Deaths 'with' COVID-19

[Gettinggrumpier]

I agree the death rate is shocking. However, what would the UK death rate be, if the figures did not include situations such as a 97 year old with dementia, who fell and went into hospital, tested positive for COVID but was asymptomatic, who then passed away.

Do other countries record these types of deaths in their figures.
What is the percentage of elderly people in each country? Without recording figures in the same way, how can the media continually claim we are one of the countries with the highest death rate.

Isn't it extremely well known that in normal times, if you are elderly, fall and go into hospital, the chances of not recovering are very high.

I do so wish that more context is put into the daily headline figures and that mainstream media reaching for the quick, simple attention grabbing headline and instead provide more nuanced reporting.

@DianaT1969

Also OP, don't the deaths with Covid roughly cancel out the number of people who definitely died from Covid (i.e. they wouldn't have expected to die this year otherwise), but outside of the 28 day period? I'm mindful that many people on MN have lost loved ones, so don't really like talking about deaths in this abstract way. It's personal. For lots of people.

Yes, it's because the death if a loved is so personal that any questions on how the deaths are recorded are not easy to raise.

A family friends mother died and Covid was listed as the cause of death. Only she was 87 and had advanced dementia. She would have survived the covid had she accepted treatment - she ripped out canulas, drip lines, wouldn't take tablets and wouldn't keep nasal prongs or a face mask on. The Drs had a conversation with them very early on about how appropriate treatment would be in her case - so the family decided that she was better off being kept comfortable and she died 72 hours later.

They aren't the only people we know. A colleagues father had a fall, had a nasty head injury and went into hospital. A week later, he tested positive for Covid but was asymptomatic. He died from the head injury but the cause of death was recorded as Covid.

I think (or rather hope that) there will be one hell of an inquiry in years to come and all hell will be let loose as to how deaths were recorded during this pandemic.

@Raisinandcheese

Excess deaths here:

adapnation.io/covid-insights/

so atm, around 6,000 compared with the last 5 years average.

This is quite shocking if true

@raviolidreaming

What are looking for from this thread? Someone to produce figures to say that if you took away all the 'with covid' deaths it would be no more than any other year; that it's no worse than flu? That they know of at least 50,000 people who were in road traffic accidents but recorded as covid deaths? Are we waiting for the posters to come along who think medics are being paid extra to say a death is from covid?

I don know what I want, actually. I'm on my own and just thought I'd put my thoughts down here.

I'm not a COVID denier or anti vaxxer or believe in conspiracy theories about COVID.

DailyCarbuncle, the age profile of people in ICU is much younger than the overall hospital population because very old people mostly aren’t being admitted to ICU.

This graph is a useful illustration showing that both your “75% of hospital admissions are over 55” and Diana’s “ more than half of ICU patients are under 65” statements are true.

@Raisinandcheese where are you getting the 6000 figure from for excess deaths. I've followed your link but can't see where you have picked up a total of 6000 from.

This is quite shocking if true.

It's not true though:

mobile.twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1346860617735532544

mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1354140704180736002

We will never know. We can eventually compare methodologies with other countries I guess.

OP, as a PP has suggested, take a look at excess deaths, it's a good measure for your point.

The FT are running a very good free-to-read article. Just stick "FT excess deaths coronavirus" into Google and it'll pop up.

There are two cases that I know of where the patient tested negative for covid (in one case the patient had two negative tests) and when they died their deaths were recorded as covid deaths. I did try to find out why that was but couldn't get any answers

They could have had covid previously, for example in the first wave, and this then caused lasting physical damage or contributed to a deterioration while having another illness. Just because someone recovers from the actual covid, and so then in time produces a negative covid test, it doesn't mean that it hasn't left damaging effects behind

I know someone, not middle aged or elderly, who had chest pains following a positive test and was given an Xray and other other tests, and was told they had typical covid scarring on their lungs but that it wasnt too bad and would heal. The consultant actually said something like "I've seen far far worse".

Apparently Covid can leave recognisable signs in some people, even if they had it months ago and have never had a test at all

Excess deaths for 2020 were around 80,000, weren’t they? If it wasn’t Covid, I want to know what is out there killing 80,000 people. The BBC said it was the worst year since the Blitz.

@Littlewhitedove2

I wish people would have been asking this more during the last year. So many people hanging everything (including their mental well-being) on the figures we are being served up. Time and retrospect will tell.

But people have been asking and the information is out there to see. It's not some great conspiracy to stop us hearing real figures, you know. Over 100,000 have died OF covid - ie with covid as cause, according to ONS. The 28 day figures are just the easiest way to get latest approximate figures, and any deaths in those that are not actually covid get more than balanced out by those dying after 28 days.

It's not difficult to find. It's so frustrating when people are still banging on about this after months when the information is out there for all to see.

@addicted2spaniels

A family friends mother died and Covid was listed as the cause of death. Only she was 87 and had advanced dementia. She would have survived the covid had she accepted treatment - she ripped out canulas, drip lines, wouldn't take tablets and wouldn't keep nasal prongs or a face mask on. The Drs had a conversation with them very early on about how appropriate treatment would be in her case - so the family decided that she was better off being kept comfortable and she died 72 hours later.

