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Under 50s with no risk factors - how will the rest of 2021 look for us?

144 replies

Amidone · 19/01/2021 09:54

Does anyone expect we will actually be vaccinated with even one dose anytime in 2021? There are already reports that after the current phase 1 groups are completed, teachers, childcare staff, police and shop workers will get next priority and I can see why - I expect teachers might get bumped up the list even quicker if the Gov wants schools reopened. Life will slowly return to more like normal, albeit with distancing and other measures still in place as we still don't know if the vaccines prevent transmission to the unvaccinated or whether the controversial dose spacing approach will give full protection to the vaccinated. I am also unaware of whether anyone knows if the vaccines prevent long Covid. Serious infection seems to be all we know that they help with at the moment so vaccination should reduce hospital pressures.

But for those under 50 and with no health or occupation risk factors, are we going to have to continue to try to dodge Covid until the end of the year, albeit with the reassurance that there'll likely be an ITU bed available for us if we get it badly? Given how lockdown and distancing rules haven't been observed by a significant minority so far, do we think that once vaccinated enough people will continue to put themselves out so to speak, for the protection of others?
I feel quite nervous about it all tbh. I certainly won't be rushing to hug vaccinated family members who may also be hugging other unvaccinated family members.
Can I really expect to avoid Covid infection for the best part of a year and three quarters? Especially as I have school age kids.
Already vaccinated and obviously otherwise healthy older people are telling the TV and radio reporters that they're looking forward to their next holiday abroad soon and trips to the theatre and restaurants. I don't feel able to travel abroad until I've been vaccinated. 2021 feels a write-off still despite the advent of the vaccines. :(

OP posts:
cannotchange · 19/01/2021 13:26

I think this is THE most depressing thread I have ever read - it should come with a health warning, talk about being in the pits of despair and talking up the worse worse case scenario in terms of life not getting back to normal

It is almost reading that if you are 45-50 you will not get the vaccine anytime soon, you get covid and you will end up in ICU

lljkk · 19/01/2021 13:34

I'm over 50 & plan to decline, so that will move someone else up the list mehopes.

Honestly, doomsters & gloomsters you lot.

MarshaBradyo · 19/01/2021 13:35

@lljkk

I'm over 50 & plan to decline, so that will move someone else up the list mehopes.

Honestly, doomsters & gloomsters you lot.

Not everyone responding.

But yeh a fair bit on this thread.

Baileysforchristmas · 19/01/2021 13:36

@cannotchange I couldn’t agree more, Covid mumsnet is the most depressing read, I think I need a break from this and I am in a good place mental health wise, some people on here see no joy in anything.

OliveTree75 · 19/01/2021 13:38

@cannotchange

I think this is THE most depressing thread I have ever read - it should come with a health warning, talk about being in the pits of despair and talking up the worse worse case scenario in terms of life not getting back to normal

It is almost reading that if you are 45-50 you will not get the vaccine anytime soon, you get covid and you will end up in ICU

Agree. Most depressing one I have seen in a while.
Baileysforchristmas · 19/01/2021 13:39

To make everyone feel a bit better i do know of 2 85 year old who had a mild dose of Covid, just lost their taste and smell, the vast majority of people who get it will not end up in hospital, age is still the biggest risk.

cannotchange · 19/01/2021 13:39

I know I need to stop reading on here, stuck at home bored and scrolling. Anything I come on here I can guarantee that it makes me feel down and despairing for the rest of the day

BunnyBoilerRhian · 19/01/2021 13:45

Those of us in Wales stand no chance.
I'm in the 45 to 50 category.
Our first minister is currently holding back vaccines because there will be a pause in supply and he does not want our vaccinated stood around doing nothing.

Last week several surgeries were reporting they had received 50 vaccines for their over 80s. Yes 50 per surgery, not per branch surgery, but per surgery. No idea how many over 80s there are in my surgery but suspect it's many many more than 50.

At this rate the over 80s might be done by summer. The rest of us 2024 maybe??

RockingMyFiftiesNot · 19/01/2021 13:46

@Baileysforchristmas

I read somewhere they are hoping to vaccinate everyone over 18 by September, the UK has ordered 100 million vaccines so hopefully if they can fulfil the order you will be vaccinated by the end of September.
Oh how I hope that this is one date they do make. Cynically I'm not sure they will. Online calculator still telling me Sept for my 2nd shot and I am pushing 60.
Amidone · 19/01/2021 13:51

If we want to help ICU we should be vaxxing the middle aged much sooner....

