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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

996 replies

TheSunIsStillShining · 20/01/2021 01:09

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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TeaInTheGarden · 22/01/2021 20:21

Promising news from Israel

twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1352696337477890049

wintertravel1980 · 22/01/2021 20:26

@TeaInTheGarden

Yes, absolutely, and that was my initial hypothesis. ONS has got the same limitation as REACT (although to a much smaller extent). ONS only tests its long standing participants once a month. Some of the people tested positive last week might have been infected much earlier (e.g. at the peak on Jan 1). As a result, we may be overestimating the true prevalence.

ONS recognises that monthly testing is a limitation. It is also the reason why they stopped publishing their estimated daily transmission rate. Apparently, they are working on refining their methodology.

Unfortunately, there is another more concerning explanation - ONS may be right, the number of infections is in fact higher than we think and we are missing more cases than previously because of the virus mutation.

Barracker · 22/01/2021 20:28

I was searching this evening for evidence that symptom clusters may be different. It's an area that seems too slow to update the official advice.

I remember reading threads about loss of taste here in March last year but it took months before that became official. There are threads of anecdotes now of people with clusters of symptoms other than the 3 official ones who are testing positive.

But since the official position (in areas without asymptomatic testing) is "you can't book a test if you don't have the main 3" this will result in a failure to capture any symptoms change quickly.

everythingthelighttouches · 22/01/2021 20:31

Good point MRex.

I believe the ONS surveillance was picking up about 150,000 new cases per day over Christmas or the first week in January? And we peaked at what 60,000 (7 day rolling av. based on actual report date) 31st December?

wintertravel1980 · 22/01/2021 20:37

ONS surveillance was picking up about 150,000 new cases per day over Christmas or the first week in January.

ONS stopped estimating daily transmission rates in early December. They initially promised to re-start in January but apparently "they are still working on it".

The 150,000 number was the back of the envelope SAGE estimate rather than anything official.

TeaInTheGarden · 22/01/2021 20:38

@wintertravel1980 yes that’s a possibility (not a nice one of course!)
Zoe app could be helpful here I guess. They seem to send people for tests for lots of different symptoms- so hopefully they will pick it up quickly if this is the case.

everythingthelighttouches · 22/01/2021 20:49

IloveJKRowling

“It's confusing because before Xmas they were saying that the new variant was NOT more lethal just more transmissible.”

Back in December They said that there is currently no evidence that the new variant is more lethal.

We are a few weeks down the line now, and they are saying there seems to be 1.3 x higher likelihood you will die if tested positive for covid.

AND that currently the evidence they have is you are more likely to end up in hospital but there is no evidence right now that once in hospital there are different outcomes for patients of the “old” vs “new” variants.

As Patrick Vallance said tonight, in a couple more weeks we will have even more data.

A possibility is, that when time allows for this data, we will find that in fact you are more likely to die when in hospital.

ITs just such a rapidly evolving puzzle.

JanuaryChill · 22/01/2021 21:27

Also maybe the (unhelpful) effect of schools being largely closed - altho latest DfE figures say over 13% of pupils still attending - is that fewer children will be taken for tests.

Could that have much of an effect, bearing in mind that the new variant effects children more than old variant?

everythingthelighttouches · 22/01/2021 21:37

A note on viral load which seems to be causing some confusion.
I wish I could draw a lifecycle type diagram here.... but heyho.

Viral dose- the amount of virus which you are exposed to (in your airways) at the point it enters and you become infected.

Viral load- after infected with the initial viral dose, it hijacks your cells and you start replicating and producing virus inside your body. This is the viral load.

Shedding- how much you’re putting out to others e.g. aerosols and droplets, fomites.

Scientists often use the term “viral load” interchangeably to describe the amount a patient has inside them or the amount they’re shedding.

The new variant does not appear to cause people to shed more virus (sometimes, confusingly called a viral load).

The new variant is mutated in the receptor binding domain (tip of the spikes) making it more “sticky” and able to get into your airways through a “door” called the ACE2 receptor.

That has been shown very clearly in the lab in a way which everyone is very confident plays out in real life.

This means we do know that the viral dose needed to become infected is lower for this new variant. You just don’t need as many particles to arrive at your airways to become infected, because the new variant is much more efficient at doing this.

