Under 50s with no risk factors - how will the rest of 2021 look for us?

[Amidone]

Does anyone expect we will actually be vaccinated with even one dose anytime in 2021? There are already reports that after the current phase 1 groups are completed, teachers, childcare staff, police and shop workers will get next priority and I can see why - I expect teachers might get bumped up the list even quicker if the Gov wants schools reopened. Life will slowly return to more like normal, albeit with distancing and other measures still in place as we still don't know if the vaccines prevent transmission to the unvaccinated or whether the controversial dose spacing approach will give full protection to the vaccinated. I am also unaware of whether anyone knows if the vaccines prevent long Covid. Serious infection seems to be all we know that they help with at the moment so vaccination should reduce hospital pressures.

But for those under 50 and with no health or occupation risk factors, are we going to have to continue to try to dodge Covid until the end of the year, albeit with the reassurance that there'll likely be an ITU bed available for us if we get it badly? Given how lockdown and distancing rules haven't been observed by a significant minority so far, do we think that once vaccinated enough people will continue to put themselves out so to speak, for the protection of others?
I feel quite nervous about it all tbh. I certainly won't be rushing to hug vaccinated family members who may also be hugging other unvaccinated family members.
Can I really expect to avoid Covid infection for the best part of a year and three quarters? Especially as I have school age kids.
Already vaccinated and obviously otherwise healthy older people are telling the TV and radio reporters that they're looking forward to their next holiday abroad soon and trips to the theatre and restaurants. I don't feel able to travel abroad until I've been vaccinated. 2021 feels a write-off still despite the advent of the vaccines. :(

I'll soon be in the 45-50 age group, and a parent with a child at primary school. Like a lot of others, I feel like the government has let us down a bit. My risk is not the same as the risk of a 20-something with no kids. When my child goes back to school I'll be mixing with at least 30 other families by default and I know, from what I have seen with my own eyes, that not all of them have been careful about following the rules.

Why would they give out 30 million boosters? Surely they will only be boosting immunity of those who are vulnerable (over 50s or something) like with the flu.

Yes as a disabled parent I was so relieved when I was able to keep the DC's home again before it dawned on me that they will need to go back at (most likely) Easter if not before when I still won't have had a vaccine. I've accepted I will catch it and am just trying to stay healthy to give myself the best chance. I can't keep the DC's locked up with me indefinitely.

I sort of feel (don't flame me here peeps) that if they allow shop workers priority before, say, those aged 45-50, that's a little unfair on those of us in that age group who either have to go out to work in an office or some other location, or who have kids at school, because both these things expose you to risk. It feels like the risk of DC spreading the virus is (quite rightly) being considered for teachers but (I'm not sure why) not for parents.

I've completely written this year off. We'll probably get down to Tier 1 by the summer (but still need to SD, rule of 6, WFH etc..) and then back up the Tiers again from September onwards. Hopefully next winter won't be as bad as this one. I'm not expecting to get a vaccine - we just don't know how long vaccine induced immunity lasts yet- if it's 8 months or so the vulnerable will need to be revaccinated again by September and there won't be capacity to do anyone under 50. I'm more hopeful from 2022 onwards- I think it will be treatments that will be the 'game changing' breakthrough on Covid e.g. a tablet you could take upon contact with an infected person/positive test that stops you getting really ill/spreading it. It needs to be easily accessible i.e. available from pharmacies/supermarkets on a drop in basis.

@ChocOrange1
I suspect they will want to booster most of the adult population to keep the numbers at bay. Don't forget we are reliant on the rest of the world vaccinating too otherwise it will still be brought in via travel.

30 million is a plucked figure from the air but boosters will be needed for an awful lot of people to see through the next winter!

@mrsknottschicken

I sort of feel (don't flame me here peeps) that if they allow shop workers priority before, say, those aged 45-50, that's a little unfair on those of us in that age group who either have to go out to work in an office or some other location, or who have kids at school, because both these things expose you to risk. It feels like the risk of DC spreading the virus is (quite rightly) being considered for teachers but (I'm not sure why) not for parents.

