Back to school after half term?

[SpringSunshineandTulips]

I really can’t see it. 🥲 4 weeks of this term and then a week of half term. So 5 more weeks. I can’t see that 5 weeks today things will be that different that we are sending our kids back. I really hope I’m wrong though.

@purplebagladylovesgin

If they can get the over 50+ top 9 groups vaccinated by Easter then I think it's safe to say things will start opening up by then. Slowly but cautiously opening. I hope it will be open one thing and watch the numbers.

Schools have always been a priority, they just need to think carefully about how we make them safe, they were never safe.

With mass vaccination centres and the capacity to vaccinate 3million a week by spring, as this is when vaccine supplies should become plentiful, this whole sorry mess should be behind us by mid summer, early autumn.

Then we start boosters for the new variants.....

But you need to wait 22 days after the first vaccination for it to become effective...

How can people thinks kids are better off with no face to face learning. The isolation alone is doing damage to children. Schools will be the first things to reopen.

Just reading that it looks like they will re introduce the tiering system in March, I think we could see regional differences therefore. I think primary will go back in March with critical secondary years then remaining post Easter.

I can see schools going back halfway through term 4. The start of term 4 is possible but looks a little risky.

@Tryingtryingandtrying
Over 50s are quite high up the list for vaccines.

Over 50s are at the bottom of the 9 groups on the current list. 50-54 are Group 9 and 55-59 are Group 8.
I'm in Group 5 (65-69) and have been told to expect my first jab in mid-March.

Term is due to end at the end of March

We are nitnyet at the hospital peak, as the hideous level of positive tests was only just over a week ago, they'll be arriving into already full hospitals about now.

And then the numbers testing positive continue high enough to be a problem for NHS (if they weren't just following an even worse peak, we'dmsee them as worryingly high which they still are in terms of hospital capacity), so no let up based on this week's figures, even though mercifully they are down from where they were

I think it will be some weeks yet before we can move off Alert 5

I think for schools, it would be prudent to expect after Easter, but reasonable to hope it might happen in late March, even if that's just a short 'reacquaint' period rather than getting into the swing of full term

If a whole term is online, and given the level of disruption to the autumn term and likely continuing disruption in the next months (as SI will still be required), the DofE needs to start planning exams for 2022 now, as well as working out how to be fair in 2021. It would be better to announce slimmed down examination topics (the abandoned plan for 2021) to avoid a third year of last minute changes

[quote TibetanTerrier]@Tryingtryingandtrying
Over 50s are quite high up the list for vaccines.

Over 50s are at the bottom of the 9 groups on the current list. 50-54 are Group 9 and 55-59 are Group 8.
I'm in Group 5 (65-69) and have been told to expect my first jab in mid-March.[/quote]
I’m in group 4 and BBC said yesterday that they’re starting on groups 3&4 this week.

So yes still several million before you, but they’re meant to be all done by mid-Feb. So timetable is holding

Vaccinations are happening at a pace Faster than I had dared hope for. Approx one million every 3 days. Once over 80s vaccinated, I would be using a 3 day slot to vaccinate the approx 1m school workers, to balance the needs of young and old in the country and vastly increase the chance that we can get children back to school after half term.

@Tryingtryingandtrying

But if all the people most likely to end up in ICU are vaccinated then why can't children go back to school?

Near us, a rather sizeable percentage of ICU Covid patients are previously fit and well younger people (under 50) and not just the typically older / clinically vulnerable people that they'd expected.

I'm desperate for my children to get back to school - not necessarily for academic reasons as their school/college's have been amazing with the standard of virtual learning as been amazing - but more for their need to be with children of their own age.

DS1 is 17, he has been with his peers once in 2 months (due to isolation and virtual lessons before Christmas). He attends college in a different area, and his friends either live there or travel in like him. So for him to meet one for a walk we'd have to risk breaking the "stay local" rule to get him there . This isolation just isn't healthy.

Some children might be happy. My 12 year old is so miserable she's self harming.

What exactly will have changed by Easter? NONE of the children will have been vaccinated. Most of the teachers not either as is our schools almost all are under 50.

They will vaccinate, the virus is already mutating (Brazil and South Africa strain) and some mutations will be ones that the vaccine won't cover.

