Under 50s with no risk factors - how will the rest of 2021 look for us?

[Amidone]

Does anyone expect we will actually be vaccinated with even one dose anytime in 2021? There are already reports that after the current phase 1 groups are completed, teachers, childcare staff, police and shop workers will get next priority and I can see why - I expect teachers might get bumped up the list even quicker if the Gov wants schools reopened. Life will slowly return to more like normal, albeit with distancing and other measures still in place as we still don't know if the vaccines prevent transmission to the unvaccinated or whether the controversial dose spacing approach will give full protection to the vaccinated. I am also unaware of whether anyone knows if the vaccines prevent long Covid. Serious infection seems to be all we know that they help with at the moment so vaccination should reduce hospital pressures.

But for those under 50 and with no health or occupation risk factors, are we going to have to continue to try to dodge Covid until the end of the year, albeit with the reassurance that there'll likely be an ITU bed available for us if we get it badly? Given how lockdown and distancing rules haven't been observed by a significant minority so far, do we think that once vaccinated enough people will continue to put themselves out so to speak, for the protection of others?
I feel quite nervous about it all tbh. I certainly won't be rushing to hug vaccinated family members who may also be hugging other unvaccinated family members.
Can I really expect to avoid Covid infection for the best part of a year and three quarters? Especially as I have school age kids.
Already vaccinated and obviously otherwise healthy older people are telling the TV and radio reporters that they're looking forward to their next holiday abroad soon and trips to the theatre and restaurants. I don't feel able to travel abroad until I've been vaccinated. 2021 feels a write-off still despite the advent of the vaccines. :(

@safariboot

Even with the vaccination, 2020 was the warm up. 2021 will be worse.

I think there's a very real chance of either the vaccine failing because the British government is administering it wrong, or the virus evolving to bypass the vaccine because the British government has allowed it to run rampant.

What?

@BluebellsGreenbells

I hope they do vaccinate all by September as the younger members return to university, thousands of students in one place would be awful for them.

Well I've been saying for a while that I think they should be vaccinated as a priority so they can go back to university. Certainly ahead of people like me in their 40s who works from home!

redsquirrelfan late teen / early 20s uni students is a tough one. They're at much less risk of serious Covid than 40 somethings. Working from home is a blessing at times like this but many 40 somethings have school age kids which represent a significant risk to their parents - hence part of the rationale behind calls to vaccinate teachers (trying to resume a normal education for children and teenagers being the other of course.)

I tend to agree with the OP. Those of us not deemed at risk due to age or work are in for a long wait for the vaccine and face being marginalised in the meantime. Roll on autumn I say.

I found this from Imperial college whilst looking for some stats, as another healthy late 40s I I found it reassuring.

Probably a lot like 2020 ... the people who were happy to go to restuarants, pubs, shops etc and think they aren't at risk will out and about as soon as possible. Some of us will continue to stay at home (apart from work, outdoor exercise, essential reasons) and avoid indoor spaces with people outside of household/support bubble until we've had the vaccine even if the restrictions relax to permit more indoor mixing, opening of hospitality etc.

Based on the Government saying every adult offered a vaccine by Sept, if I receive dose 1 of vaccine by mid Sept and 2nd dose 12 weeks later (mid Dec), then I'll have immunity 2-3wks after the 2nd dose, so Christmas/end of 2021. Therefore I don't expect I will do much before end of 2021 unless I'm lucky enough to get both vaccine doses or they introduce a 1 dose vaccine before the end of the year.

However assuming my CEV bubble is vaccinated soon, I won't have to worry that if I have covid asymptomatically that I could hospitalise or kill the CEV people in my bubble (which has been on my mind since being in a support bubble no matter how careful I am) so will have more peace of mind than 2020.

People with family and friends in care homes will be finally be able to see them and key-workers who've been living apart from their vulnerable families will hopefully be able to return to living at home too.

