How do you think next year will pan out in the UK?

[Echobelly]

Obviously, totally how long is a piece of string question, but interested in pondering. And a lot hangs on new variant and whether it stays more prevalent in spring/summer

Looks like cases will go down slowly
Vaccine won't have much impact of hospital admissions until at least late March
Unless infections rates really haven't fallen, schools get two-week warning to go back at the end of the easter hols, so they basically go back in May, and maybe only a few years initially at that
May - non-essential shops, hairdressers open, maybe restaurants and cafes with outdoor dining only, outdoor attractions. But there's no way we'll get such a nice spring/summer again so there might not be so many opportunities to go to them, 'Rule of 6' again outdoors
June - Some indoor things like galleries, museums open with limited numbers and masks, lots of outdoor 'drive in' stuff will operate over the summer. If new variant has calmed down over summer maybe 'Rule of 6' indoors with ventilation, possibly even requirement to mask.

That's about as good as it gets all summer. Holidays, no idea - everywhere may have declared us a plague pit and no entry without quarantine, some may impose shorter quarantine with testing.

Schools open September - then the 'exciting' part starts as we see how well as the vaccine works after 6 months and whether the government has screwed up by delaying second dose

End of year - possible precautionary lockdowns, eg maybe shutting schools, indoor events beginning of December (if they haven't already), maybe a rule of 6 for Christmas.

I think we have to get through one winter that is less bad than this one before much can change. I'm sadly unable to see how indoor theatre or concerts of any kind will be able to operate unless the new variant really tails off in warmer weather (if we get warmer weather)

@Christmasfairy2020 - yes, it struck me that something like that might be an idea - all of Dec and first weeks of Jan off instead. I doubt it'd happen though.

Whether it was created in a lab or evolved naturally
you're prepared to accept that it may have been created though?

That is the same for a virus that has evolved naturally or one that has been genetically engineered
To be clear I now think it was likely cultured in a lab rather than genetically engineered.
More info here
jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/

@Yohoheaveho

Whether it was created in a lab or evolved naturally you're prepared to accept that it may have been created though?

No, I think it is much more likely that it evolved naturally. There are far easier ways to have genetically engineered the RaTG13bat coronavirus to allow it to infect humans more easily.

www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Whether the lab in Wuhan had cultures of SARS-CoV-2 that had evolved naturally, is a different question. Possibly. I doubt we will ever know for sure.

I'm feeling a tad more optimistic now that it looks like the Oxford vaccine (and apparently in turn, this should mean others too) does suppress infectiousness. That makes a significant difference, and I had feared it would be far longer before they could evidence that.

Figures are going in the right direction but I still reckon it would be smart to hold off really starting to reopen until April, just to get numbers right down, contain variants, and start vaccinating another cohort. If the UK does that, we might be in a much better position for the rest of the year.

My dd teacher said short 3 week hol in August a longer Xmas break and a further 1 week in April and jobs a good un!

Yeah,, something like that might be smart. Especially if there's minimal opportunity to get abroad in summer.