may impose shorter quarantine with testing.

Schools open September - then the 'exciting' part starts as we see how well as the vaccine works after 6 months and whether the government has screwed up by delaying second dose

End of year - possible precautionary lockdowns, eg maybe shutting schools, indoor events beginning of December (if they haven't already), maybe a rule of 6 for Christmas.

I think we have to get through one winter that is less bad than this one before much can change. I'm sadly unable to see how indoor theatre or concerts of any kind will be able to operate unless the new variant really tails off in warmer weather (if we get warmer weather)

How depressing!

I honestly am an optimist in general, but people need to understand it's not a case of vaccinating vulnerable people and everything returns to normal, as unfortunately, it just doesn't.

Things could turn out somewhat better if it turns out the vaccines do prevent or significantly cut down transmission, but apparently that is very hard to predict, and it will take some time before we can tell if they do.

There's a lot of talk that they could possibly manage to vaccinate all over 18s who want it as early as July... I'm hanging onto that hope as it would make late summer/early autumn much, much better! Of course new variants are a concern but sounds like the thinking is that the vaccines will at least give us some immunity even if not as effective.

I think it all depends on border controls.

New variants are emerging continually. Sooner or later one of these will be vaccine-resistant. Based on probability, it will not emerge in the UK (especially if we can get our case numbers down to the levels of last summer and not allow them to rise again).

Unless the government stop new variants being brought in, there are no guarantees of improved situation in the UK. Our entire policy is based on the vaccine working and everyone getting the vaccine. If a vaccine-resistant variant enters the country, we will soon back to square one. It is all very well people saying the vaccines can be adjusted to the new variants, but not the vaccines that are already inside people. The vaccine programme would need to restart from the very beginning and lockdown required all over again.

This is why summer holidays abroad are a very bad idea and the government needs to man up and stop all non-essential travel to all countries (not just those overrun with existing variants that we already know about).

Typical doommongering op

You've not mentioned leisure etc.

I think they open schools with non essential shops.

Then bars and pubs as they are good revenue.

Then leisure facilities as a group.

This year will slowly but surely improve month by month.

If lockdown restrictions are removed in the right order, slower than all would like but with caution, with vaccine roll-out, better treatments and the warmer weather, there is the possibility that once a restriction is lifted it won't be reinstalled.

Which is much more positive

Oh God I cant think about next year yet. I try to live now month by month. By Christmas everyone will be vaccinated that accepts it. The NHS will cope with the ones who refuse it or arent in the % that it doesnt protect. Life will be a lot more normal and will live with the civid deaths like we do with do flu deaths. Inevitable, unavoidable or something spun along those lines.

Putting any hope or cash in industry's struggling will be a massive gamble.

The only thing I am certain of is seeing a lot of businesses collapse this year like Travel giants.

Re non essential shops I'm starting to be really careful about buying only what my kids desperately need ( they dont go out much now so who sees their ankle swingers 😂) so I buy what i have to online or in the supermarket. So after being conditioned my shopping habits have changed.

I think even if covid was to disappear by Dec ( v unlikely) some people like me will take a long time to be spending time or money like in 2019..also even if was v keen to pick up my 2019 life, I think some of it has gone bust and folded already.

That's my musings.

What a doom-mongering post!

If schools are the first to open then that won’t be May for a start. Staggered return from 8th March
I think.

The new vaccines have been shown to work on the Kent and S.African variants. That’s with no tweaking. Pfizer already started tweaking theirs. So many vaccines being approved weekly. It’s good news!

Even the media are being more positive than you.

I honestly am an optimist in general

But puts on a pessimistic post.

I think its being realist not pessimistic.
The government will have time to reflect on previous mistakes on handling this so will be more cautious on opening everything up rather than promising.
Traditionally 2nd and 3rd waves of any pandemic are worse. But we do have vaccines now to minimise a bad 3rd wave.
But its not going away for a while.
Everyone is so lockdown depressed/ fatigued that the 1st chance of relatively safe freedoms people will grab this demob style. ( as is roaring 20's after war/Spanish flu). Realising now that Summer might be only chance to live it up before Autumn/Winter 21 possibly leading to 3rd smaller wave.
I think maybe government will close our borders/ or continue strict quarantine testing for travel abroad, so its not feasible for many to travel abroad. Maybe chuck money at aviation etc. Instead of lockdowns and furloughs.
I can see Rishi offering vouchers to holiday in UK?
Once no.s are low test and trace and continued vaccination. Quite possible by August we may have very surpressed cases and life to most regard be back to normal in a fair way. Outbreaks can then be managed locally.
Better to be realistic than the boom and bust of hope then disappointment, as that affecting people mentally.
I could rather no foreign travel for leisure for 2 years if everything else was virtually normal. But until the rest of planet vaccinated this could repeat for years if we let new variants rampant.

"Doom mongering" . Common sense more like.

Optimism is what's getting us into this mess. Finished in 12 weeks, saving Xmas etc. We've got another year yet, although hopefully with far far fewer deaths.

In the next few months we will have vaccinated groups 1-9. This means those at risk of severe covid drops by 95-99% I believe.

Then we carry on the roll out the the next most at risk (by exposure) groups.

This should be completed by the summer rolling into early autumn for the 18+

The case rates will carry on falling as they are starting to, for every group of vaccinated people the hospital admission will fall, death will fall.

If we can sustain the manufacture of our vaccines and deliver this roll out, by summer we will be seeing a marked change in regulations. Before this things will be opening gradually, starting with schools.