We don’t know (waiting on some particular studies) if, once inside your cells, the virus begins to replicate more readily and increase your viral load ( this time, taken to mean the amount of virus a patient has in their body)

Higher viral doses are associated with worse symptoms and worse outcomes.

What’s worth saying with regard to the new variant versus the old variant and viral dose, is that it isn’t yet known, it’s very complicated and initial viral dose is only one factor in disease severity and patient outcome.

wintertravel1980 · 22/01/2021 21:44

Here is the actual paper on the new variant reviewed by SAGE:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955239/NERVTAG_paper_on_variant_of_concern__VOC__B.1.1.7.pdf

The research has covered the period from mid-November to early January so it would not have included impact of closed schools.

However.... I still think we may have CFR to IFR problem.

It is pretty clear from the government dashboard data that fewer people bothered to test at Christmas so our official numbers for that period had been underreported. Some individuals who were still unwell got their tests on December 29th, others just recovered and got on with life.

As we know, the prevalence of the new variant has been increasing over time. As a result, it is not unreasonable to assume that the missing data on "mild / moderate Christmas" cases would include higher percentage of the new variant that the average percentage for the period under review (mid-Nov to Jan 4).

What it means is that our CFR for the new variant might be artificially inflated since we are missing a chunk of mild to moderate Christmas cases that never got reported.

Eyewhisker · 22/01/2021 21:45

Teal - thanks for the Israeli link. That is the good news we needed today, and possibly confirms the UK’s first dose policy

TheSunIsStillShining · 22/01/2021 21:48

@everythingthelighttouches
Thanks for the very common language explanation! :)

OP posts:
wintertravel1980 · 22/01/2021 21:49

My take on this is that we need new analysis based on the "clean" data for January. Christmas period is too "noisy" and has got numerous data issues that might produce misleading results.

Witchend · 22/01/2021 22:06

@TheSunIsStillShining
dh would like that too.

Eyewhisker · 22/01/2021 22:12

This preliminary data from Israel suggests a 67% drop in cases and a 75% drop in hospitalisation the first group vaccinated

twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1352696743570374656?s=21

As it’s a 7-day moving average, it may improve further

peridito · 22/01/2021 22:17

Cheering news about Israel .

@ancientgran yes you can send a text to a landline ,might help with notifications .

mrshoho · 22/01/2021 22:19

@Eyewhisker

This preliminary data from Israel suggests a 67% drop in cases and a 75% drop in hospitalisation the first group vaccinated

twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1352696743570374656?s=21

As it’s a 7-day moving average, it may improve further

hallelujah Smile
Eyewhisker · 22/01/2021 22:28

Actually the hospitalisation result should be even better because of the lag before hospitalisation. So hospitalisation are of those who got infected ~10 days earlier. Hopefully in a couple of weeks the results should be much stronger.

Quarantino · 22/01/2021 23:06

I think I asked this months ago but would be interested in people's point of view. Does anyone think that it's basically inevitable that an under-50, not shielding but being fairly careful, in the UK will get covid at some point?

Cases have been so high that frankly I'm still amazed there are people left to infect, but that's because I'm terrible at imagining the scale of large numbers let alone the 67m people in the UK.

TheSunIsStillShining · 22/01/2021 23:18

my pov is that if someone is truly isolating than it can be averted. The cost of it is very high. No school for kid, no job, no travel, no family.
I don't think there are many who can afford both in terms of mental resilience or financially to do it.

OP posts:
TeaInTheGarden · 22/01/2021 23:53

For anyone who hasn’t found this yet- a brilliant website for data. So clear and easy to use

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

babyyodaxmas · 23/01/2021 07:14

I also thought that the example must have been very carefully chosen to be alarming without being absolutely panic inducing - you could have produced quite different reactions by choosing different age groups for your worked-out example

They (Whitty and Vallance) have used it before, I think it's because a white man in his 60's has almost exactly the average mortality risk eg:1%.

everythingthelighttouches · 23/01/2021 08:02

R4 discussion on new variant shortly.

Regulus · 23/01/2021 08:48

Is it cheering about Israel? (well it is for them) they have stuck to the 21 day second dose. If our results don't match theirs due to the delay in second dose it may end up being the least cheering thing I've ever read.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 23/01/2021 08:53

Their results looking at the impact of the single dose also appeared encouraging in the latest analysis.