How do you think next year will pan out in the UK?

[Echobelly]

Obviously, totally how long is a piece of string question, but interested in pondering. And a lot hangs on new variant and whether it stays more prevalent in spring/summer

Looks like cases will go down slowly
Vaccine won't have much impact of hospital admissions until at least late March
Unless infections rates really haven't fallen, schools get two-week warning to go back at the end of the easter hols, so they basically go back in May, and maybe only a few years initially at that
May - non-essential shops, hairdressers open, maybe restaurants and cafes with outdoor dining only, outdoor attractions. But there's no way we'll get such a nice spring/summer again so there might not be so many opportunities to go to them, 'Rule of 6' again outdoors
June - Some indoor things like galleries, museums open with limited numbers and masks, lots of outdoor 'drive in' stuff will operate over the summer. If new variant has calmed down over summer maybe 'Rule of 6' indoors with ventilation, possibly even requirement to mask.

That's about as good as it gets all summer. Holidays, no idea - everywhere may have declared us a plague pit and no entry without quarantine, some may impose shorter quarantine with testing.

Schools open September - then the 'exciting' part starts as we see how well as the vaccine works after 6 months and whether the government has screwed up by delaying second dose

End of year - possible precautionary lockdowns, eg maybe shutting schools, indoor events beginning of December (if they haven't already), maybe a rule of 6 for Christmas.

I think we have to get through one winter that is less bad than this one before much can change. I'm sadly unable to see how indoor theatre or concerts of any kind will be able to operate unless the new variant really tails off in warmer weather (if we get warmer weather)

I would personally be very happy to return to the July/August levels of restriction for a year.

That would still be harming many sectors economically. They can't all get delivery driver jobs.
I honestly don't know why people will just happily put up with this indefinitely.

It would be good if they might be able to find ways for vaccinated people to see one another at least? So even if you can't go to the theatre or a big party, you might visit family or friends.

Again, a lot will hang on whether the vaccines lower infectiousness, but it sounds like it will be some time before scientists can tell.

I don't know what aviation, hospitality and the arts are supposed to do though until people can mix

BTW good post @Mintypylonsfryingsurplus - I think it is about being realistic given what we've learned. This should be the worst deaths and hospitalisation get, but unfortunately that doesn't mean that social contact can just return to normal as we need to get and keep cases low so track and trace can work until a majority are vaccinated, or else keep facing lockdowns (and actually t&t was starting to get much more effective at reaching contacts in autumn,but can't really help much i Curbridge high infection situation) .

As long as there is a large proportion of the population unvaccinated, the virus will continue to mutate and evolve. I'm at the point of thinking maybe the best we can hope for is that it mutates into milder forms that bring it into line with its cousin, Common Cold. Then we can all heave a collective sigh of relief.

This isn’t a lockdown right now, employers are using loopholes to continue to force people in to work. The roads and public transport are heaving in the mornings.

@MaxNormal

I would personally be very happy to return to the July/August levels of restriction for a year.

That would still be harming many sectors economically. They can't all get delivery driver jobs.
I honestly don't know why people will just happily put up with this indefinitely.

Yes. People here seem to think social distancing is just about yellow markers in supermarkets, but whole industries, incl hospitality, travel, the arts, leisure etc simply cannot survive with social distancing in place. We're talking, directly or indirectly, millions of jobs and billions of £ in tax revenue, so it's not a small thing. Those pubs and restaurants etc which haven't already gone to the wall will do so if several months more of restrictions are imposed.

Plus, what do people think is going to change in September, coming into the winter? Are they happy for this to go on indefinitely? And who is going to pay for it?

Holidays, no idea - everywhere may have declared us a plague pit and no entry without quarantine,

Plague Pit

I haven’t read the thread but this made me laugh so much

If mutations weren’t a risk, there should be no issue with cases numbers remaining high if people aren’t dying or ending up in hospital. All over 50s should be vaccinated by mid March at the current rate, so most immune by say the end of March. That should mean hospital admissions and deaths will be right down by that time, and we should be able to open up large parts of the economy.

