Back to school after half term?

[SpringSunshineandTulips]

I really can’t see it. 🥲 4 weeks of this term and then a week of half term. So 5 more weeks. I can’t see that 5 weeks today things will be that different that we are sending our kids back. I really hope I’m wrong though.

It's been hinted that schools may not be back by March possibly April. They may start with a phased return.

1. I love your username (similar to mine)!

2. I agree, I would love them to go back but the data has a couple of weeks lag and therefore I’m not sure they’ll be in a position come mid feb. Albeit the most vulnerable look set to be vaccinated by then so this could change the outlook?

Phased returns will not happen. That is because schools are full of KWV children. One thing I can guarantee is any phased return like June is off the cards. It was only possible because the numbers in school were low.

@Bringonspring

1) I love your username (similar to mine)!

2. I agree, I would love them to go back but the data has a couple of weeks lag and therefore I’m not sure they’ll be in a position come mid feb. Albeit the most vulnerable look set to be vaccinated by then so this could change the outlook?

They won’t. Hospitals in the south have like Portsmouth are really struggling. 74 people in a 24 ITU capacity and no where near the peak. These are younger people in hospital for months. The same thing is being replicated in the NW and in the SW.

The infection figures look good but like the head of NHS England has just said, it is its worst crisis ever. They can’t ‘open’ schools when the NHS is bursting. That’s the whole point of lockdown.

But if all the people most likely to end up in ICU are vaccinated then why can't children go back to school?

I’m expecting the return to be after the Easter hols - anything earlier would be a bonus, but I can’t see it happening sadly

@Tryingtryingandtrying

But if all the people most likely to end up in ICU are vaccinated then why can't children go back to school?

Because they aren’t. Most of the people in ICU are young. The majority under 60.

Over 50s are quite high up the list for vaccines. I thought we were vaccinating those most likely to have serious complications?

Many schools are not packed with keyworker/vulnerable children, even less so secondary schools. As secondary schools had higher transmission Possibly year 10, 11,12,13 will go back sooner. I don’t think phased return worked particularly well in primary anyway. I also think they have already made it clear we’ll be going back to tiers, possibly that will include schools

@Tryingtryingandtrying

Over 50s are quite high up the list for vaccines. I thought we were vaccinating those most likely to have serious complications?

Well that’s the issue. The vaccine is actually to stop people dying. It’s being given to people who are at risk of dying. It’s 30, 40, 50 year olds in ITU. Fit and healthy ones too. That’s the problem.

@BungleandGeorge

Many schools are not packed with keyworker/vulnerable children, even less so secondary schools. As secondary schools had higher transmission Possibly year 10, 11,12,13 will go back sooner. I don’t think phased return worked particularly well in primary anyway. I also think they have already made it clear we’ll be going back to tiers, possibly that will include schools

Yr 11 and yr 13 will go back before the other 2 out of that group. The majority of primary will not be able to accommodate a phased return. That’s just a fact, the DfE attendance data backs that up. There are too many KWV in compared to last time. So it won’t happen.

Don't think over 50s are scheduled to have the vaccine (the first dose) until about April

The rates of 46 to 64 critically ill in hospital is around 10 times less than those in the oldest age group. 85 plus I think.
Under 44 is very small. Nhs could easily manage those numbers.

The average age on ITU is 60, the majority can’t be younger than that

@Tryingtryingandtrying

The rates of 46 to 64 critically ill in hospital is around 10 times less than those in the oldest age group. 85 plus I think. Under 44 is very small. Nhs could easily manage those numbers.

Oh really, I’ll pass your knowledge on to the two medical professionals I know working on COVID wards in two separate trusts who say different. The oldest patients don’t get to ITU, they die or the decision is made they wouldn’t survive the procedures.

Most of the people in ITU are younger, NHS trusts are not coping. Hence why the man in charge of NHS England has just done another press release.

Honestly, the ignorance is staggering.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-55586994

Most of the people in ICU are not under 60.

@Itisasecret
Do you have the national figures for primary? They were quoting 1 in 6 had 30% or more, has that changed? I guess most of us have no idea. I don’t see much point personally, might as well get them all back. If anything a total would be better than phased return as it was really unfair on the ones who didn’t get anytime in school until September last time. Or look at the local picture of infection rates

@itisasecret I got my info from national statistics after a quick Google.

@GoldGreen

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-55586994

Most of the people in ICU are not under 60.

In some hospitals that is what is happening because of this (from that article). Which is the point. It is also why inexperienced staff are working in ITU on ratios of 4:1. More and more young people are in ITU and they are living but they need a lot of help to do so. That’s why schools will not go back. Some hospitals are in a desperate state.

It’s not fucking rocket science.

@GoldGreen

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-55586994

Most of the people in ICU are not under 60.

Um. The data you link to shows c.52K under 65 admitted Sep to Jan, vs c 32K over 85s.

[quote BungleandGeorge]@Itisasecret
Do you have the national figures for primary? They were quoting 1 in 6 had 30% or more, has that changed? I guess most of us have no idea. I don’t see much point personally, might as well get them all back. If anything a total would be better than phased return as it was really unfair on the ones who didn’t get anytime in school until September last time. Or look at the local picture of infection rates[/quote]
Yes they have released more data. All or nothing is where I stand. I’d rather they were all back sooner rather than later. I just don’t see it with the state hospitals are in.

Nhs trusts are not coping, esp in some areas. I'm not arguing with that, but by protecting all those in the most vulnerable age groups the trusts could then cope.

The 65-85 band is really broad. Iffy data tbh. Would be much more useful to see a) how long each group stay in hospital and b) rates of recovery at different age bands. Anyone seen that?

Although actually those numbers are rates per 100000 rather than counts...

@Itisasecret

Phased returns will not happen. That is because schools are full of KWV children. One thing I can guarantee is any phased return like June is off the cards. It was only possible because the numbers in school were low.

That's depressing.

Especially as I'm aware of quite a few people wfh putting kids in school when they could have em home.