Yes agreed. Many of us in that age category have DC at secondary schools and that age group of DC have been shown to transmit CV at the same rate as adults, so if teachers are at risk and a priority group, why not parents?? I can why the police should be vaccinated as a priority, but after that I think it should be in age order, going downwards, as with the older categories.

I'm happy to go back to normal and take my chances without the vaccine. I'm only following the rules to protect the vulnerable.

I reckon it will be this year

The risk factor will be dc at school before it happens and other stuff I choose eg restaurants

But I’d prefer school back than dc wait

I assuming a mad dash to get us done by winter before they have to start the 2021 round of vaccinations for the very elderly.

I'm happy to lie low for the foreseeable future, but I'm worried about my dc's returning to secondary in the spring.

I am 30, no health issues. I dont expect mine til September at the earliest. I will be bottom of the list. Am I wrong to be jealous of my 85 year old neighbours who had 3 sets of visitors to their house on saturday because they have had their first vaccine (although that didnt stop them having visitors before), when I cant even meet a friend at a playpark to have another adult to speak to 5 days a week? Doesnt look like me or my toddler and newborn are going to have any freedom anytime soon.

@Waxonwaxoff0

I'm happy to go back to normal and take my chances without the vaccine. I'm only following the rules to protect the vulnerable.

At this stage and with the new variant, anyone can be vulnerable.

Half of critical care beds currently taken up by non-ECV under-50s.

If you end up in ICU you have a high chance of being rehospitalised and a not-negligible chance of dying within a couple of months - latest UK research that was published yesterday. Plus ICU stays are often associated with PTSD and psychological problems afterwards.

These are not trivial issues and all under-50s not in the priority lists are at risk of them.

@ mrsknottschicken I think shop workers should be next thanks. Along with teachers, police and public transport workers.
Also council workers, delivery drivers and then the eldest down to the youngest.
The stuff the shop workers have to face is horrific, the amount of people they deal with face to face is a lot. I am scared everyday my dp goes to work, I am scared when he has to go to another store because the regional manager needs him too. We have a young family too, including a lock down baby!

@megletthesecond

I assuming a mad dash to get us done by winter before they have to start the 2021 round of vaccinations for the very elderly.

I'm happy to lie low for the foreseeable future, but I'm worried about my dc's returning to secondary in the spring.

I agree. What will it look like if they are giving winter boosts of the new winter version of the vaccine before the 'healthy' under-50s have received any vaccine at all?

I would put up with staying at home safe, but my teenager needs to go back to school. The unions will make sure the teachers are safe, but who keeps the parents safe?

we need to get the cases down enough that it is possible to give real financial support to those isolating. This will bring the cases down further.

we could have helped when it was 500 cases a day. At 40,000, no chance. So we need to get the cases down.

shut borders for a year, no-one in or out except hauliers. (especially not 'influencers' who then go and spread it further). Pubs and restaurants shut, with proper support for those left with no income; no pubs and bars means no Saturday night additional NHS pressure. Let's throw money where it is needed, at those whose businesses are shut down. Not encouraging use of those businesses! This will also mean support for those in travel and many other sectors.

strict and enforced limits on numbers in shops ; if you are that desperate for anything non-essential, you won't mind queuing up. No communal worship of any kind.

then we can hopefully keep the schools open and get into a vaccination groove for the future. Mandatory mask wearing in public indoor spaces - help for those who can't wear masks is already there, just ask if you need shopping done.

not fun but otherwise no way out. Australia has done it without a vaccine, lower population but still has big cities.

**At this stage and with the new variant, anyone can be vulnerable.

Half of critical care beds currently taken up by non-ECV under-50s.

If you end up in ICU you have a high chance of being rehospitalised and a not-negligible chance of dying within a couple of months - latest UK research that was published yesterday. Plus ICU stays are often associated with PTSD and psychological problems afterwards.

These are not trivial issues and all under-50s not in the priority lists are at risk of them.*

Do you have any evidence that the new variant makes everyone vulnerable?
What evidence is there that half of ICUs are under 50s? That doesn't seem to be supported by any data.

@Amidone

September does assume no hitches at all though either in supply or distribution and even without any problematic new variants emerging. I kind of forsee the Government taking it's foot off the pedal once vulnerable groups have been done and other groups that allow education, retail and hospitality to open up again.