They aren't the only people we know. A colleagues father had a fall, had a nasty head injury and went into hospital. A week later, he tested positive for Covid but was asymptomatic. He died from the head injury but the cause of death was recorded as Covid.

I think (or rather hope that) there will be one hell of an inquiry in years to come and all hell will be let loose as to how deaths were recorded during this pandemic.

So you're saying doctors fill in death certificates fraudulently?

Doctors are so very weary of being accused of this. They could lose their license. They record covid as a cause if it is a cause, because they are professionals. Anecdata does not make truth.

And yes, if you're questioning all these covid deaths then please explain the cause of the 80,000 excess deaths in the UK over the past 10 months. What disease did all those people die of, all this people who presented with similar symptoms and died in the same way?

Baffling.

@JellyBabiesSaveLives

Excess deaths for 2020 were around 80,000, weren’t they? If it wasn’t Covid, I want to know what is out there killing 80,000 people. The BBC said it was the worst year since the Blitz.

Excess deaths is a shit metric. Do you know how they get excess deaths? They average out deaths over a period of time and then say anything over that amount is excess... But we have no idea what fatality rate would have been in 2020.

For example even with covid the fatality rate in 2020 was similar to 2015 which was also an above average year... What virus was around in 2015?

So you're saying doctors fill in death certificates fraudulently?

Doctors are so very weary of being accused of this. They could lose their license. They record covid as a cause if it is a cause, because they are professionals. Anecdata does not make truth.

It's so unfair. It was the same when people were accusing them of doing nothing, especially accusing GPs.

My GP was fantastic back in the first wave, and really took time over the phone to explain to me why I had to self isolate when I'd rung over something I thought was unconnected. She had picked up on symptoms that at the time were not widely known, but certainly are now. My elderly neighbours also said their GP practice had been same.

I imagine in their spare time they, and many other HCP, had been pouring over the latest research and other newly published science. As it turned out, our area did indeed have very high numbers but im convinced that without our local GP's dedication, it could have been a lot worse!

@Flaxmeadow

So you're saying doctors fill in death certificates fraudulently?

Doctors are so very weary of being accused of this. They could lose their license. They record covid as a cause if it is a cause, because they are professionals. Anecdata does not make truth.

It's so unfair. It was the same when people were accusing them of doing nothing, especially accusing GPs.

My GP was fantastic back in the first wave, and really took time over the phone to explain to me why I had to self isolate when I'd rung over something I thought was unconnected. She had picked up on symptoms that at the time were not widely known, but certainly are now. My elderly neighbours also said their GP practice had been same.

I imagine in their spare time they, and many other HCP, had been pouring over the latest research and other newly published science. As it turned out, our area did indeed have very high numbers but im convinced that without our local GP's dedication, it could have been a lot worse!

GPs have got a lot to answer for. I know GP were diagnosing elderly care residence with covid via FaceTime, with out even going near them. There were many many deaths of elderly folk that could have been avoided to simple antibiotics and food and water. There will undoubtedly be an enquiry after this shit show and it will be a national scandal. How the fuck can a GP diagnose covid through FaceTime when it could have been a simple chest infection treated with antibiotics?

My own GP didn’t return to his practice till October, I share the same GP with my grandmother. She is isolating and had an eye infection. The GP wanted to video call her but she couldn’t work it out despite being told by us how to do it. GP refused to give her antibiotics over the phone with outseeing her and receptionist on the phone told her to go to the nearest walk in clinic at the hospital to get it checked out it was a fucking bus ride away!

@Raisinandcheese

Excess deaths here:

adapnation.io/covid-insights/

so atm, around 6,000 compared with the last 5 years average.

I don’t think you’re interpreting those graphs correctly at all. The figure legends aren’t detailed enough to know exactly what the numbers refer to but if you look at a table later on the excess deaths are 78000.

I’ve found the figure legends. It’s 6000 excess deaths in the last week there is ons data for , not since the pandemic started!

Is anyone on this thread a statistician or epidemiologist?

@Raisinandcheese
Although maybe I’m misinterpreting your post and you knew that.

[quote JS87]@Raisinandcheese
Although maybe I’m misinterpreting your post and you knew that.[/quote]
I said in my second post, I miscalculated.

I mean this in the kindest way, the death toll is irrelevant. It’s representative of so many factors including population demographics and health, govt policy, healthcare system, population density, differences in reporting etc. I’m not entirely sure what it tells us to be honest, other than it’s very sad.

Could be higher or lower depending how it’s reported but the irrefutable facts are the NHS is overwhelmed. Unless we are willing to say people will not be treated for COVID beyond X capacity (meaning an ambulance may not come for you, you may not get a hospital bed or care with oxygen and will be left gasping for air as my relative was), so we can continue other treatments ‘as normal’ we can’t get out of the current situation. I don’t think that’s what most people are willing to agree to.

We all agree the NHS is woefully under resourced but even throwing tons of money at it does not solve an immediate problem ie. staffing, as seen with the Nightingales.