@ChocOrange1

I'm 30 and have asthma. I'm happy to take my chances without the vaccine, once priority groups have been vaccinated. In all likelihood it will be a mild cold for me and it's not worth putting my life on hold for the tiny risk it could be more serious. I haven't spent the last 30 years staying indoors all the time in order to "dodge" flu or norovirus or meningitis or sepsis or any other million things which carry a risk of death. The only reason covid is different is because in an unvaccinated population it risks overwhelming the NHS. If that risk is gone, we just treat it like any other disease and get on with life.

Unfortunately ChocOrange and I'm in the same risk bracket (asthma, 30-something) there really is no guarantee that it will just be like a cold for you.

You're unlikely to need an intensive care bed yeah but a lot of 30-something asthmatics have three weeks of pretty nasty symptoms with Covid and others (even without asthma) have Long-covid.

It's really not just flu or norovirus.

@Tholeonagain

I found this from Imperial college whilst looking for some stats, as another healthy late 40s I I found it reassuring.

It doesn't take into account people treated briefly in A&E but not admitted; people with three weeks of severe symptoms but not severe enough to lead to hospitalisation or people with 'long-covid', which can cause long-term disability though.

True. But it’s also based on average risks, most of the risk in those stats will be born by those with health conditions who will be vaccinated earlier. Like everything it’s a balance of risks - my kids are going to need me out and about when it’s possible.

But for those under 50 and with no health or occupation risk factors, are we going to have to continue to try to dodge Covid until the end of the year, albeit with the reassurance that there'll likely be an ITU bed available for us if we get it badly?

Basically yes.

Just like the rest of the population, who instead of being more vulnerable (some considerably more), will be living the same way because once vaccinated they will have with a risk level similar to the one you have had all along.

Quite clear from Vallance that the aim is to get deaths down to a level which is deemed acceptable, not to make every individual safe.

So the 10% or so for whom the vaccine does not work well, plus the younger age groups who have a risk of serious disease at that sort of level anyhow, will be collateral damage.

If transmission is also suppressed by the jab (as seems likely) then we might get it down to a level that means the unlucky 10% might have some further protection. Which I very much hope for, because no-one knows if they will be the unlucky one

My CEV is my under 18 DS. Unless I can persuade the Doctors, he isn't even in the running for a vaccination.

I do think whilst there isn't currently the evidence that it doesn't reduce transmission I think this will be found to be the case.

After the bulk of the UK is vaccinating and the risk to the NHS is reduced, we will be getting out and about. We'll still be masked up, avoid large confined indoor gatherings, and homeschooling. But well get back to castles, themeparks and anything predominantly outside.

I have European flights/holidays booked (free cancellation) October and December. I believe we'll be on them. Just.

CEV are being vaccinated 16+

Doe sthat help your DS?

It might be worth seeing if he can receive it on an individual basis (his consultant might prescribe it on an individual basis, on the balance of his specific risks). There are also trials by Pfizer for those age 12+, so more data on the way.

And yes, I agree with you, the CEV are often woefully overlooked in general, let alone school age

It will probably be shit! Employers expecting us back but no pubs, theatres or restaurants letting us in without proof of vaccine which we haven’t yet had. All work and no play.

@MTBer2021

redsquirrelfan late teen / early 20s uni students is a tough one. They're at much less risk of serious Covid than 40 somethings. Working from home is a blessing at times like this but many 40 somethings have school age kids which represent a significant risk to their parents - hence part of the rationale behind calls to vaccinate teachers (trying to resume a normal education for children and teenagers being the other of course.)

I tend to agree with the OP. Those of us not deemed at risk due to age or work are in for a long wait for the vaccine and face being marginalised in the meantime. Roll on autumn I say.

But will the Uni teaching staff be willing to teach face to face with room fulls of non vaccinated students? We can't have them going back to uni to be stuck in their rooms watching videos of last years lectures again.

@scaevola

Thank you for your thoughts. Hes 13 so hes not entitled at present. His GP is currently chasing his consultants so I have hopes. Maybe just maybe....

