417 dead

[Standandwait]

417 people under 40 have died of CV in hospital in England from when the pandemic began to Jan 16, according to the NHS. Another 4,081 under 60 have died.

This is out of 60,921 total deaths NHS England recorded; by comparison, gov.uk counts 89,261 deaths total in England to Jan. 17, but they don’t break it down by age group. The quickest glance at deaths in care homes suggests those basically explain the difference in the two totals. I assume it's possible to come up with comparable figures for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, too -- I just happen to live in England and got tired.

Lord knows, I'm not looking to "kill granny." I have a lot of dearly beloved family over 80, and am closer than not to 60. I also have a disabled child, which means I know not only him but many other very vulnerable families. I have followed lockdown rules quite faithfully, myself.

But I really, really am beginning to have grave reservations about locking down again and again. If you feel otherwise, please talk me around.

I appreciate the discussion and in the interests of keeping the peace, decline to respond to those few ad-hominem attacks. Standandwait

What ad-hominem attacks Standandwait ? Nobody knows you on an anonymous forum. It's your position that is being attacked. Don't try to get out of it that way,

As someone who usually comes on this site to champion the cause of the elderly in care homes, for all that I can see the OP's point, sort of.

Thing is, this Govt could have taken a different approach to this pandemic and possibly let it run IF it had actually 'thrown a protective ring around care homes' - but they never did and never would. My own experience of my elderly mother was that the State was hell bent on killing her for three years - mainly through dehydration, a bastardisation of the notorious Liverpool Care Pathway - and I managed to avert that. But it's sheer hell in care homes, and my suspicion is that Covid was allowed to run rampant to 'deal with' the 'problem' of adult social care that this Govt has long postponed addressing.

Tell me what regulators such as the CQC or NMC, or Council Safeguarding heads for instance have thrown their toys out of the pram about Covid coming into care homes, or being discharged from hospitals into care homes. Never happened. Their leaders have been cultivated over a decade by this Govt, and it's a State operation.

The result? Well, fatalities are highest in Europe - largely thru deaths in care homes - and the UK is a source of derision. The Conservative's ruthless attitude towards the elderly had crushed the economy. No public body, no regulator has ever been sincere in protecting the elderly who are frankly economically non-viable and in the same category as those on welfare, the homeless or any black second-generation immigrant who is of a certain age and might be deported if they don't have the current paper work.

Throw in the cavalier attitude to letting the virus into the country early on, then the risible track and trace - outsourced to known incompetents - and even if you agree with the OP's proposition, it could never have happened, thanks to this 'wing and a prayer' government of cocky incompetents. So we are where we are. Local elections in England still on for May, btw.

I honestly don’t understand these posts. If the old lady next doors house was burning down, I honestly believe most human being would run into a burning building to save her.

The lockdown saves more lives. Do what you are asked to do, which for most of us is stay home and cope with the worry and the fallout. Tell your children how very proud you are of them. Tell yourself. Sometimes the brave and heroic thing is long and slow and not very glamorous and certainly not fun.

BTW should immediately add that I'm not sure it WOULD have been wisest to let this pandemic run - long Covid is dreadful and deaths from that not counted, so the rate is higher than announced daily - but just saying that the way this Govt has treated the elderly and the lack of any protection, it was never an option anyway.

Plus, if we hadn't locked down, the £400 billion the government committed in 2020 alone to shore up bankrupt workers and businesses could have gone to the NHS instead -- which would have tripled its budget from about £200b now. That's without going into the longterm costs of educational interruptions etc for the younger people who will presumably be paying all that back in tax.

but it's my understanding the NHS is here to look after us, not the other way around
Then you don't understand how the NHS works and rushing away to Google some stats is no substitute for actually caring about the issues.
The NHS is only there if we look after it - by paying our taxes; by voting for parties that fund, prioritise and protect it. And, in times of pandemic, by doing everything we can not to overwhelm it.