Then what.
We leave society in limbo for ever?

The government is still letting people in to "self isolate at home ". We all know they don't. Many who have to self isolate at home are not obeying the rules.

Most are no more sick than the flu. I think vaccinating needs to be far quicker. Register online , like for testing, get a qr code, drive/walk through vaccine centres.

Society back to normal asap. Mass very regular testing in place everywhere.

Lockdown is a farce. Restaurant and pubs should shut. DIY hardware should shut. No building work, cleaning etc to happen in homes being lived in. Alcohol shops to shut. How are they "essential" but school isn't? No click and collect from clothes shops. Delivery only. Same with supermarkets.

Tesco was packed when I attended.
Can't go outside the front door as so many are walking and "exercising" and standing around talking. My house is on a major walking route. To leave, I walk through many groups.

@Loftyloft

Vaccinations are happening at a pace Faster than I had dared hope for. Approx one million every 3 days. Once over 80s vaccinated, I would be using a 3 day slot to vaccinate the approx 1m school workers, to balance the needs of young and old in the country and vastly increase the chance that we can get children back to school after half term.

That wouldn't help the hospitals though. So you would have school staff done but hospital admissions and the death rate still rising or at a level.

We can't just kill people to open schools. It doesn't work like that.

The first jab for the priority list will be finished by end of March that is their aim. I actually think it will be mid March judging by the amount of ramping up planned and how we are doing so far.

A lot of school staff that are vulnerable or over 50 will be done anyway. Hopefully they will also sort out a keyworker priority list to use up any end of day wastage before then too.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

First a large percentage of the younger patients in ICU are actually in groups 4 or 6 on the priority list. A London consultant was saying that on the BBC news. Also it has been stated before but makes a rubbish news story.

They aim to vaccinate the last group over 50s by the end of March.

Secondly Rab says March is hopefully when they will start lowering restrictions. I would guess they will open schools then if possible.

I agree. They've stated schools will go back before anything else opens. They will be desperate to have shops open at Easter. Provided community infection rates continue to reduce I think mid March for a return. Even if it's just primary or even just KS1 that will allow them to say 'we're reopening schools so can reduce most areas to tier 3'.

I think people are foolishly thinking it's all ICU capacity that's the issue. Many Covid cases are on respiratory wards on CPAP. That also requires oxygen and increased staffing levels to monitor. Those patients tend to be younger.

Re children and schooling. My 15 year old is doing much better learning at home. She has a big group of friends and they communicate virtually, have quiz nights etc. I would prefer a Sept 21 restart when it's safe for everyone including teachers. Long Covid ruins lives too.

@lovelemoncurd

I think people are foolishly thinking it's all ICU capacity that's the issue. Many Covid cases are on respiratory wards on CPAP. That also requires oxygen and increased staffing levels to monitor. Those patients tend to be younger.

Re children and schooling. My 15 year old is doing much better learning at home. She has a big group of friends and they communicate virtually, have quiz nights etc. I would prefer a Sept 21 restart when it's safe for everyone including teachers. Long Covid ruins lives too.

I am very happy for your daughter that is nice to here but can imagine for every 10 kids that are fine 1 children won't be. Various reasons for this I am sure.

As for hospitals it is all over the news that 25% admissions are the young. So that means 75% are not!

Plus a percentage of those young will be on the priority list in groups 4 & 6.

They age never really said after half term though. What they said was 1st 4 groups done by mid Feb then you need to allow a few weeks for it to become effective, so always looked like after Easter. With the ramping up of the vaccine programme they aim to have all 9 priority groups done by end March, hopefully before. You then have the two week Easter holidays so very likely after Easter would be the aim for schools to re-open. Maybe back to tiers so schools in tier 4 may wait longer to open.

Then phase 2 would start with priority given to high risk occupations like teachers.

I’m hoping by September there will be plans to vaccinate at least secondary school pupils otherwise they will still be constantly having to miss school self isolating and spreading it amongst themselves risking further mutations within their age group.

