Back to school after half term?

[SpringSunshineandTulips]

I really can’t see it. 🥲 4 weeks of this term and then a week of half term. So 5 more weeks. I can’t see that 5 weeks today things will be that different that we are sending our kids back. I really hope I’m wrong though.

@ReadingTeaLeaves and the biggest group admitted to ICU is 65-75.

I’m not saying there are not huge pressure on the NHS and ICU, just it’s incorrect to say that majority of patients ICU are under 60s.

[quote GoldGreen]@ReadingTeaLeaves and the biggest group admitted to ICU is 65-75.

I’m not saying there are not huge pressure on the NHS and ICU, just it’s incorrect to say that majority of patients ICU are under 60s.[/quote]
Is not, the average age is 60 (taken from that article). The issue is, the older people are the more likely they are to die. The younger ones are surviving and taking up ITU space. That’s the problem, the article you linked articulates that.

@breadwidow I agree - it does concern me that children will be kept out due to others being in. Fine for genuine KW/vulnerable children but, the widening of the definition of vulnerable (e.g no quiet place to work - could apply to any child with a sibling!) has really opened this up.

Thinking about the last lockdown, and how children slipped back, this has the potential to do far greater damage. Schools at least reopened to some year groups after 8 week (end of Spring term and first half of summer). If all children are off for the whole spring term, that is potentially a massive loss of learning. Appreciate why they are off, but if it goes beyond that, there needs to be major planning to catch them up.

[quote MrsTravers]@breadwidow I agree - it does concern me that children will be kept out due to others being in. Fine for genuine KW/vulnerable children but, the widening of the definition of vulnerable (e.g no quiet place to work - could apply to any child with a sibling!) has really opened this up.

Thinking about the last lockdown, and how children slipped back, this has the potential to do far greater damage. Schools at least reopened to some year groups after 8 week (end of Spring term and first half of summer). If all children are off for the whole spring term, that is potentially a massive loss of learning. Appreciate why they are off, but if it goes beyond that, there needs to be major planning to catch them up.[/quote]
Slipped back from what? Some random target decided by someone. Some children have actually improved in their learning as a result of schools being closed. Some children haven’t. It really bugs me that people can only ever see the bad side of schools being closed. Sorry it is a touchy subject for me. I have 3 kids. None of whom were coping in school. All have gone from strength to strength in the time they were out of school. Two sides to every coin.

If your children do better at home then there is the option to home educate longer term.

I’d be interested to know what the percentage of children attending school is if anyone has it?
The vaccine will change the position enormously. Sadly I can’t see them going back en made before Easter holidays. I think at least year 11 will since they are having ‘tests’ in may, possibly year 10 as well. Most back after easter when the combination of lockdown and vaccinations will have brought the numbers and hospital admissions down substantially. I agree that ITU capacity is different to general ward capacity as some people will stay on there a long time. I expect staff will be expected to cover and there will be reduced surgeries that require ITU afterwards. So not back to normal

@Tryingtryingandtrying

If your children do better at home then there is the option to home educate longer term.

True but the authorities are far less accommodating regarding home education when the rest of the country is back in school.

After Easter if we're lucky.

How do they catch up basically a whole year of school work though?

@lifeonhardmodept2 based on the entirely unscientific evidence of my own experience - I work with primary schools and that was the outcome of autumn assessments based on teacher assessments.

It also applies to my own 4 DC. I can see that they have slipped back too. I am sorry that this is not the case for you but, after supporting one DC through 2 years of misery at school and finally having got her settled and happy somewhere, I find it very frustrating to see her unable to attend.

And I can see the impact on my other children. It's not good for them.

Some schools within England (possibly elsewhere in the UK) are apparently not closed to in person schooling despite the clear foreseeable Covid risks. There have unsurprisingly been both a very small percentage of fatalities (adults mostly) but much Covid incubation and transmission amongst all those in regular extended period indoor close proximity and no material personal protective measures. Many schools have basically continued despite the commonplace risks as possibly long term health and well-being less critical than short term convenience. Basic science prove it is a matter of time as to likely extent of potential Covid exposure before the inevitable.

Therefore I would guess some schools will remain open but most schools will inevitably adopt (sometimes unfortunately superficial) Covid smart distanced options that eliminate Covid incubation and onwards transmission.