If anyone thinks that ITU is full of 80 year olds they are very wrong. The elderly frail are being "treated" in the community or in makeshift converted Covid wards as there is little hope of them recovering even with ITU treatment and the trusts can't risk blocking up all the ITU beds.
I have lost young (30s and 40s) and fit healthy colleagues to this bastard disease and a young (in their 20s) neighbour, who had no additional risk factors (oh wait, they were BAME, does that not count either then OP?).
I work in a makeshift Covid ward, there are no respiratory nurses, no specialist consultants. We are doing the best we can, but we are working way outside of our skill set and are not equipped to do our current role.
As you can imagine, staff morale is on the floor. My hair is literally falling out in handfuls, my face is covered in spots from wearing the PPE. I am still recovering from Covid myself.

The NHS is not in danger of being overwhelmed, it already is overwhelmed and has been for weeks.

But hey, go ahead OP, let virus do its worst. Get the grannies out of the way and all will be right eh?

Actually I'm definitely not pushing granny under the bus. The government hasn't needed any help doing that.

That's NHS England what about the rest of the U.K.?

My family member was under 40 when she died, last October, no other health issues, no risk factors, but she took longer than 28 days to die (first diagnosed in spring) so doesn't show in any ONS stats at present, because they're only for those who died within 28 days.

Also worth remembering that the "total deaths" from covid, those with covid on death certificates (which are generally considered to be those who died outside the 28 day window) currently stands at 89,245 whereas the deaths (currently) within 28 days is 89,261. That's from the ONS and the "total deaths" hasn't been updated for at least two weeks if not longer.

My point being with everything back in lockdown the so called total number will remain stalled, my family member isn't in either of those stats. She won't be alone in that. Also UK doesn't equal England.

Her partner didn't die but has long covid. And two children to care for alone. Another family member lost her baby and nearly her life due to lack of treatment. I know someone with diabetes who went blind from it and has long covid as well (no support for going blind as clinics all closed here).

I've had no medical care at all for ten months and have a condition that becomes terminal. I was given two years in December 2018 and told support and treatment needed to be begun in March 2020 to help support me with this - it's not happened. I've had a letter informing me I won't get treated if I get covid - that sounds brutal but I cannot have a ventilator due to the seriousness of my illness, and as I was told this last March isn't news anyway, most people with my illness at the stage it is die if they contract covid.

@Cocopogo

Yes I wonder how many younger people are dying from cancer and other conditions because they aren’t getting the treatment they need

And how much worse that would be if we hadn't locked down?

It also seems you don't understand economics. And if, ten months in, you don't understand the NHS, economics or Covid, I seriously doubt this thread is going to help you.

the £400 billion the government committed in 2020 alone to shore up bankrupt workers and businesses could have gone to the NHS instead

Do you think doctors and nurses are sitting around unemployed waiting to be called on? That ventilator manufacturers have stock just sitting waiting for us to buy it? That there is a fully functional hospital we can just buy and start running?

Money won't help the NHS in the short term. Investment has been needed for decades, not months!

serin I can sadly imagine.

@Serin

If anyone thinks that ITU is full of 80 year olds they are very wrong. The elderly frail are being "treated" in the community or in makeshift converted Covid wards as there is little hope of them recovering even with ITU treatment and the trusts can't risk blocking up all the ITU beds. I have lost young (30s and 40s) and fit healthy colleagues to this bastard disease and a young (in their 20s) neighbour, who had no additional risk factors (oh wait, they were BAME, does that not count either then OP?). I work in a makeshift Covid ward, there are no respiratory nurses, no specialist consultants. We are doing the best we can, but we are working way outside of our skill set and are not equipped to do our current role. As you can imagine, staff morale is on the floor. My hair is literally falling out in handfuls, my face is covered in spots from wearing the PPE. I am still recovering from Covid myself.

The NHS is not in danger of being overwhelmed, it already is overwhelmed and has been for weeks.

But hey, go ahead OP, let virus do its worst. Get the grannies out of the way and all will be right eh?

Serin, big thanks to you and your colleagues. I pray you all find the strength to recover emotionally from this. Your efforts will never be forgotten by the people who you've helped.

Whoever gets sick, overloaded hospitals would be extremely serious, as both Covid and non-Covid patients with survivable conditions wouldn't get treated.

