Lockdown will claim 560,000 lives. Are lockdown fanatics are killing people.

[Billie18]

Worrying reports coming out indicating that Lockdowns will end up claiming the equivalent of more than 500,000 lives because of the health impact of the 'deep and prolonged recession that they will cause. It has been obvious that restrictive lock down measures will impact on the health of the whole population but concern has been shouted down by those in favor of lockdowns. But will those ignoring the dangers of lockdowns on the entire population be responsible for killing huge numbers of people. Killing far more people than any virus.

@Fizbosshoes

Why would anyone die because of lockdown? What nonsense is this? Staying at home does not kill people.

Plenty of people will (and have) die(d) because of lockdown. Some examples are -

• Without being able to go out or access the correct support , some people with MH problems will commit suicide.
• Without a smear test (either because it was cancelled or they felt discouraged to go) some people will not know they have cervical cancer, until it is too late to treat.
• Without dental check ups, some oral cancer will go undetected, the the person will die.
• A person with a heart problem misses their apt because they are too fearful to go to a hospital..

Those are more immediate examples but a recession or depression and resulting poverty levels with cause many more.

All that said I am still at a loss of what the solutions are. As pp have said without lockdown , the health service will collapse (it's on the verge of it now!)
A lot of the countries that are living more normally had much stricter border control but we missed that opportunity nearly a year ago, and once the genie is out of the bottle, it cant be put back.

But people being unable to get appointments or being too fearful to go into hospitals would happen without the lockdown, and probably on an even bigger scale as the NHS would be over run.

More people will die as a result of lockdowns than if Covid. The difference is that they will be over several years rather than in one big hit. Delays in diagnosing illnesses eg cancer will be in next years deaths, the deterioration in people's physical and mental health will take its toll over the next decade. The effect of poverty in families losing jobs may not be felt until the children are of working age and their life chances are and life expectancy is less than it would have been and they die younger.

'There's a very simple solution to all this. To decide Covid is incurable and unavoidable (which it largely is) and to let hospitals carry on as they always have, dealing with the things they can deal with. '

Many, many conditions aren't 'incurable'. However nowadays we don't just let people die, we treat them.

Say you had asthma, would you really say 'no no leave me be! it isn’t curable so what's the point'. No you wouldn't, you would rightly expect treatment to manage and reduce the symptoms. Also, covid is indeed avoidable, hence social distancing and avoiding mixing socially.

@amusedtodeath1

I think you're full of it Carbuncle. You can't make it up fast enough. So not suicide's now? Not Poverty anymore? Now it half a million people who will die from lack of care because....wait carers are essential so they're still caring for the vulnerable and these are the same people you would happily throw to the wolves if it meant your life could go back to normal, so don't pretend you care about vulnerable people.

If you can quote the post where I said suicide was one of the main issues I'd appreciate it, thanks.

I also never said half a million people will die from lack of care.

I also never said anything about throwing people to the wolves or my life getting back to normal.

I can't really respond otherwise to your post because you seem to be reading things I haven't written.

@amusedtodeath1

Why would anyone die because of lockdown? What nonsense is this? Staying at home does not kill people.

I know one person locally that died as a direct result of the November lockdown. The gym was his way of coping with severe depression, without the gym (and contact with others) he saw no point in trying to battle the suicidal thoughts. Conversely I don't personally know anyone that has died either of or with covid

GetOffYourHighHorse

'Of course lockdown will kill many many more people than covid. But all people care about for now is covid and they are unable to lift their eyes away from it for a second to see that in their panic to avoid one single risk, they've set their whole world on fire.'

It astonishes me that nearly a year later this is the simplistic bollocks some still spout. It isnt 'all I care about' however I am able to understand that with the current massive surges there will not be a space for other emergencies if some kind of restrictions weren't in place. So there needs to be attempts to reduce the spread. It is bad enough now, imagine the catastrophe if there weren't any restrictions.”

It’s incredible, isn’t it? That and the “people who are dying are on borrowed time anyway” bile.
Deeply offensive to the many people who have lost loved ones who without this would have had decades of productive, valuable life ahead of them.

Surely any pandemic causes economic downturn whether you use a lockdown or not. The people most impacted will be those already on the poverty line so many of these deaths would sadly happen whatever we did.

@KeyworkerSchworker

What does that even mean?

Poorer people are having less access to everything because of lockdown. I fear that at least 20 years of work we have done on equality has been wiped out.

The rich are still getting richer throughout this pandemic - have you seen the stock market last year - even I, a MC no-mark made a return on my investments of 178% on the stock market. 178%!! Imagine you had put £1m in the stock market last year!

Private schools have whipped the arse out of the state sector while the Unions blocked education. This is not good. Again, I have been fine, my kids go to private school - but let me tell you that I feel very guilty about it when I hear of the mess of state education while my kids are flying. But I understand that inequality benefits no-one in the end.

Finding solutions to complex problems is my job, I run a company doing it and the government ask me to do this job for them on a regular basis. So if you're looking for skill and qualifications, I'm one of the few people in the world who actually has them.

