Lockdown will claim 560,000 lives. Are lockdown fanatics are killing people.

[Billie18]

Worrying reports coming out indicating that Lockdowns will end up claiming the equivalent of more than 500,000 lives because of the health impact of the 'deep and prolonged recession that they will cause. It has been obvious that restrictive lock down measures will impact on the health of the whole population but concern has been shouted down by those in favor of lockdowns. But will those ignoring the dangers of lockdowns on the entire population be responsible for killing huge numbers of people. Killing far more people than any virus.

Fridget your posts are interesting, not least because I agree on the very difficult situation we would have faced with no vaccine. When people ride over this to have a go at small things (not on this thread esp just generally) I think it could have been incredibly bad without the break through.

But with a strain that is vaccine escaping we still have the option to tweak and start vaccinating with new version.

Or do you mean no tweak? Not sure if this is a possibility.

Or do you mean the time to get new vaccine out would be a big issue alone

I also think that people need to be realistic about so- called break through vaccines. There is no evidence that the vaccines on offer will prevent you from contracting or passing on the virus. Before mutation. If mutation effects known efficacy it effects severity of disease and likelihood of death in the most severely affected group.

Why do you think vaccination is not open to those most likely to be infected (ie with greater social contact) and therefore most likely to transmit? Parents, economically active?

What impact do you think vaccination of the over 70s by mid February will have on the NHS when ICUs are currently full with patients with an average age of 60?

The over 60s make up something like 75% of all hospital covid beds.

A lot of those are older than 60!

The ICU beds taken up by 50 and 60 year olds are mostly people in priority groups 4 and 6. A top London consultant was saying on the news yesterday but it has been said else where. There are very few ICU patients with covid that were previously in perfect health. Some but not many.

We should have group 4 vaccinated in mid February and group 6 done by mid March.

It is a very effective plan and the vaccination program is doing well

Thinking what they would do in the event of no vaccine, or a vaccine resistant strain ... has been the subject of academic articles and the odd DM shock story for decades

I don't read the Mail and wasn't aware of these academic articles - any chance of a link please?

Unfortunately we the electorate didn't make it clear to any political party that this was important to us as a nation, probably because it wasn't and we didn't want to pay for it - we bear collective responsibility

Not sure how we could have considered the importance of something we didn't even know about, but anyway surely what matters is the position we're in now ... and it's that position, with new variants popping up and questions over the vaccine, that I'd love to see addressed with something other than a hope that the jabs will get us all out of it

I am hopeful about the vaccine. Better than worry about a what if.

However the reason my naturally critical self is hopeful is because all the experts and data suggest a good outcome.

The new variants could possibly cause an issue but the adjustments to the vaccine is quick to do. Around 6 weeks Pfizer says. The oxford team reckon probably only 30 days for their tweaks.

Virus mutations were predicted all along. The scientists are cautious but no overly worried. The latest variants have all been tested and so far only more transmitable. That makes perfect sense. The virus will mutate to be more transmitable but less dangerous. Like the flu or a cold. This dominant variant will take time to achieve though.

I believe in the unlikely event of the virus behaving differently all of a sudden and/or the vaccine failing we still have options. You could madly enough say the latest variants speeding up transmission has given us more options than before.

@Ylvamoon

I think it's the narrative where people who aren't fit or working age are still considered valued members of society@Ylvamoon, even though they're not feeding the almighty economy. As you say, madness

But you do need the income from economy/ working age people to help out people who aren't fit or working age .
Poverty is real enough, people who are most affected when things are getting tough are people who are reliant on the state. (That is state pensions, continued health care and / or benefits.) When the cuts come in, it will be the groups we are "protecting " now, that will be suffering l9ng term. While the fit and healthy working age population will be able to move on in some form.
There must be a better, more effective way of dealing with this.

Poverty is a political choice

Go on then, what's the better, more effective way?

@TheDailyCarbunkle

The 'what's the alternative'? posts really bother me because it indicates that this generation has zero imagination or ingenuity if they think that just closing everything is the best we can do. Lockdown is the most moronic possible 'solution' to the situation, there is no nuance or thought put into it, it's literally 'shit, fuck everything in the bin.' As a 'strategy' it's straight out of the playbook of a panicking halfwit.

So what is your imaginative and ingenious suggestion (other than a vague "shield the vulnerable" which has been shown not to be practical). It really bothers me that there doesn't seem to be any viable solution and that people fear monger about the consequences of lock down.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

The over 60s make up something like 75% of all hospital covid beds.

A lot of those are older than 60!

The ICU beds taken up by 50 and 60 year olds are mostly people in priority groups 4 and 6. A top London consultant was saying on the news yesterday but it has been said else where. There are very few ICU patients with covid that were previously in perfect health. Some but not many.

We should have group 4 vaccinated in mid February and group 6 done by mid March.

It is a very effective plan and the vaccination program is doing well

It's not 75%. Nearly 60% are under 65 years old. Only 15% are over 75 and a tiny proportion of those are over 85. The vaccine programme prioritising by age groups is based on reducing deaths, rather than increasing ICU capacity.

A quarter of all hospital admissions are under 50. Sorry was going off memory and been a long day!

Anyway the largest percentage in hospital are still over 60.

ICU is yes a average younger age. However that is because they have priority over the more elderly and frail. Also a large percentage of these 50 and 60 year olds are in group 4 &6 on the priority list. Though obviously there are some previously healthier people. They are few in number according to the London consultant interviewed by the BBC.

Priority group 4 will be vaccinated by mid February. My area of London will start inviting theirs next week. Group 6 the national aim is in March.

Sorry forgot to say check out the graph above someone posted earlier.

It is very clear when you look at it per 100k of the population.

That and the fact 75% is over 50. I mean there really isn't a case to change the priority list.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

Sorry forgot to say check out the graph above someone posted earlier.

It is very clear when you look at it per 100k of the population.

That and the fact 75% is over 50. I mean there really isn't a case to change the priority list.

This is helpful to see

Not sure how we could have considered the importance of something we didn't even know about

Actually this scenario has been predicted by scientists and covered in the media for many, many years. You are expecting politicians to have a higher standard of diligence than the electorate which is only reasonable up to a point, because democracy requires that the government do what we vote them in to do.

surely what matters is the position we're in now

Yes, but I was responding to someone who was complaining about how we had got there!

I don't read the Mail and wasn't aware of these academic articles - any chance of a link please?

Would you mind looking it up yourself? It's not just the Mail (not the paper where I get my news, I'm sure you're the same) - I have sooo much home learning prep to do! It's very, very well covered. Try google scholar.

Thanks, Toptop - I'd never even heard of Google Scholar but I'll certainly have a go at searching that

Oh, and good luck with the prep

Thank you :) :)