I am concerned people will obsess over cases even if they don’t matter any more though - and healthy you people will be unnecessarily worried for their own health. Prople will also be concerned about mutations. But I don’t see why the risk of mutations with coronavirus is so bad compared to flu, which mutates and we change vaccines for each year. I think we just need to catch up ahead of next winter and everything should be fine.

Much also depending on, have we learned to ventilate rooms! So many places we went too had hand gel on the table but windows firmly shut.

Have we got air purifying systems in classrooms, will all classrooms have proper opening windows and heating?.
It was mind boggling that some schools moaned about wasting heat and no point having windows open and heating on 🤔... Fussing about this in a pandemic!! Luckily my dc schools had heating on full blast and windows open!

Will hospitals have specially adapted covid wards?.

Will we have enough ppe and proper grade masks, will hospital infections, cross infection be stopped...

Can hospital staff get a bonus or pay rise?

Will all dc have tech by winter so we can smoothly go on line again, as and when.

Right at the start whitty did say... This was a marathon and will stay with us for about two years

I guess things will ease but that depends on how the mutants work.

This article in the Times gives a pretty good summary of the outlook based on modelling by the teams that advise SAGE:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/when-will-lockdown-end-three-scenarios-for-the-next-few-months-xtdbm255d

Sorry, I don't have a share token.

In Wales, we're hopeful for a partial school reopening after half term as long as our cases keep going down, we did close them earlier though- before Christmas- so I don't see a UK wide response. I would imagine our other restrictions will persist a bit longer, especially as cases in some North Wales counties are still high. I am hopeful that at least some easing will happen- so we will be allowed to see one other person not from our household for exercise as well from around the 22nd Feb all going well. I think that non essential retail reopening could happen mid March for us, but that the border between Wales and England will stay closed for a while. Or that we will have our non essentials curbed until the Engish counties nearby also have consistently low cases to prevent cross-country travel to access Cardiff/ Wrexham etc.
Hopefully most places here will open around May time, with socal distance rules in place, and UK holidays allowed- if Englands cases are still high I could see us in Wales only being allowed to holiday in Wales as happened for part of last winter. Then I think it'll be a 'watch and wait' approach to see if cases continue to go down, or if they rise again.

I’m confused, why won’t schools go back until May?

I’m working on the basis of phased reopening from 8th March, the rest going back 4 weeks later after Easter, which in our schools is 12th April.

If only the vaccinated people can travel that will cause a massive problem (if they stop vaccinating younger people)

@ManyMaybes

If mutations weren’t a risk, there should be no issue with cases numbers remaining high if people aren’t dying or ending up in hospital. All over 50s should be vaccinated by mid March at the current rate, so most immune by say the end of March. That should mean hospital admissions and deaths will be right down by that time, and we should be able to open up large parts of the economy.

I am concerned people will obsess over cases even if they don’t matter any more though - and healthy you people will be unnecessarily worried for their own health. Prople will also be concerned about mutations. But I don’t see why the risk of mutations with coronavirus is so bad compared to flu, which mutates and we change vaccines for each year. I think we just need to catch up ahead of next winter and everything should be fine.

I find it really depressing that now that we've got several great vaccines and the roll-out is going superbly, all the talk has shifted to 'new variants' and 'mutations'.

I'm not saying they don't pose a risk. But that risk has been known about all along. Viruses mutate. It's what they do. It just seems that every positive development has to be undone by some bad news. It's grim.

You are forgetting one big element: people's compliance.

Do you really think people will meekly continue to put up with this beyond the Spring?

Look at what is happening in places like the Netherlands and Italy. Individuals and businesses are not going to endlessly comply with these rules. Government has until Spring to vaccine intensively. After that it will become harder to justify restrictions.