Which begs the question, 'why is someone with all these skills and qualifications and problem solving ability posting shite on MN instead of actually using them to move towards world peace?'

@ineedaholidaynow

Surely any pandemic causes economic downturn whether you use a lockdown or not. The people most impacted will be those already on the poverty line so many of these deaths would sadly happen whatever we did.

There will be deaths from the virus, yes. But deaths from the lockdown itself are created, on top of virus deaths. They are the result of a choice For some people, it doesn't matter whether covid is a threat to them personally or not, they will still suffer due to lockdown. So they could get covid and be fine, but that doesn't matter because once they recover from covid, lockdown is waiting to get them. That's especially true for our children. Covid is no personal threat to them, but lockdown definitely is.

OP - I’ve never heard so much rubbish in my life. You probably read it on social media so of course it must be true! I suspect you are one of the anti- vaccine lot too.

Firstly we need recessions they cull the weak and unadoptable businesses so new more efficient businesses can grow and take their place. For example lots of the businesses that have gone like Arcadia and Debenhams were in a terrible state anyway.

Secondly nobody knows what would have happened if covid had just let rip. Hospitals would have been over run reducing other care and effectively the low death rate we have is because we have hospital spaces available if people had no choice but to stay at home and not go to hospital is suspect the death rate would be 2-3 times higher at least.

I've already described an effective solution, which is very simple and has been proven to work, earlier in the thread.

You suggested the kind of comprehensive monitoring that happened in Vò back in spring. But as you put it yourself, this only works when you have small numbers of infections as ‘things get confusing’ when you have infections everywhere. Right now, we have very large numbers of infections and we have infections everywhere. Plus, Vò was locked down. How do you see that model being extrapolated to work nationally?

I think lockdowns are absolutely hellish and should only be used as a last resort, but I think the kind of growth we saw over December in the UK is clearly last resort territory, because I can’t think of anything else that would work in the situations we had. I would have preferred to see more effective measures used earlier, but none of us have a time machine.

@noblegiraffe

Finding solutions to complex problems is my job, I run a company doing it and the government ask me to do this job for them on a regular basis. So if you're looking for skill and qualifications, I'm one of the few people in the world who actually has them.

Which begs the question, 'why is someone with all these skills and qualifications and problem solving ability posting shite on MN instead of actually using them to move towards world peace?'

Because I'm a human being who talks about things. Plus I'm figuring out how to ensure you get continued primary care during a pandemic at the moment, so I'm contributing in that way.

If Boris wanted to invite me to solve this for him, I'd be happy to.

'More people will die as a result of lockdowns than if Covid. The difference is that they will be over several years rather than in one big hit. Delays in diagnosing illnesses eg cancer will be in next years deaths, the deterioration in people's physical and mental health will take its toll over the next decade. '

As Chris Whitty has always said it is finding a balance. That is what they tried to do in Oct and Nov with the tiers to allow some normality in areas of low rates. When the numbers soar they can't just allow pubs to stay open in case the lack of social interaction depresses people. It's crisis management isn't it.

I'm sympathetic to anyyone struggling financially or feeling isolated but I also absolutely recognise with covid admissions surging there is no alternative but to keep the current restrictions in place.

'know one person locally that died as a direct result of the November lockdown. The gym was his way of coping with severe depression, without the gym (and contact with others) he saw no point in trying to battle the suicidal thoughts. '

One very tragic case. However I would suggest most people don't kill themselves because the gym was shut. We are allowed to exercise we can jog, run, cycle. There are ways of keeping fit without a gym.

@GoldenOmber

I've already described an effective solution, which is very simple and has been proven to work, earlier in the thread.

You suggested the kind of comprehensive monitoring that happened in Vò back in spring. But as you put it yourself, this only works when you have small numbers of infections as ‘things get confusing’ when you have infections everywhere. Right now, we have very large numbers of infections and we have infections everywhere. Plus, Vò was locked down. How do you see that model being extrapolated to work nationally?

I think lockdowns are absolutely hellish and should only be used as a last resort, but I think the kind of growth we saw over December in the UK is clearly last resort territory, because I can’t think of anything else that would work in the situations we had. I would have preferred to see more effective measures used earlier, but none of us have a time machine.

It annoys me having to state things twice. I'll put it in bold this time to help you.

You break the country up into much smaller areas.

It really isn't rocket science.

Working in smaller areas is much much more effective than treating the country as a huge mass. Dividing areas up is a very simple thing. It is effective.

Vo was locked down, but that level of control wouldn't be necessary, as all that's needed is a manageable amount of clear, daily data on a discrete area.

You agreed with the OP, you tried to say, MH was a reason, poverty was a reason and now a lack of carer's.

Yes people will die from all those things (except carer's, I think you're clutching straws on that one, unless we get over run and so many people get ill at once but surely that's a pretty good reason to keep numbers as low as possible), it's fucking horrendous that anyone is dying unnecessarily tbh. My objection is the half a million seemingly pulled out of thin air and the assumption that this figure means lockdown is not worth the cost.