I anticipate many bumps primarily to do with vaccine roll out because by the autumn we will likely need boosters for the new variants, but this is achievable.

I'm expecting almost a complete return to normality by September apart from mask wearing.

Does anyone have any thoughts on when those who are currently working from home would be expected to return to the office? Boris mentioned WFH until April back in Autumn, I wonder whether that is still the case.

I hate all the talk of no foreign travel - I haven’t seen my fiancé since September last year! I’m happy to follow any restrictions needed but why should we be separated indefinitely because we happen to live apart. I could cope if it was ‘on x date you’ll be able to see each other’ but this is people saying ‘no foreign travel at all this year’ and others still saying ‘keeping out other variants could take years’ YEARS? People want us separated from loved ones for YEARS? How is that fair? And I know someone will come on shortly and tell me how selfish I am for wanting to see the man I’m going to marry, well fine I’m selfish then. My breaking point is pretty damn soon

@AmyFl

Does anyone have any thoughts on when those who are currently working from home would be expected to return to the office? Boris mentioned WFH until April back in Autumn, I wonder whether that is still the case.

I can't see a widespread return to the office until all social distancing regulations are scrapped- my office can't fit more than 25% of staff in while SD for example. I expect people who want to go in for wellbeing reasons will be able to over the summer but it might be back to WFH again in the autumn/winter. I think firms will be really cautious on this until case numbers are very low/most people who want a vaccine can get one.

@Iamclearlyamug thats awful to be seperated it must be very hard. I hope you get reunited soon. No one wants to ban travel for the sake of it. I think of course there should be exceptions like yourself, but with strict testing and quarantine, which I am sure would be preferable for you to do if you get to be reunited?
But without measures like that it will spread if people travel for leisure as many did not isolate/ use public transport home etc.
I think it will be retired people or wealthy that will feasibly be able to go abroad.
Most families/ couples would lose a lot of annual leave and money unless quarantine can be shortened for quick tests?
I really believe the government will bail out travel and aviation so as to avoid a 3rd wave and lockdown this Autumn as it will be even harder for people to comply then if many are already vaccinated by then.

In early December, I was pretty sure vaccinations would bring on a rapid improvement from March as hospital admissions (the crucial thing to control) would fall a lot then, so that although Jan and Feb would be awful, the rest of the year would be much better then last. I even bought theatre tickets for early May.

I had assumed I might be back in the office a few days a week over summer, although possibly returning home in autumn/winter, but now I don't imagine I'm going in - the issue being the commute rather than the office.

But the new variants, the fact that actually it's the 45-64 age group who are the biggest % of hospital & ICU admissions (so won't be vaccinated until after this peak), the extemely high numbers and slow decline have thrown everything really, plus the realisation we are expecting a lot of vaccines effectively on their own - which is why things will have to stay restricted.

This isn't some 'woe is me' thing - as an individual and a family, we are doing OK and can keep this up - working from home, even coping decently with home schooling as our kids are a bit older. I really hope to God I am massively wrong in my OP!

@AmyFl

Does anyone have any thoughts on when those who are currently working from home would be expected to return to the office? Boris mentioned WFH until April back in Autumn, I wonder whether that is still the case.

I can still remember the 'leave home, return to the office' save pret in the summer - that turned out quite badly for virus levels over the course of the following few months.

I would be very surprised if they were so expressly daft again this time.

Since so many people are going into non-essential offices and workplaces already in this lockdown, I doubt the return to offices will be as headline-grabbing this time. It may be a subtle gradual return with more mixed WFH/office working.

Just my guess, what do I know though!

@Mintypylonsfryingsurplus thanks for being understanding 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ I’d happily get tested, do a quarantine, whatever - what worries me is a) being banned from travel full stop as we are at the moment and then later on b) only being allowed to travel if vaccinated - I’m 31 with no underlying health conditions so unlikely to get a first vaccine let alone a second any time soon 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

@Iamclearlyamug it must be such a worry, I really can't imagine the uncertainty.
Please be positive I am sure you will be vaccinated sooner than you think. Could you volunteer at a vaccination centre to get a jab by the summer when everything likely to be eased?
I am only musing what do any of us know is going to happen, just a possibility that it will be harder to travel in a way we all used too. More expensive and more hoops to jump through so we cant all take virus in and out of countries like 2020.
It makes me sad too. All the travel freedom we took for granted. It may be more expensive too in years to come especially for families.

The travel thing is saddening - we held off going abroad last year, as I figured it'd be easier this year, but got that wrong. TBH I don't find it that bad not going abroad for a bit, but was really hoping to visit my parents' place in my mum's home country. I think the only way that's happening is if they allow visiting with test on way out, then a few days into isolation testing again, ie keeping isolation to less than a fortnight, and we might be able to do it. It's not a big tourist destination, so if travel is allowed we don't have to worry about there being a big rush to book.

COVID-19: Life won't return to normal for at least two years, expert warns, saying pandemic 'isn't over until it's over globally' | UK News | Sky News

I honestly am an optimist in general
Yeah sounds like it

@1dayatatime

COVID-19: Life won't return to normal for at least two years, expert warns, saying pandemic 'isn't over until it's over globally' | UK News | Sky News

Depends what they mean by "normal" though doesn't it. Yes we might not be able to have huge indoor gatherings or multiple abroad holidays for 2 years. But we might be able to go out for meals, see family members and travel within the UK. "Not normal" doesn't equal "full lockdown" for two years does it. I would personally be very happy to return to the July/August levels of restriction for a year.