On the other hand, there are genuine reasons to think lockdowns aren't nearly as effective as some people say they are, and they're certainly not some sort of get-out-of-jail-free card. It's a big problem and there aren't any easy answers.

Hospitalisations are quite high in the under 50s. And long term damage from this virus will ultimately have a greater impact (economically and socially) than deaths IMO.

Interesting info from the Telegraph today:

Almost a third of recovered Covid patients will end up back in hospital within five months and one in eight will die, alarming new figures have shown.

Research by Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found there is a devastating long-term toll on survivors of severe coronavirus, with many people developing heart problems, diabetes and chronic liver and kidney conditions.

Out of 47,780 people who were discharged from hospital in the first wave, 29.4 per cent were readmitted to hospital within 140 days, and 12.3 per cent of the total died.

The current cut-off point for recording Covid deaths is 28 days after a positive test, so it may mean thousands more people should be included in the coronavirus death statistics.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/17/almost-third-recovered-covid-patients-return-hospital-five-months/

This is a nasty virus and it must be taken seriously. Nobody in their 30s or 40s should be rushed back to 100% normal life before the vaccine is offered to them.

The USA has barely had any lockdowns, and they have been local. Our death toll stands at over 400,000 to date. And there you have it.

Of course the NHS has been grotesquely underfunded for years by the Tories. But you can't correct that by one year of throwing funding at the NHS. It takes many years to train highly skilled staff.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-nearly-a-third-of-coronavirus-patients-were-readmitted-to-hospital-within-140-days-study-suggests-12190897

@Mamanyt

The USA has barely had any lockdowns, and they have been local. Our death toll stands at over 400,000 to date. And there you have it.

Deaths per million in UK 1,298.6 US 1,178.6 (Statista.com, full year 2020)

or per 100,000
UK 1.6
US 1.0 (FT, Sept 2020 - Nov 2021)

And there indeed you have it. It's painfully unclear, for sure.

@Icenii

It's always granny isn't it. A fraile, little old lady that has become the symbol of disdain for many people. Never grandad.

At least one in 20 people who survive covid have Long Covid, which at the moment we don't know if it's a "temporary" (10 months and counting) affliction or a permanent disability.

if you are one of the one in 20: welcome to a world of fatigue and pain! I have had months-long periods when I was too tired to sit upright on the sofa for more than an hour. I have had months of pain. I have had several months when I was both fatigued and in pain, and the pain increased on lying down. I leave that to your imagination as to how that went, when you are too tired to remain upright but it's agony to lie down.

For everyone else: if 5% of covid survivors have debilitating, so far untreatable illnesses, then that's an awful lot of people who are suddenly not only economically inactive, but who may need a carer. At the moment I can live sort-of-independently, but I can't, for example, put on a bra or change my bed, and I really struggle to get out of the bath. At this time last year I was active and working.

Speaking of carers: the demographic most likely to get Long Covid seems to be women in their 40s and 50s, who are overrepresented as unpaid carers, both of the generation above them and the generation below. Good luck in finding people to wipe your bum, or your grandpa's bum, if there's a 5% drop in the people available to provide unpaid care, and a greater-than-5% increase in the people who need care (ie the Long Covid sufferers and those they previously cared for).

25% of those in hospital right now are under 55. Many of them will get long Covid.

As many as 10% of all
Infected (not just hospitalised) develop long Covid. Mostly healthy people.

It’s not just deaths you have to look at. Tens of thousands are having to have hospital treatment, including lots of under 50’s. No lockdown means tens of thousands getting it, and the nhs won’t cope

It will also mean those with non covid illnesses including heart attacks, broken bones etc won’t get treated

You can’t just look at the death figures. And let’s not forget that people shouldn’t have to die earlier than they need to

More and more I think we should just respond to threads like this with: No.

Talk me round? No.
Explain to me the facts I've been ignoring? No
Tell me why I'm not the exception and should follow the experts? No.

Because there is screeds if information available and if people choose to ignore it or wilfully misinterpret it then a thread on here isn't going to change their mind and their half-cocked theories don't deserve further publicity or time. The most they merit is a grey rock.