The truth is nowhere near that many will die as a result of lockdown and it will in no way outweigh the people who would die without it.

@noblegiraffe

Finding solutions to complex problems is my job, I run a company doing it and the government ask me to do this job for them on a regular basis. So if you're looking for skill and qualifications, I'm one of the few people in the world who actually has them.

Which begs the question, 'why is someone with all these skills and qualifications and problem solving ability posting shite on MN instead of actually using them to move towards world peace?'

And why aren't all the governments of the world beating a path to Daily's door? If only they knew the solution to the pandemic was posting here on MN.

Poverty does kill a lot of people that's true, but not in this country, we have a system that means no one starves to death - benefits. So although you'd be skint no one needs be hungry/cold/uneducated, this is not the case in a large part of the world, but the UK is one of the richest countries in the world and even our poor are wealthier than most. There's no way half a million people will die from hunger/cold, in this country. No way

This is so naive!
Have you ever visited the poorest areas of the U.K. and seen what life in poverty is like?

Life expectancy has been up to 20 years lower in poverty stricken areas of the U.K. than in the wealthy areas.
Our poor have lower life expectancy than the average person in many middle income countries.

People go hungry in the U.K. every day. Why do you think there are so many food banks?

Have you never heard of fuel poverty? Lots of people don’t have central heating and can’t afford to buy or run plug in heaters.

Uneducated? Have you not seen the threads on here of all the children with SEN who are refused an education? Lots of schools are unfit for purpose and every year thousands of children leave illiterate and innumerate.

Poverty has been shown to be linked to premature death from suicide, cancer, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, accidents, violence, lung disease, obesity. So increased poverty will increase deaths from all of these over the next 50 years.

@TheDailyCarbunkle if you are as good as solving problems as you say you are, and as important as you think you are, why aren't you helping this Government or any other Government to get us out of this mess?

You break the country up into much smaller areas.

Okay, and then you lock down each of those smaller areas in the way Vò was locked down, and you end up with... national lockdown, because cases are so prevalent.

And you of course need the kind of close monitoring that Vò had, which of course was mostly brought in from outside Vò because Vò is tiny. So it’s doable to pour resources into one place from everywhere else, in the same way that China could bring medical staff and food into Wuhan. But how does it scale if every town and village in the country needs that kind of support? Where’s the ‘outside’ you pull from?

@amusedtodeath1

You agreed with the OP, you tried to say, MH was a reason, poverty was a reason and now a lack of carer's.

Yes people will die from all those things (except carer's, I think you're clutching straws on that one, unless we get over run and so many people get ill at once but surely that's a pretty good reason to keep numbers as low as possible), it's fucking horrendous that anyone is dying unnecessarily tbh. My objection is the half a million seemingly pulled out of thin air and the assumption that this figure means lockdown is not worth the cost.

The truth is nowhere near that many will die as a result of lockdown and it will in no way outweigh the people who would die without it.

You continue to believe that, if you wish. It isn't true and that will become very very obvious to you.

If you genuinely believe that your country can lose huge amounts of business, tax revenue and employment and come out the other side just fine, good on you. It has never happened in the history of the world, but maybe some miracle will happen now and you and your family will be fine. It's practically impossible but it's good you have hope.

My extreme frustration comes from the fact that people aren't being told, directly, the price they are paying. That bill will land on their doorsteps and blindside them over the next few years. And then they'll claim they didn't know.

But now you do know, because I told you. That's all I can do for now. It is so fucking infuriating.

I'm out of this discussion.

@GoldenOmber

You break the country up into much smaller areas.

Okay, and then you lock down each of those smaller areas in the way Vò was locked down, and you end up with... national lockdown, because cases are so prevalent.

And you of course need the kind of close monitoring that Vò had, which of course was mostly brought in from outside Vò because Vò is tiny. So it’s doable to pour resources into one place from everywhere else, in the same way that China could bring medical staff and food into Wuhan. But how does it scale if every town and village in the country needs that kind of support? Where’s the ‘outside’ you pull from?

As usual, having said I'm out I'm back in.

Had this approach been taken day one, cases would never have gotten to the point where everywhere was overrun. But even now, this approach would be better, just by default. Good data is better than bad data, always.

Right I am out now.

'The truth is nowhere near that many will die as a result of lockdown and it will in no way outweigh the people who would die without it.'

Exactly. The whole situation is grim and depressing however there is no alternative but to live like this for the foreseeable. Families and friends need to step up and support others struggling. We can't mix but a text or a phone call can lift someone's spirits so instead of moaning do something to help.

One very tragic case. However I would suggest most people don't kill themselves because the gym was shut. We are allowed to exercise we can jog, run, cycle. There are ways of keeping fit without a gym.

@GetOffYourHighHorse

I find this incredibly dismissive because you do not talk about Covid victims in the same way.

Do you say to the obese person who died of Covid - well they could have lost some weight?