I'm hoping we go back to tiers and that schools are part of that. In my area of the North rates, hospitalisations and deaths are all lower than in November when all the kids were at school and are falling. We have also vaccinated all care home home residents and almost all our over 80s. It seems daft to keep our children out of school when things are seemingly better than when they were in. I would like to see teachers police and similar jobs put further up the vaccine list though, I'm not a teacher but I was and now work in a similar public facing role, I don't think they have been treated well.

Our school seem to think half term, and are planning accordingly. Maybe they will start with those taking GCSEs and Alevels as before.

@SexTrainGlue

Term is due to end at the end of March

We are nitnyet at the hospital peak, as the hideous level of positive tests was only just over a week ago, they'll be arriving into already full hospitals about now.

And then the numbers testing positive continue high enough to be a problem for NHS (if they weren't just following an even worse peak, we'dmsee them as worryingly high which they still are in terms of hospital capacity), so no let up based on this week's figures, even though mercifully they are down from where they were

I think it will be some weeks yet before we can move off Alert 5

I think for schools, it would be prudent to expect after Easter, but reasonable to hope it might happen in late March, even if that's just a short 'reacquaint' period rather than getting into the swing of full term

If a whole term is online, and given the level of disruption to the autumn term and likely continuing disruption in the next months (as SI will still be required), the DofE needs to start planning exams for 2022 now, as well as working out how to be fair in 2021. It would be better to announce slimmed down examination topics (the abandoned plan for 2021) to avoid a third year of last minute changes

No chance, they haven’t sorted exams out for 2021 yet.

Despite having a huge heads up, they are now in consolation. They can’t sort 2022 when they haven’t sorted this year.

I am lucky ish, neither dc is in a critical exam year and although one was year 7 and therefore bonding with new class has been massively affected that may help with something I'm planning. Younger dd is in touch with friends via on line gaming and phone calls.

However I do feel for teens who are missing out on rites of passage socially, uni students, those with exams, and so on.

However I know that it's not a black and white situation at all and whilst so many don't do as well on line, actually many dc find school scary, overwhelming, noisy, difficult and they much prefer learning from home. There are very happy, less anxious children out there because they have this break from a school building...

I don't think they'll go back straight after February half term and would imagine lockdown will be extended at the February review. I think in March at some point we'll go back to tiers and then schools will open- however they might well keep tier 4 as it is now and keep the schools closed in tier 4.

@lovelemoncurd

I think people are foolishly thinking it's all ICU capacity that's the issue. Many Covid cases are on respiratory wards on CPAP. That also requires oxygen and increased staffing levels to monitor. Those patients tend to be younger.

Re children and schooling. My 15 year old is doing much better learning at home. She has a big group of friends and they communicate virtually, have quiz nights etc. I would prefer a Sept 21 restart when it's safe for everyone including teachers. Long Covid ruins lives too.

That's nice for your daughter, but it's only been 2 weeks and my 7yo has turned from a pretty chilled out little boy to an angry, over-emotional monster.

Lockdown 1 was an adventure for the first week, and the change in him was gradual. This time round he knows it's going to be a good while before he goes back or can do anything fun. I'm doing my best to keep him occupied with lots of fun activities, but he misses school and he misses all the things he used to be able to do.

I've never really understood why the end of lockdown is pegged to vaccination rates.

We came out of the March lockdown at a time when the NHS could cope, and the R rate was such that it was not thought there would be another explosion in rates from loosening the restrictions. Surely that should be the criteria for coming out of this lockdown?

If the vaccine development happened to have taken e.g. an additional 9 months (which it very easily might have done), are we saying we would have been in complete lockdown, schools closed until next year?

Despite having a huge heads up, they are now in consolation. They can’t sort 2022 when they haven’t sorted this year

It's a whole Department of State. I'm sure they can find a planning team, if they have any motivation at all to avoid a third year of clusterfuck.

There are only approx 5500 icu beds in uk so it’s wrong to say thousands of younger people are on icu

My local hospital icu is full but then no one publishes that it’s full because it only actually has 6 beds!!

And whilst some on their 50s may be in icu, almost all I imagine have underlying issues

Liverpool for example - Knowsley currently has highest rate in England - 85% of new cases are under 60 which us why our hospitalisation are currently half that of October when our rate was lower and we were only region in tier 3

Raab said yesterday he expects us to go to tiers in March and schools open in tiers