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1350416428025962498

OP posts:
megletthesecond · 19/01/2021 13:53

I don't think it's depressing. It's reasonable to plan for a cock up and mutations messing up this year.
I didn't go to restaurants etc last year and probably won't this year. My dc's being at school is my risk and I don't want to increase it.

MarshaBradyo · 19/01/2021 13:55

[quote Amidone]If we want to help ICU we should be vaxxing the middle aged much sooner....

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1350416428025962498[/quote]
We’re going pretty fast. Or are you suggesting they / we displace another group?

Amidone · 19/01/2021 13:58

I have an uncle in his 80s. There are over 1000 over 80s at his GP practice. They got 200 vaccines delivered in the first week and used them all in 3 days. It will be a while at this rate! He is in Wales where they've had a whole batch of 20k+ Oxford vaccines be delayed by a week on top of everything.

OP posts:
LegoAndLolDolls · 19/01/2021 13:59

The vaccine calculator was saying this year by summer for me.

Who knows in reality? Uncertainty is the only spice of life right now Grin

OliveTree75 · 19/01/2021 14:00

[quote Amidone]If we want to help ICU we should be vaxxing the middle aged much sooner....

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1350416428025962498[/quote]
But although relatively few people over 65 get infected, they are the majority of people in hospital with Covid - they're much more likely to get really sick.

Vaccinating >70s WILL relieve a lot of pressure on hospitals (by March)."

Interesting thread but I think it makes the opposite point to yours.

Amidone · 19/01/2021 14:00

MarshaBradyo I'm pointing out that there are reasons behind who is prioritised for vaccines and who isn't. But the Twitter author does seem to suggest that if preventing ICU overload (one part of protect the NHS) as opposed to overall death toll, is the main goal, a different strategy could be more effective.

OP posts:
OliveTree75 · 19/01/2021 14:00

Thats a quote from the thread btw

Baileysforchristmas · 19/01/2021 14:00

@megletthesecond each to their own, I went to restaurants every week when we could. I was in London, on the tube, train, had lunch, went to a museum the weekend before this lockdown, never caught anything. I am over 50 and carrying within the guidelines, I can’t live my life in fear, still going into work every day now, fingers crossed I don’t get anything but I could get ill from cancer tomorrow.

MarshaBradyo · 19/01/2021 14:07

@Amidone

MarshaBradyo I'm pointing out that there are reasons behind who is prioritised for vaccines and who isn't. But the Twitter author does seem to suggest that if preventing ICU overload (one part of protect the NHS) as opposed to overall death toll, is the main goal, a different strategy could be more effective.
If objective was to lower ICU cases is the up shot greater deaths?

Also worth thinking about percentage in ICU who are CEV so will get vaccine earlier.

I can’t think through it all atm but interested to hear more esp if people have insight

Amidone · 19/01/2021 14:09

OliveTree75
Yes. But she says this on the same thread:

So vaccinating >70s WON'T help ICUs much. Need to vax middle aged! 4/7

OP posts:
MaxNormal · 19/01/2021 14:10

I'm mid forties and I'd be happy to take my chances now, I can't have the vaccine anyway.

IcedPurple · 19/01/2021 14:14

@Amidone

OliveTree75 Yes. But she says this on the same thread:

So vaccinating >70s WON'T help ICUs much. Need to vax middle aged! 4/7

She's just one person on Twitter. I'm sure she's highly qualified in her field, but it's easy for her to offer opinions when she doesn't have to live with the consequences of them. Imagine if the govt insisted on vaccinating healthy 45 year olds while outbreaks were happening in care homes up and down the country.

Since you appear to agree with this person, which priority group do you believe needs to be de-prioritised, and why?

Amidone · 19/01/2021 14:19

IcedPurple I've not said I agree with Christina Pagel...?

OP posts:
IcedPurple · 19/01/2021 14:23

@Amidone

IcedPurple I've not said I agree with Christina Pagel...?
Well, do you?
Waxonwaxoff0 · 19/01/2021 14:24

thecustomerisalwaysright I'm aware of the risks. And as I said, I'm happy to take my chances.

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