Best case scenario though, only another 9 months of this shit to endure!

Well no, best case scenario all adults could have had the jab by June. And cases will naturally fall as we move into spring and summer even without vaccinations, which means restrictions will ease. If you want to take extra precautions that's up to you.

@mrsknottschicken

I sort of feel (don't flame me here peeps) that if they allow shop workers priority before, say, those aged 45-50, that's a little unfair on those of us in that age group who either have to go out to work in an office or some other location, or who have kids at school, because both these things expose you to risk. It feels like the risk of DC spreading the virus is (quite rightly) being considered for teachers but (I'm not sure why) not for parents.

Because shop workers don't exist in a vacuum. They are, largely, women, like yourself presumably, who have children in school, and may have other caring duties, as well as going out to work - its not a job you can do from home, like many office jobs can be - as this whole thing has shown. So, by your line of argument, shop workers, should be pushed further along the que because of their increased level of exposure.

Though I'm sure a thousand people will tell me how their office-based job cannot be done at home, we really cannot manage without food processing and retail.

This seems to give an optimistic view. It was updated yesterday and my husband’s queue (68 years old) was reduced by almost a month since the week before.
www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk#prioritising-who-gets-the-vaccine

@BlindAssassin1 my job can be done at home. In fact, it was before the pandemic and will be afterwards too. I wasn’t talking about myself specifically, but why should a 20 year old shop worker be prioritised over someone aged 45 to 50 (higher risk) with, say, 2 kids in different years at school, or at different schools? Yes, I’m making generalisations but it’s a valid point I believe. We can talk about professions with higher risk, and that’s all valid, but it seems as though the very fact of being a parent (regardless of your occupation) puts you at risk is being forgotten.

I'm cautiously optimistic about the government's promise to vaccinate everyone over 18 by autumn - although of course they have been consistently over-promising and under-delivering...

The big difference with the new variants is that they now see what happens if the virus is allowed to circulate through the younger age groups - just look at Brazil and the new variant emerging in an area that had basically reached herd immunity.

Personally I'm going to stick to my own personal "lockdown" conditions and am fortunate to be able to do so as my work will continue on a WFH basis (it was that before covid times too) and I have no school age children. Ironically the one thing I worry about the most is losing access to the psychotherapy I've been having (private, not NHS) as she is talking about going back to face to face work from late spring (and she's over 60 so will get her own vaccine much sooner than I will!). There's no way I'd want to sit in a small room, talking, for an hour, with just a short gap after the previous client has been in there anytime before I've had my vaccine...

@OliveTree75

**At this stage and with the new variant, anyone can be vulnerable.

Half of critical care beds currently taken up by non-ECV under-50s.

If you end up in ICU you have a high chance of being rehospitalised and a not-negligible chance of dying within a couple of months - latest UK research that was published yesterday. Plus ICU stays are often associated with PTSD and psychological problems afterwards.

These are not trivial issues and all under-50s not in the priority lists are at risk of them.*

Do you have any evidence that the new variant makes everyone vulnerable?
What evidence is there that half of ICUs are under 50s? That doesn't seem to be supported by any data.

I said critical care, which includes high dependency as well as ICU.

The source is Prof. Jeremy Brown of UCL (and JCVI) who said in an interview on the radio last weekend that his own critical care unit had half of its patients not on the vaccination priority lists.
He is a highly trustworthy source.

Other critical care staff do report the same, but less officially.

I did not specifically say that that the new variant affected the young more, but that since there has been the new variant, increasingly under-50s are being hospitalised (that is supported by the statistics). If the average age of a critical care patient with Covid-19 is now 60 (which apparently it is), then statistically there will be approx equal numbers above and above 60 years old.

above and below 60 years old - correction

One of my parents is in a Covid ward at the moment. Everyone there is elderly still - I think the deaths of younger people have been shown to be lower than last time. That said I do think the aged 40s with school aged children should be higher up the priority list

Even with the vaccination, 2020 was the warm up. 2021 will be worse.

I think there's a very real chance of either the vaccine failing because the British government is administering it wrong, or the virus evolving to bypass the vaccine because the British government has allowed it to run rampant.