Still the idea of living with risk, as opposed
to something being "safe", isn't as alien to us as it is to many. Were kinda used to balancing risk factors by the nature of his condition

As a “healthy” 32 year old I’ll be pretty furious if all measures are abandoned once the vulnerable are vaccinated. I’ve been following the rules strictly since March. I too am scared that I’ll be forgotten about, but they have said they aim to have everyone over 18 vaccinated by September.

If that is true, I expect to be offered it sometime in the summer.

I am desperate to have it.

@doireallyneedaname

As a “healthy” 32 year old I’ll be pretty furious if all measures are abandoned once the vulnerable are vaccinated. I’ve been following the rules strictly since March. I too am scared that I’ll be forgotten about, but they have said they aim to have everyone over 18 vaccinated by September.

If that is true, I expect to be offered it sometime in the summer.

I am desperate to have it.

As a healthy 33 year old I'll be pretty furious if they don't lift as many measures as they can once the vulnerable are vaccinated and the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed is greatly reduced. That was what we were told we were doing this for, not to make absolutely everyone 'safe' and we have to stick to that because a) keeping everyone safe is an impossible goal and b) the measures come with real harm - currently the critical situation in the NHS outweighs this but we have to reduce that harm absolutely as soon as we can.

@doireallyneedaname

As a “healthy” 32 year old I’ll be pretty furious if all measures are abandoned once the vulnerable are vaccinated. I’ve been following the rules strictly since March. I too am scared that I’ll be forgotten about, but they have said they aim to have everyone over 18 vaccinated by September.

If that is true, I expect to be offered it sometime in the summer.

I am desperate to have it.

I feel the exact opposite. As a healthy 30 year old I'll be furious if measures AREN'T abandoned once the vulnerable are vaccinated. You can't lockdown indefinitely protect young healthy people when only an extremely tiny number will get seriously ill if they get Covid.

Summer last year had virtually no deaths per day, despite only slight restrictions.

I'd hope for a nearly normal summer, with everyone having been vaccinated ready for next winter when it is needed.

Under 50s are a tiny tiny minority of deaths/hospitilisations.

Well, that was the initial reasoning but as time has passed we’ve found out about the long term damage covid can cause to otherwise healthy folk, and we have heard about the many young people requiring hospital treatment. Just because statistically we aren’t going to die doesn’t mean we wouldn’t spend a nice stint in hospital for a few weeks.

As a new mum, I don’t want that and it scares me. I would prefer if the government pulled their finger out and offered the vaccine to us sooner.

@doireallyneedaname

Well, that was the initial reasoning but as time has passed we’ve found out about the long term damage covid can cause to otherwise healthy folk, and we have heard about the many young people requiring hospital treatment. Just because statistically we aren’t going to die doesn’t mean we wouldn’t spend a nice stint in hospital for a few weeks.

As a new mum, I don’t want that and it scares me. I would prefer if the government pulled their finger out and offered the vaccine to us sooner.

Don’t you think people are working really hard on this?

I think people as in the community volunteers, frontline staff etc are working extremely hard - yes. But I think the government response has been an absolute shambles from the start. They’ve also had months to prepare for this.

@doireallyneedaname

I think people as in the community volunteers, frontline staff etc are working extremely hard - yes. But I think the government response has been an absolute shambles from the start. They’ve also had months to prepare for this.

What is happening so quickly is the result of the fast preparation. It’s all too easy to sit back and criticise but the vaccination programme is steaming ahead. Obviously more at risk will be first.

Generally I don’t think there will be this ever chasing need for ‘safe’. We’ll drop that and people will behave differently- more like last summer.

We’ve got the highest death rate in the world, at this point I simply cannot praise our government.

@Splodgetastic

It will probably be shit! Employers expecting us back but no pubs, theatres or restaurants letting us in without proof of vaccine which we haven’t yet had. All work and no play.

This! And I resent it. I agreed with the governments stance on education, when they said that schools will open before everything else, but I’m beginning to change my mind. Especially as pretty much any child who wants to be can be in school now and schools have to provide a full remote education, there’s no need to open schools before everything else. We need industries like theatre, entertainment, hospitality etc to be given a fair chance at coming back, it’s not ok to continue to sacrifice them.