It is foreseeable that the UK Covid health landscape will eventually improve (now that we may have hopefully reached peak Covid) over the summer months so much so that the next academic year commencing September 2021 may be back to new normal of traditional in person schooling. This depends on availability of vaccines which can adequately accommodate mutations and importantly two dose vaccination. Preferably children too as they are not evidently scientifically exempt from Covid as per the small percentage of fatalities but larger percentage of infection and onwards transmission.

So in short I am hopeful for normal schooling for most pupils from September 2021.

I only wish all people finally take this disease seriously and be more community empathic rather than individualistic and by extension recklessly selfish - as otherwise we would have not been so world class bad. Evidently it is super spreading and mutating because of our actions today which impact the Covid health outcomes tomorrow as we within the UK unlike many overseas do not understand basic science of potential Covid exposure and footprint.

I will eat my hat if UK schools all return before the summer (2021)!

I can't see them back until after Easter and I would prefer to have them at home to help the NHS get back on its feet, mass vaccinate and hopefully get out of this mess a lot quicker.

I also don't agree that every child will be disadvantaged. Both of my DS's are far better off academically wise at home. DS1 has SEN (13 yo) so struggles either way but without distractions from classmates he is knuckling down and getting on with his work. He has actively chose a book and is reading it at the moment which he has never done ever. DS2 (8 yo) has mild dyslexia. He is doing so so well as he hasn't got the confidence in class but at home is getting lots of 1:1 time with me. DD1 (16 yo) is missing out as she hates the zoom lessons and DD2 (4 yo) is missing out as she is still at nursery so missing out on all that social interaction and early years stuff. It's swings and roundabouts. Some kids will be worse off and some won't.

@BungleandGeorge link here: explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak#releaseHeadlines-summary

For w/c 11 Jan, looks like 20% in primaries, 4% in secondaries. Higher for other settings which remain open.

If they can get the over 50+ top 9 groups vaccinated by Easter then I think it's safe to say things will start opening up by then. Slowly but cautiously opening. I hope it will be open one thing and watch the numbers.

Schools have always been a priority, they just need to think carefully about how we make them safe, they were never safe.

With mass vaccination centres and the capacity to vaccinate 3million a week by spring, as this is when vaccine supplies should become plentiful, this whole sorry mess should be behind us by mid summer, early autumn.

Then we start boosters for the new variants.....

So in short I am hopeful for normal schooling for most pupils from September 2021. Until the next Dec/Jan lockdown. Perhaps it'll become 1 term in, 1 term out, 1 term in

I think it will be Easter .......but I'm happy to play the long games if it gets us a bit further towards normality.

@MrsTravers thank you that’s interesting

So you dont think vaccination will make any difference then @SleepingStandingUp?

Easter at the earliest. I’m another one who thinks plenty of kids (the majority in many schools) are fine and won’t suffer as a result of home learning.

I think children will probably be able to go back after Easter if vaccination goes well, ie. at increasingly higher daily rates. Lets just hope they vaccinate teachers and other school staff too!

To the people having the ICU conversation, it’s also about the numbers in high dependency units. They may not be in ICU but they are also being supported with oxygen and require a lot of intensive care.

If they want schools open, they need to vaccinate teachers, school staff and all the adults who live with school-aged children.

@Porcupineintherough

So you dont think vaccination will make any difference then *@SleepingStandingUp*?

I think I'm just a bit out of hope, very happy to be wrong. There's so much about it not stopping it showing, not stopping to getting it just hopefully making it less severe, there's all the people who will refuse it because of some paranoia or another and that's before we get to mutations. I just don't see a way out of this. I've got three kids at home and I don't see how things will ever be normal, it'll be this one on mutation repeat and then another one will come along and then another

If they want schools open, they need to vaccinate teachers, school staff and all the adults who live with school-aged children.

Agree

On the how do we catch kids up worry... our curriculum is pants. Sorry but it is (blame Gove not teachers). We could have taken this chance to rejig it, at least at primary level. Get rid of sats and archaic over academic learning and testing too young and change it for the better in a way that meant no one is behind.

No one is behind anyway. Behind what? It’s a global pandemic and many countries and areas still haven’t opened schools fully. Give the kids a break.

Gavin won’t do anything positive though. Too much like work and decisive action for him.

First a large percentage of the younger patients in ICU are actually in groups 4 or 6 on the priority list. A London consultant was saying that on the BBC news. Also it has been stated before but makes a rubbish news story.

They aim to vaccinate the last group over 50s by the end of March.

Secondly Rab says March is hopefully when they will start lowering restrictions. I would guess they will open schools then if possible.