As for those who bleat about mutations and protecting the NHS, life has to carry on and we need to learn how to live with this. Zero Covid is not an option.

If schools are the first to open then that won’t be May for a start. Staggered return from 8th March

I can't see this happening. Even if the government says open the teachers unions will say no unless teachers are vaccinated, have PPE and social distancing, which will take a lot longer to sort out and the distancing won't be possible at all in many cases. If my child's teacher was refusing to go in and teach the full class at the start of the month I can't imagine she'll have changed her mind in 6 weeks.

*You are forgetting one big element: people's compliance.

Do you really think people will meekly continue to put up with this beyond the Spring?*

A year ago, I'd have said absolutely not. But here we are. I think at this stage, people are numb and have almost lost hope. It just seems never ending. Any hope we had with vaccination and falling rates, has been knocked back. I think people are almost forgetting what normality is like.

Plus, even if people decide they're going to visit family and the like, if shops, pubs, schools etc are closed by law, there's very little we can do. The protests you mention in Holland and Italy were still prety small-scale. Will that change? Like I say, a year ago I'd have definitely but now I'm shocked at what people will put up with.

I think phased reopening of schools from 8 March, back in full after Easter. And I can’t see realistically that they would be closed again next winter unless there is a vaccine resistant mutation.

But very slow on other reopenings, maybe April for shops/gyms/hairdressers, maybe May for pubs/restaurants but not a free for all. No idea for mass events as they are a much bigger risk for spreading unidentified mutations. Case rate and R rate will continue to be important but will naturally be much lower during summer - hence why cases didn’t rise til end of August last year despite rules being relatively relaxed.

They should be planning for vaccination of teachers ASAP after vulnerable groups. Like USA.

@ElectraBlue

You are forgetting one big element: people's compliance.

Do you really think people will meekly continue to put up with this beyond the Spring?

Look at what is happening in places like the Netherlands and Italy. Individuals and businesses are not going to endlessly comply with these rules. Government has until Spring to vaccine intensively. After that it will become harder to justify restrictions.

As for those who bleat about mutations and protecting the NHS, life has to carry on and we need to learn how to live with this. Zero Covid is not an option.

Nothing much happening in Italy.

More schools are opening up as of tomorrow with parents having the choice of whether to send kids in or not. This is high school as primary and middle have been back since Christmas.

If you mean the hospitality industry wanting to open up- they already can (bars/restaurants) with reduced opening hours or in higher risk places for takeaway and home delivery only. There was a protest of restaurateurs outside parliament a couple of weeks ago saying they wanted to be free to open up totally

Nothing else has been reported since.

Though it's intriguing to keep seeing this "look at what's happening in Italy and the Netherlands" thing all over MN.

Businesses are by and large open. Most regions moved into yellow zones yesterday with further announcements next week (rumour has it they'll open hospitality further and allow travel between regions)

I honestly don't know. People are saying "vaccinated" by March but that's the first one
I'm booked to have my first this week, then my second isn't until the 1st May

@CrunchyCarrot

As long as there is a large proportion of the population unvaccinated, the virus will continue to mutate and evolve. I'm at the point of thinking maybe the best we can hope for is that it mutates into milder forms that bring it into line with its cousin, Common Cold. Then we can all heave a collective sigh of relief.

This virus was cultivated in the lab, there's no telling what it will do m.youtube.com/watch?v=L7mXa0NjLb4&t=1s

It sounds like you are also a scientist

This virus was cultivated in the lab, there's no telling what it will do

Whether it was created in a lab or evolved naturally, it makes no difference. All viruses mutate. They can mutate because mistakes happen when they are replicating or because bits of new dna get mixed in eg from other viruses in the cell at the same time. That is the same for a virus that has evolved naturally or one that has been genetically engineered. You can't control that or pre-program a virus to mutate in a particular way at a set time.

I think if this carries on. Change the holidays next year. So 6 weeks off over the winter and 2 weeks of in the summer